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FP5-EESD, Carbon Variability Studies by Ships of Opportunity

Objective: A prototype North Atlantic ocean CO2 observing system of regular basin-wide surface pCO2, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and related measurements using ships of opportunity will be established. Existing observations of ocean CO2 will be used to inform the interpolation of these data to the entire ocean basin. We will use recent advances in the understanding of gas exchange to reliably estimate flux from pCO2 observations. CAVASSOO will provide greatly improved estimates of the uptake of CO2 by the North Atlantic, how this varies regionally, seasonally and from year to year. These will be used to improve estimates of European and North American terrestrial (vegetation) sinks, using atmospheric inverse modelling techniques. The combination of basin-wide observation and modelling in this project will help to reconcile the differing estimates of the net CO2 flux over Europe and North America, an important element in the EU' s response to the Kyoto agreement. Prime Contractor: University of East Anglia, School of Environmental Sciences; Norwich/UK.

FP5-EESD, Aircraft Emissions: Contribution of Different Climate Components to Changes in Radiative Forcing-Tradeoff to Reduce Atmospheric Impact

Objective/Problems to be solved: Several factors are important when impact from aircraft emissions are studied and measures are taken to reduce aircraft impact. Emissions from aircraft flying at cruising altitudes (8 to 13 km) affect atmospheric composition in a height region where there might be significant climate impact through changes in the distribution of compounds like CO2, ozone, methane and the frequency and extent of contrails. Future emissions from aircraft are expected to increase much more rapidly than emission in general, therefore, not only will the overall impact of aircraft emissions increase, but also the importance relative to the total climate impact. The emissions occur in specific flight corridor where the atmospheric impact is significant. A large fraction of the emission, may be as much as one third, occur in the lower stratosphere, where atmospheric residence times are long and impact of emissions generally larger than in the upper troposphere. There are several options to reduce future impact from aircraft like fuel efficiency, pollution control, technology improvement and traffic routing, however, for the control measures to be efficient it has to be based on the estimates of the importance of the different climate compounds. Scientific objectives and approach: The main objectives of TRADEOFF are: To calculate future changes in climate compounds in the atmosphere and the contributions from aircraft emissions to climate changes, to reduce the large uncertainties in the current calculations of the impact from future air traffic, and to provide industry and decision-makers with options to reduce future climate impact from aircraft emissions. Special objectives are: 1) To further develop current Chemical Transport Models (CTMs) and to test them against observations to improve their capability to estimate atmospheric impact, 2) to quantify the relative contributions of individual climate compounds emitted by future aircraft (e.g., CO2, O3, CH4, particles, contrails, H2O from supersonic aircraft) to radiative forcing and 3) to perform studies in the context of options for emission reductions. A co-ordinated 3 year research project will be performed, which includes the use of improved emission data base, the development of atmospheric model tools; estimates of changes in atmospheric composition and radiative forcing; analysis of options for reducing climate change. The studies will focus on changes in the lower stratosphere (LS) and the upper troposphere (UT), where perturbations of gaseous compounds and particles are likely to have a strong impact on climate. Prime Contractor: University of Oslo, Department of Geophysics; Oslo/Norway.

FP5-EESD, Response Strategies to Climate Change in Management of European Forests

Objective: The project is studying and developing adaptive strategies for sustainable forest management in the European forests under the global climate change. Mechanism and impacts are addressed how forest production and carbon sequestration are controlled under the current and changing climate through management within the limits set by sustainable forestry for developing management strategies to adapt the European forests to global climate change. Prime Contractor: University of Joensuu, Faculty of Forestry; Joensuu/Finland.

