Description: Das Projekt "Quantification of climate uncertainty for deep mitigation scenarios" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima durchgeführt. International climate policy anticipates sharply declining emissions and the possibility to even extract greenhouse gases from the atmosphere in the coming decades to avoid dangerous climate change. This project explores the uncertainties in climate projections for such a possible future. As anthropogenic climate change and its ecological, societal and economic impacts are becoming increasingly significant, nations are aiming at curbing global emissions onto a downward trajectory to avoid dangerous climate change. The climate negotiations reality points towards a peak in global emissions in the next couple of decades with a steep decline afterwards. This comes with the assumption that technologies to actively extract greenhouse gases from the atmosphere will be available. Climate models are valuable to inform policy. However, the focus of these models has been on high emission scenarios and little attention has been given scenarios with sharply declining emissions. Yet, because of the highly non-linear behaviour of the climate system, the behaviour of the climate system can differ significantly between scenarios that assume either high or very low emissions in the future. This project aims at exploring and probabilistically quantifying the future climate system response to very low emission scenarios. In order to gain an understanding which is as robust as possible, a suite of climate models with varying complexity and strengths is used. Particularly the climatic response in terms of global greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature increase will be assessed, as they are key climatic indicator in the international negotiations. The quantification of climate projections for extremely low emission scenarios will help to elucidate the feasibility of such scenarios from a physical science perspective. This project hence aims at informing international climate policy about possible physical limitations and constraints imposed by the climate system on future climate change, even with very sharp emission reductions.
Types:
SupportProgram
Origin: /Bund/UBA/UFORDAT
Tags: Zürich ? Emissionsszenario ? Ökologie ? Gewächshaus ? Klimaprojektion ? Treibhausgaskonzentration ? Szenario ? Gasförmiger Stoff ? Internationale Klimapolitik ? Emission ? Emissionsminderung ? Anthropogener Klimawandel ? Klimamodell ? Naturwissenschaft ? Technik ? Trajektorie ? Klimapolitik ? Wertermittlung ? Wirkung ? Globale Emission ? Klima ? Globale Aspekte ? Treibhausgas ? Politik ? Klimasystem ? Atmosphäre ? Klimaszenario ? Indikator ? Klimawandel ? BEWERTEN ? EXTREM ? Erlass [Recht] ? GEFAEHRLICH ? HILF ? MOEGLICHKEIT ? OEKONOMISCH ? PERSPEKTIVE ? PROJEKT ? Temperaturerhöhung ? VERANTWORTUNG ? VERFUEGBAR ? VERHALTEN ? VORGABE ? DAUER ? EMISSIONSREDUCTION ? BEREICH ?
License: cc-by-nc-nd/4.0
Language: Deutsch
Time ranges: 2011-04-01 - 2014-03-31
Accessed 1 times.