Description: Das Projekt "Entwicklung eines europaeischen Mehrmodellsystems fuer die saisonale bis interannuale Vorhersage" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie durchgeführt. Objective/Problems to be solved: Seasonal prediction of climate has shown promise in recent years, in particular for the tropics (ENSO), but also for the extratropics and Europe, with potential important socio-economic benefits. There is a need to further develop this capability and to involve user communities to maximize benefits. Scientific objectives and approach: The overall objective is the development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to interannual climate prediction, to integrate specific user application models and to assess the economic value of the system. Six global coupled ocean-atmosphere models developed at different institutes in Europe will be installed on a common supercomputer. A set of multi-model ensemble hindcasts will be produced using reanalysis data for initialisation and validation. By including independent models in the ensemble, the impact of model uncertainty on seasonal predictions can be quantified. The validation will include an assessment of the predictability of El Nino and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and seasonal weather elements over Europe. The project calls for about 30 years of ensemble integration using ERA-40 data (with existing ERA-15 data as a back up). Each integration will be 6 months long, and each model will be used to provide model-ensembles. Empirical correction techniques will be used to provide model-dependent bias corrected data. Thorough evaluation of the meteorological and oceanographic skill of the hindcasts, using probabilistic validation tools, will be made. Evaluation of the predictability of El Nino, the NAO and seasonal weather elements over Europe and tropical Africa will be undertaken. Data from the hindcasts will be made available to the research, user, and forecasting community. A number of sensitivity studies will be undertaken and the importance of using coupled models, and of using ocean and satellite altimeter data will be evaluated. Two methods for providing downscaled products will be assessed. Data from the hindcasts will be input into quantitative user application models for predicting probability distributions of crop yield over Europe, and incidence of disease in the tropical Africa. This will be used for a quantitative assessment of the value of the forecast system in the two sectors. Expected impacts: The project paves the way for a fully operational seasonal climate prediction system, which would give important benefits for almost every sector of society in Europe and in regions of European interests. Prime Contractor: European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); Reading.
Types:
SupportProgram
Origin: /Bund/UBA/UFORDAT
Tags: Kombinationswirkung ? Meteorologie ? Klimaprognose ? Bodenfruchtbarkeit ? Ernteertrag ? Hardware ? Meereskunde ? Satellit ? Software ? Topographie ? Wetterdaten ? Prognosedaten ? Tropenkrankheit ? Wirkungsmodell ? Atmosphärenmodell ? Bewertungskriterium ? Daten ? Datenverarbeitung ? Jahreszeit ? Klimamodell ? Mathematisches Modell ? Quantitative Analyse ? Statistische Analyse ? Studie ? Tropengebiet ? Umweltgeschichte ? Wettervorhersage ? Meeresgewässer ? Modellierung ? Afrika ? Europa ? Nordatlantik ? Krankheit ? Klimamonitoring ? Klimaentwicklung ? Wetter ? Empirische Untersuchung ? Globale Aspekte ? Fernerkundung ? Fischerei ? Datenerhebung ? Katastrophe ? Sozioökonomische Merkmale ? Klima ? Klimawandel ? Untersuchungsprogramm ? forecasting ? Nutzungsanspruch ? resources of the sea ? environemental protection ?
Region: Hamburg
Bounding box: 9.99302° .. 9.99302° x 53.55073° .. 53.55073°
License: cc-by-nc-nd/4.0
Language: Deutsch
Time ranges: 2000-03-21 - 2003-03-20
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