Grundlagen für die Prognose, Überwachung und nachhaltige Regulierung von Schädlingen im Obst- und Freilandgemüsebau

Die hohen Ansprüche an die Qualität von Obst und Gemüse führen zu einer besonders geringen Tole-ranz für Beeinträchtigungen durch Schädlinge. Deshalb muss deren wirkungsvolle und umweltschonende Regulierung auch in Zukunft garantiert sein, selbst unter dem Einfluss des Klimawandels und beim Auftreten neuer invasiver Arten. Als Grundlage für die Überwachung und für neue Integrierte Bekämpfungsstrategien liefert das Tätigkeitsfeld Kenntnisse über die Biologie von Schädlingen (Insekten, Milben) und Nützlingen in den Agrarökosystemen des Obstbaus und des Freilandgemüsebaus. Es stellt Phänologiemodelle und Entscheidungshilfesysteme (Decision support systems DSS) für die Praxis und für die vorausschauende Beurteilung von Folgen des Klimawandels bereit, entwickelt biologische und biotechnische Pflanzenschutzmassnahmen und stellt die Diagnostik von Quarantäneschädlingen sicher. Dies Arbeiten leisten signifikante Beiträge zu den thematischen Schwerpunkten 'Ökologische Intensivierung' sowie 'Klimaschutz und Anpassung an Klimawandel'. Die Leistungen erfolgen schwerpunktmässig im Bereich des Kernthemas 'Verbesserung der Pflanzenproduktion, insbesondere unter Einbezug von Pflanzenschutz, Sorten und Saat- und Pflanzgut'. In diesem Projekt werden Leistungen bei der Diagnostik von Quarantäneschädlingen zur Verfügung gestellt (in Zusammenarbeit mit FB 12 Diagnostik und Risikobeurteilung Pflanzenschutz) und wissenschaftliche Unterstützung für die kantonalen Fachstellen geboten.

Grundlagen für Prognose und Überwachung von Schädlingen im Obst- und Gemüsebau unter aktuellen und zukünftigen klimatischen Bedingungen

1. Schnelle und zuverlässige Informationen über potenzielle Risiken sind für die Entscheidungsfindung im Pflanzenschutz essenziell, weshalb die verwendeten Prognose- und Überwachungswerkzeuge auf Grundlage der Biologie der betreffenden Schadorganismen ausgebaut und kontinuierlich weiterentwickelt werden müssen. 2. Zudem ergeben sich, mit der als Fakt anerkannten Klimaänderung, massive Änderungen im Schadenspotenzial durch modifizierte Lebenszyklen vorhandener Arten oder durch invasive Arten. Das Prognosesystem SOPRA bietet die Möglichkeit für eine kontinuierliche Weiterentwicklung und Ergänzung an Bedeutung gewinnender Arten. 3. Die entwickelten Artmodelle können weiterhin genutzt werden, um zukünftige klimatische Szenarien zu analysieren. Durch die umfassende Verfügbarkeit und Zuverlässigkeit von SOPRA sind positive Verhaltensänderungen der Praxis zu erwarten. 4. Durch das optimale Timing von Pflanzenschutzmaßnahmen können unnötige PSM-Applikationen vermieden, das Risiko für die Entwicklung von Resistenzen gesenkt und PSM-Rückstände reduziert werden. Gleichzeitig werden Ressourcen sowie Arbeitszeit eingespart und damit die Konkurrenzfähigkeit der Schweizer Spezialkulturen erhöht. 5. Dabei werden mit Einbindung der klimatischen Szenarien zukünftige Probleme frühzeitig identifiziert und bewertet, um entsprechende Maßnahmen zur Erhaltung der Nachhaltigkeit im Pflanzenschutz einzuleiten.

Quantifying Weather and Climate Impacts on Health in Developing Countries (QWECI)

Objective: One of the most dramatic and immediate impacts of climate variation is that on disease, especially the vector-borne diseases that disproportionally affect the poorest people in Africa. Although we can clearly see that, for example, an El Nino event triggers Rift Valley Fever epidemics, we remain poor at understanding why particular areas are vulnerable and how this will change in coming decades, since climate change is likely to cause entirely new global disease distributions. This applies to most vector borne disease. At the same time, we do not know currently the limit of predictability of the specific climate drivers for vector-borne disease using state-of-the-art seasonal forecast models, and how best to use these to produce skilful infection-rate predictions on seasonal timescales. The QWeCI project thus aims to understand at a more fundamental level the climate drivers of the vector-borne diseases of malaria, Rift Valley Fever, and certain tick-borne diseases, which all have major human and livestock health and economic implications in Africa, in order to assist with their short-term management and make projections of their future likely impacts. QWeCI will develop and test the methods and technology required for an integrated decision support framework for health impacts of climate and weather. Uniquely, QWeCl will bring together the best in world integrated weather/climate forecasting systems with heath impacts modelling and climate change research groups in order to build an end-to-end seamless integration of climate and weather information for the quantification and prediction of climate and weather on health impacts in Africa.

