Description: Das Projekt "Die Nutzung von Biomasse fuer die Produktion von Massenchemikalien und wirtschaftliche Bewertung" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Bundesforschungsanstalt für Landwirtschaft Braunschweig-Völkenrode (FAL) durchgeführt. General Information: As the gasoline sector has been studied earlier already (von Bremen, 1986) in this investigation the remainings parts of the modelled petrochemical industry are put into the focus. The introductory chapters give an insight into the industry as far it comes into contact with ethanol and methanol. The estimations are based on a multiperiod sectoral process analysis model dynamic and mixed-integer components. The model formulation is oriented at the requirements set by the industry's structure as far as it can be influenced by an expanding ethanol and methanol economy. The estimations are based on statistical information reflecting the situation of the FRG in 1983. 6 scenarios have been estimated, using 3 price constellations for comparisons. Most time, the results tables show conditions simulated for the final subperiod, i.e. after adjustments have take place . The calculation underline that ethanol and methanol are not competitive under free market conditions. Small quantities excepted, ethanol for industrial use would flow into the ethylene pool where substitution values are low. To force larger volumes of ethanol or/and methanol into the chemical industry, expensive measures of economic policy would by necessary. Different choices of trade restrictions have been simulated (in addition to the ethanol and methanol as gasoline components). Strategy costs of trade-restricted scenarios tend to be very high, reflecting disadvantageous production structures as well as high costs of investments necessity for adjustments of production facilities. Compared to methanol, ethanol is the more realistic basis for ethylene syntheses. If methanol is simulated to be the raw material for ethylene synthesis, this seems to be very expensive and problematic choice within the framework of the whole industry. Existing naphtha facilities would still supply most of the ethylene needs. Prices simulated for the years 1986 resp. 2000 (15 resp. 50 US Dollar per barrel of crude oil) result in a considerable change of production structures at the intermediates level.
Types:
SupportProgram
Origin: /Bund/UBA/UFORDAT
Tags: Benzin ? Ethylen ? Erdöl ? Ethanol ? Methanol ? Bremen ? Bundesrepublik Deutschland ? Chemische Industrie ? Langzeitwirkung ? Petrochemische Industrie ? Kosten-Wirksamkeits-Analyse ? Kostenrechnung ? Monetäre Bewertung ? Szenario ? Wirtschaftspolitik ? Statistische Daten ? Wirtschaftsstruktur ? Biomassenutzung ? Kostensteigerung ? Chemikalien ? Mathematisches Modell ? Ökonomische Analyse ? Politik ? Produktionskosten ? Produktionstechnik ? Rohstoff ? Statistische Analyse ? Verfahrenstechnik ? Vergleichsanalyse ? Wettbewerbsfähigkeit ? Wirtschaftlichkeit ? Handelsbeschränkung ? Modellierung ? Prozesskettenanalyse ? Investitionskosten ? Ökonomische Bewertung ? Simulationsmodell ? Preisentwicklung ? Wirtschaftliche Aspekte ? Landwirtschaft ? Ökonomisches Instrument ? Schadensregulierung ? Investition ? Biomasse ? Untersuchungsprogramm ? Dynamische Analyse ? Kostenentwicklung ? forecasting ? Marktkonformität ? Substitutionseffekt ?
Region: Lower Saxony
Bounding box: 9.16667° .. 9.16667° x 52.83333° .. 52.83333°
License: cc-by-nc-nd/4.0
Language: Deutsch
Time ranges: 1987-01-01 - 1987-02-15
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