Das Projekt "Thermohaline overturning - at risk? (THOR)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Hamburg, Department Geowissenschaften durchgeführt. THOR will establish an operational system that will monitor and forecast the development of the North Atlantic THC on decadal time scales and access its stability and the risk of a breakdown in a changing climate. Together with pre-existing data sets, ongoing observations within the project will allow precise quantitative monitoring of the Atlantic THC and its sources. This will, for the first time, allow an assessment of the strength of the Atlantic THC and its sources in a consistent manner and will provide early identification of any systematic changes in the THC that might occur. Analysis of palaeo observations covering the last millennium and millennium time scale experiments with coupled climate models will be carried out to identify the relevant key processes and feedback mechanisms between ocean, atmosphere, and cryosphere. In THOR, the combined effect of various global warming scenarios and melting of the Greenland ice sheet will also be thoroughly assessed in a coupled climate model. Through these studies and through the assimilation of systematic oceanic observations at key locations into ocean circulation models, THOR will forecast the development of the Atlantic THC and its variability until 2025, using global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. THOR will also assess induced climate implications of changes in the THC and the probability of extreme climate events with special emphasis on the European/North Atlantic region. THOR builds upon techniques, methods and models developed during several projects funded within FP5 and FP6 as well as many nationally funded projects. The project will contribute to Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES), to Global Observing Systems such as to the Global Ocean Observing system (GOOS), and to the International Polar Year (IPY).
Das Projekt "Climate Change and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern Europe (CLAVIER)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie durchgeführt. Observational records show that the global climate is changing and ongoing changes are also visible in Central Eastern Europe. About 64 percent of all catastrophic events in Europe since 1980 can directly be attributed to weather and climate extremes. Climate change projections show even an increasing likelihood of extremes. Certainly negative impacts of climate change will involve significant economic losses in several regions of Europe, while others may bring health or welfare problems somewhere else. Within CLAVIER three representative Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) will be studied in detail: Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. Researches from 6 countries and different disciplines, will identify linkages between climate change and its impact on weather patterns with consequences on air pollution, extreme events, and on water resources. Furthermore, an evaluation of the economic impact on agriculture, tourism, energy supply and the public sector will be conducted. This is of increasing importance for CEEC, which are currently facing a rapid economic development, but also for the European Union as e.g. Romanias and Bulgarias high vulnerability from extreme events such as floods will impact not only the respective economic goals for joining the EU but also the EU solidarity fund. CLAVIER will focus on ongoing and future climate changes in Central and Eastern European Countries using measurements and existing regional scenarios to determine possible developments of the climate and to address related uncertainty. In addition, climate projections with very high detail will be carried out for CEEC to fulfill the need for a large amount of detail in time and space which is inherent in local and regional impact assessment. CLAVIER will establish a large data base, tools and methodologies, which contribute to reasonable planning for a successful development of society and economy in Central and Eastern European countries under climate change conditions.
Das Projekt "The terrestrial Carbon cycle under climate variability and extremes a Pan-European synthesisv (CARBO-EXTREME)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie durchgeführt. Objective: The aim of this project is to achieve an improved knowledge of the terrestrial carbon cycle in response to climate variability and extremes, to represent and apply this knowledge over Europe with predictive terrestrial carbon cycle modelling, to interpret the model predictions in terms of vulnerability of the terrestrial in particular soil carbon pools and give according advice to EU climate and soil protection policies. This objective will be achieved by integrating three major types of recent and new solid scientific carbon cycle data, from: - soil process studies, - a network of established ecosystem manipulation experiments, and - long-term observations spanning several times-scales (e.g. eddy covariance data, tree rings and growth, crop yields, long-term remote sensing data on soil moisture and vegetation activity and soil carbon inventories). The integration will be reached by establishing a consistent and harmonized data base and by confronting the terrestrial carbon cycle models with the multiple data sets within a Bayesian model identification and improvement procedure. Specific model development concerning processes affected by extreme events (e.g. soil carbon destabilization, tree growth response incl. lag effects and mortality) will be included and followed by model testing and improvement against the data made available in the project. The improved models will simulate terrestrial processes relevant to carbon balance and soil erosion at pan- European scale using regionalized climate scenarios with explicit inclusion of extreme climatic events. Since we are using several climate scenarios and an ensemble of models we will be able to characterize the uncertainties in prediction coming from models and climate scenarios. We will interpret the empirical evidence from the observational work and the model simulations in a framework of vulnerability assessment and disseminate and discuss results with stakeholders at EU level.
