Description: Das Projekt "Data Limits for Diagnosing High Resolution Atmospheric Energy Budgets" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Wien, Institut für Meteorologie und Geophysik durchgeführt. The validation of forecast models and their parameterizations is a central issue in meteorology. One familiar approach isto determine sub-gridscale or diabatic terms indirectly from gridscale analysis data using the budget equations. This method works best on large scales but is increasingly used also on smaller scales to keep in pace with the resolution of forecast models. This decreases the signal to noise ratio since only the resolution of the budget calculations is increased but not the resolution of the underlying observational network. There will be a critical scale below which diagnosed residuals become worthless for forecastmodel validation. The challenge of the project is to objectively define this critical scale in terms of an error level allowed for the diagnosed terms. The error variance of the diagnosed terms must be smaller than a certain threshold. To calculate the error variances, it is planned to perform observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) with a primitive equation model that allow to simulate the main error sources affecting the quality of the diagnosed terms. The outcome of the project should be a software package that objectively estimates, (i) the observation density and accuracy needed to reach a prespecified accuracy with the diagnostic method, and (ii) the statistical significance of systematic differences between diagnosed and parameterized diabatic terms. Goal (i) may be useful for the design of future field experiments. Goal (ii) can help to avoid misinterpretations of comparisons between diagnosed and forecast quantities.It is planned to use the EM/DM forecast system of the 'Deutscher Wetterdienst', for the OSSEs. The accompanying diagnostic model that implements the indirect method for the moisture and heat equations is already available. The remaining task is to develop the statistical method and to design and carry out the OSSEs. This should be a reachable goal within a 2 year project.
Types:
SupportProgram
Origin: /Bund/UBA/UFORDAT
Tags: Wien ? Meteorologie ? Main ? Anfechtung ? Software ? Wetterbeobachtung ? Daten ? Energie ? Geophysik ? Lärm ? Modellversuch ? Monitoring ? Prognosemodell ? Simulation ? Statistische Analyse ? Wettervorhersage ? REACH ? Freilandversuch ? Rückstand ? Schwellenwert ? Statistik ? Verpackung ? Wetter ? Kurzfristige Wetterprognose ? Langfristige Wetterprognose ?
License: cc-by-nc-nd/4.0
Language: Deutsch
Time ranges: 1998-02-01 - 2000-01-31
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