Improving Preparedness and Risk Management for flash floods and debris flow events (IMPRINTS)

The aim of IMPRINTS is to contribute to reduce loss of life and economic damage through the improvement of the preparedness and the operational risk management for Flash Flood and Debris Flow (FF/DF) generating events, as well as to contribute to sustainable development through reducing damages to the environment. To achieve this ultimate objective the project is oriented to produce methods and tools to be used by emergency agencies and utility companies responsible for the management of FF/DF risks and associated effects. Impacts of future changes, including climatic, land use and socioeconomic will be analyzed in order to provide guidelines for mitigation and adaptation measures. Specifically, the consortium will develop an integrated probabilistic forecasting FF/ DF system as well as a probabilistic early warning and a rule-based probabilistic forecasting system adapted to the operational use by practitioners. These systems will be tested on five selected flash flood prone areas, two located in mountainous catchments in the Alps, and three in Mediterranean catchments. The IMPRINTS practitioner partners, risk management authorities and utility company managers in duty of emergency management in these areas, will supervise these tests. The development of such systems will be carried out using and capitalizing the results of previous and ongoing research on FF/DF forecasting and warning systems, in which several of the partners have played a prominent role. One major result of the project will be a operational prototype including the tools and methodologies developed under the project. This prototype will be designed under the premise of its ultimate commercialization and use worldwide. The consortium, covering all the actors involved in the complex chain of FF & DF forecasting, has been carefully selected to ensure the achievement of this. Specific actions to exploit and protect the results and the intellectual property of the partners have been also defined.

Models for Assessing and Forecasting the Impact of Environmental Key Pollutants on Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems and Biodiversity - MODELKEY

MODELKEY comprises a mulitdisciplinary approach aiming at developing interlinked and verified predictive modelling tools as well as state-of-the-art effect-assessment and analytical methods generally applicable to European freshwater and marine ecosystems: 1) to assess, forecast, and mitigate the risks of traditional and recently evolving pollutants on fresh water and marine ecosystems and their biodiversity at a river basin and adjacent marine environment scale, 2) to provide early warning strategies on the basis of sub-lethal effects in vitro and in vivo, 3) to provide a better understanding of cause-effect-relationships between changes in biodiversity and the ecological status, as addressed by the Water Framework Directive, and the impact of environmental pollution as causative factor, 4) to provide methods for state-of-the-art risk assessment and decision support systems for the selection of the most efficient management options to prevent effects on biodiversity and to prioritise contamination sources and contaminated sites, 5) to strengthen the scientific knowledge on an European level in the field of impact assessment of environmental pollution on aquatic eco-systems and their biodiversity by extensive training activities and knowledge dissemination to stakeholders and the scientific community. This goal shall be achieved by combining innovative predictive tools for modelling exposure on a river basin scale including the estuary and the coastal zone, for modelling effects on higher levels of biological organisation with powerful assessment tools for the identification of key modes of action, key toxicants and key parameters determining exposure. The developed tools will be verified in case studies representing European key areas including Mediterranean, Western and Central European river basins. An end-user-directed decision support system will be provided for cost-effective tool selection and appropriate risk and site prioritisation.