Das Projekt "Assessment of the European Terrestrial Carbon Balance (CARBOEUROPE)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie durchgeführt. The overarching aim of the CarboEurope-IP is to understand, quantify and predict the terrestrial carbon balance of Europe and the uncertainty at local, regional and continental scale. This is achieved by (1) executing a strategically focussed set of surface based ecological measurements of carbon pools and CO2 exchange, (2) further enhancement of an atmospheric high precision observation system for CO2 and other trace gases, (3) execution of a regional high spatial resolution experiment and (4) integration of these components by means of innovative data assimilation systems and modelling. The key innovation of the CarboEurope-IP is solving the scientific challenge of quantifying the terrestrial carbon balance at different scales and with known, acceptable uncertainties. The increase in spatial and temporal resolution of the observational and modelling program will allow for the first time a consistent application of a multiple constraint approach of bottom-up and top-down estimates to determine the terrestrial carbon balance of Europe with the geographical patterns and variability of sources and sinks. CarboEurope-IP aims at providing a system for carbon accounting for the European continent, and it will further investigate the main controlling mechanisms of carbon cycling in European ecosystems. CarboEurope-IP integrates and expands the research efforts of 95 European institutes. CarboEurope-IP addresses basic scientific questions of high political relevance.
Das Projekt "Joint Global Ocean Flux Studies im Nordatlantik - Synthesephase II: CARINA - Synthese und Interpretation der CO2-Daten im Nordatlantik" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Leibniz-Institut für Ostseeforschung durchgeführt. Es ist vorgesehen, alle fuer den Nordatlantik existierenden CO2-Daten einem konsistenten Datensatz zusammenzufassen und als elektronischen 'CO2-Atlas' darzustellen. Nach Abschluss aehnlicher Projekte fuer den Indischen und Pazifischen Ozean wird mit CARINA ein entscheidender Schritt getan zur Erstellung eines globalen CO2-Datensatzes. Fuer die globale Synthese nimmt der Nordatlantik eine besondere Stellung ein, da hier bedingt durch die ozeanische Zirkulation die staerkste Aufnahme von anthropogenem CO2 zu beobachten ist. Der Erstellung des CO2-Datensatzes geht eine sorgfaeltige Qualitaetsanalyse voraus, die unter Umstaenden auch zum Anbringen von Korrekturen fuehrt. Der zu erstellende elektronische CO2-Atlas dient der Darstellung der gegenwaertigen anthropogenen CO2-Speicherung im Ozean sowie der Validierung und Initialisierung von Modellen, mit denen die ozeanische Aufnahme von anthropogenem CO2 fuer die kommenden Jahrzehnte simuliert werden und die somit ein zentrales Element fuer Klimaprognosen darstellen. Das Datenmaterial nutzt zudem dem Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) fuer seine periodischen Bewertungen und Prognosen anthropogener Klimaaenderungen.
Das Projekt "Europaeisches Aerosol-Lidar-Forschungsnetzwerk zur Schaffung einer Aerosolklimatologie" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie durchgeführt. Objective: Problems to be solved: Aerosols affect life on earth in several ways. They play an important role in the climate system; the effect of aerosols on the global climate system is one of the major uncertainties of present climate predictions. They play a major role in atmospheric chemistry and hence affect the concentrations of other potentially harmful atmospheric constituents, e.g. ozone. They are an important controlling factor for the radiation budget, in particular in the UV-B part of the spectrum. At ground level, they can be harmful, even toxic, to man, animals, and plants. Because of these adverse effects that aerosols can have on human life, it is necessary to achieve an advanced understanding of the processes that generate, redistribute, and remove aerosols in the atmosphere. A quantitative dataset describing the aerosol vertical, horizontal, and temporal distribution, including its variability on a continental scale, is necessary. Such a dataset could be used to validate and improve models that predict the future state of the atmosphere and its dependence on different scenarios describing economic development, including those actions taken to preserve the quality of the environment. No suitable data set for this purpose presently exists. Scientific objectives and approach: EARLINET will establish a quantitative comprehensive statistical database of the horizontal, vertical, and temporal distribution of aerosols on a continental scale. The goal is to provide aerosol data with unbiased sampling, for important selected processes, and air-mass history, together with comprehensive analyses of these data. The objectives will be reached by implementing a network of 21 stations distributed over most of Europe, using advanced quantitative laser remote sensing to directly measure the vertical distribution of aerosols, supported by a suite of more conventional observations. Special care will be taken to assure data quality, including intercomparisons at instrument and evaluation levels. A major part of the measurements will be performed according to a fixed schedule to provide an unbiased statistically significant data set. Additional measurements will be performed to specifically address important processes that are localised either in space or time. Back-trajectories derived from operational weather prediction models will be used to characterise the history of the observed air parcels, accounting explicitly for the vertical distribution. Expected impacts: EARLINET will make a major contribution to the quantification of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions and concentrations of aerosol, quantification of their budgets, radiative properties and prediction of future trends. It will also further the understanding of physical and chemical processes related to these species, their long range transport and deposition, and the interaction of aerosols with clouds.
Das Projekt "Inverse Modellierung atmosphärischer chemischer Konstituenten (IMACCO)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Institut für Chemie und Dynamik der Geosphäre ICG-1: Stratospäere durchgeführt. The General ObjectivesToday, it is widely recognised that the present changes in the earth's environment, challenges our ability to detect and understand the various atmospheric processes and to assess the resulting impacts. The urgently needed knowledge about the present state of the atmosphere as part of the earth system, its atmospheric trace gas and aerosol budgets and their future variability requires reliable analyses, resting on information about observations of the governing processes. The prevailing problem: Even increasingly accurate and comprehensive measurements, only provide sparse snapshots of the instantaneous state of the system. Numerical models produce complete space-time data sets, based on our present, yet incomplete knowledge of the underlying processes. Hence, the results of pure model calculations are of limited and, more importantly, often unknown validity. The solution: Inversion: Improved conclusions must be inferred from processing procedures, which are able to combine observational data with models in a consistent and synergistic manner. The requested techniques can only be provided by advanced spatio-temporal data assimilation and inversion methods. The mission, objective and work program of IMACCO are aligned to this basic principle. A key technique adopted here is the variational calculus, resting on the tangent-linear and ad joint model derivatives. The four-dimensional variational data assimilation method is central to the methods used.
Das Projekt "ForMaT2: CMF - Clima Media Factory Potsdam (Innovationslabore)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Hochschule für Film und Fernsehen Konrad Wolf durchgeführt. Das interdisziplinäre Vorhaben Climate Media Factory Potsdam (CMF) verknüpft interdisziplinär Expertisen der Hochschule für Film und Fernsehen Konrad Wolf Potsdam-Babelsberg (HFF) und des Potsdam Instituts für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK). Das Forschungs-, Entwicklungs- und Wissenspotenzial beider Einrichtungen wird einem bisher nicht wahrgenommenen Verwertungszusammenhang zugeführt. Die Verwertungsperspektiven beziehen sich auf die im Screening identifizierten Medienbedarfe, auf die Marktdefizite der Integration klimawissenschaftlicher Expertise in die Entwicklung von Medienprodukten und auf die unter anderem als Folge dieser Defizite identifizierten Produktmängel und ungenutzten Potenziale für Klimamedien. In zwei aufzubauenden Innovationslaboren soll die Entwicklungsarbeit im Hinblick auf die Verwertung erfolgen - einerseits als wissensbasierte Klimamedien auf den Medienmärkten und andererseits gegenüber den weltweit agierenden Akteuren und Institutionen der immer bedeutsamer werdenden weltweiten Klimakampagnen. Im Rahmen des Screenings wurden Innovationslabore konzipiert, die sich darauf fokussieren, Schnittstellen zu finden und klimawissenschaftliche Erkenntnisse in Medienprodukte zu transferieren. Die Innovationslabore haben prozessinnovierende wie produktinnovierende FuE-Ansätze zum Gegenstand.