FP5-EESD, Parameterisation of the aerosol indirect climatic effect - PACE

Objective: Problems to be solved: Reliable predictions of climatic change are impossible unless the magnitude and distribution of the anthropogenic perturbations of the climate can be quantified. The radiative effects of greenhouse gases are well understood; but the indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols, that operate by altering cloud properties, are potentially significant and are very uncertain. Scientific objectives and approach: The project aims to address these problems directly, using the unrivalled data sets of co-located observations of aerosols, in cloud properties and radiative fluxes obtained during the ACE-2 field campaign. The measurements will be compared with cloud properties and radiative fluxes simulated by several climate models, with the objective of rigorously assessing the models and developing and testing more realistic schemes for representing aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in climate models. The results of the ACE-2 Cloudy-column experiment will be examined and extended to the scales that are significant for GCM parameterizations, namely 100 km in space and 1/2 hour in time. The quality of the closure, that has been evaluated at the scale of the physical processes, will be evaluated at the GCM scale. The assessment will be focused on the four processes which are identified as the most important for the aerosol indirect effect (AIE), namely aerosol activation, microphysics/radiation interaction, drizzle formation and feedback, and cloud dynamics and homogeneity. The variables used for describing the physical processes will be examined in term of large scale statistics and the corresponding large scale variables will be defined. Special attention will be given to non-linear processes, which cannot be parameterized with the mean value and the standard deviation of the variables, but rather by tail of the distributions, such as vertical velocity for the CCN activation process or droplet concentration for the onset of precipitation. Various solutions will be proposed for the modellers to determine which ones are predictable. The values of these large scale variables will be calculated for each case study. Novel parameterizations based on large scale variables will be developed and tested versus the observations. The results of the data analysis, of satellite image processing and initialization fields extracted from the ECMWF analysis will be merged to form the data set for the models. Expected impacts: The results will contribute to narrowing the large range of uncertainly in model simulations of the indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols, thereby facilitating more reliable predictions of climatic change. Prime Contractor: Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques; Toulouse.

Quantitative Sektoranalyse - Quantitative Analyse und Prognose des Agrarsektors

Ziele: 1. Das System SILAS zur Analyse und Prognose des Agrarsektors verfügt über aktuelle Datengrundlagen und Methoden (BTS, RAUS, Biologischer Landbau, Sömmerungsgebiet). Für das System sind Tests zur Messung der Prognosegüte des Systems entwickelt. 2. Ein Modul zur Darstellung der Umweltwirkungen von politischen Maßnahmen ist verfügbar. 3. Die Produktivitätsentwicklung der Schweizer Landwirtschaft in der Vergangenheit ist bekannt. 4. Grundlagen für die Finanzierungsbotschaft 2008-2011 sind bereitgestellt. 5. Kurzfristige Anfragen des BLW können im Rahmen der verfügbaren Ressourcen beantwortet werden. Problemstellung: Die Agrarpolitik verlangt quantitative, modellgestützte Prognosen über die Entwicklung des landwirtschaftlichen Sektors. Dazu bedarf es des Einsatzes von Modellsystemen, die auf aktualisierte Datengrundlagen und Methoden zurückgreifen und an die wechselnden Bedürfnisse der Politikberatung angepasst sind. Bisher können mit den vorhandenen sektoralen Systemen nur Produktions- und Einkommenseffekte prognostiziert werden. Über die ökologischen Auswirkungen können keine Aussagen gemacht werden. Diese sind allerdings für eine umfassende Beurteilung von agrarpolitischen Maßnahmen notwendig. Auch sind keine Angaben über die Prognosegüte des Modells möglich, welche die Transparenz und Akzeptanz der Modellergebnisse fördern. Im Bereich Analyse der Vergangenheitsentwicklung hat sich gezeigt, dass unzureichende Informationen über die Produktivitätsentwicklung der Landwirtschaft vorliegen. Aussagen über die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit des Agrarsektors werden jedoch zunehmend wichtiger zur Beurteilung der ökonomischen Nachhaltigkeit des schweizerischen Agrarsektors. Im Bereich Prognose gibt es bisher keine Informationen über die sektorale Einkommensentwicklung für den Zeitraum 2008-2011. Diese sind allerdings für die Ausgestaltung des Zahlungsrahmens von 2008-2011 von großer Bedeutung.

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