Das Projekt "A Europe-South America network for climate change assessment and impact studies in La Plata Basin (CLARIS LPB)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement durchgeführt. Objective: The CLARIS LPB Project aims at predicting the regional climate change impacts on La Plata Basin (LPB) in South America, and at designing adaptation strategies for land-use, agriculture, rural development, hydropower production, river transportation, water resources and ecological systems in wetlands. In order to reach such a goal, the project has been built on the following four major thrusts. First, improving the description and understanding of decadal climate variability is of prime importance for short-term regional climate change projections (2010-2040). Second, a sound approach requires an ensemble of coordinated regional climate scenarios in order to quantify the amplitude and sources of uncertainties in LPB future climate at two time horizons: 2010-2040 for adaptation strategies and 2070-2100 for assessment of long-range impacts. Such coordination will allow to critically improve the prediction capacity of climate change and its impacts in the region. Third, adaptation strategies to regional scenarios of climate change impacts require a multi-disciplinary approach where all the regional components (climate, hydrology, land use, land cover, agriculture and deforestation) are addressed in a collaborative way. Feedbacks between the regional climate groups and the land use and hydrology groups will ensure to draw a first-order feedback of future land use and hydrology scenarios onto the future regional climate change. Fourth, stakeholders must be integrated in the design of adaptation strategies, ensuring their dissemination to public, private and governmental policy-makers. Finally, in continuity with the FP6 CLARIS Project, our project will put a special emphasis in forming young scientists in European institutes and in strengthening the collaborations between European and South American partners. The project is coordinated with the objectives of LPB, an international project on La Plata Basin that has been endorsed by the CLIVAR and GEWEX Panels.
Das Projekt "Anticipating climate change and biospheric feedbacks within the Earth system to 2200 (GREENCYCLES II)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von The Chancellor, Masters and Scholars of the University of Cambridge durchgeführt. There is a pressing need to improve our understanding of climate processes and their impacts in order to develop appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures. Increasing concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) are known to be causing changes in global climate patterns, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. However, our ability to predict future climatic states is still limited for a variety of reasons. Key among these is our understanding of the coupled behaviour of the components of the Earth system that contribute to the evolution of GHG concentrations, climate responses, and the impacts of environmental change. Earth System Models (ESMs) have emerged as our most important tool with which to test our understanding and predict the coupled behaviour of the many interacting components. However, a variety of recent observations indicate that changes are occurring at faster rates than predicted, suggesting that we are underestimating the strength of feedbacks in the Earth system. We propose a research training programme that will have as its scientific focus the evaluation, improvement, and application of a range of different ESMs. We will consider all the important anthropogenic greenhouse gases and will undertake a range of projects, broadly classed into data and model benchmarking, marine processes, terrestrial processes, high latitude feedbacks, and coupled modelling. Science projects by individual fellows will enhance links between network partners as well as considerably improve our understanding of Earth system feedbacks. A comprehensive, coordinated range of training events will be provided. We will foster the next generation of Earth system scientists and reduce uncertainties in future Earth system behaviour, thereby greatly improving the quality of knowledge available to policy makers and significantly strengthening European science.
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