Das Projekt "Beyond EPICA - Oldest Ice (BE-OI)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung durchgeführt. To better constrain the response of Earth's climate system to continuing emissions, it is essential to turn to the past. A key advance would be to understand the transition in Earth's climate response to changes in orbital forcing during the 'mid-Pleistocene transition' (900 to 1200 thousand years ago) and in particular the role of greenhouse gases. Unravelling such key linkages between the carbon cycle, ice sheets, atmosphere and ocean behaviour is vital for society to better design effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. Only ice cores contain the unique and quantitative information about past climate forcing and atmospheric responses. But the ice providing essential evidence about past mechanisms of climate change more than 1 Ma ago required for our understanding of these changes (termed the 'Oldest Ice' core), has not been found to date. The consortium BEYOND EPICA - OLDEST ICE (BE-OI), formed by 14 European institutions, takes on this challenge to prepare the ground for obtaining 1.5 million year old ice from East Antarctica. BE-OI has the objectives to: - Support the site selection through creation and synthesis of all necessary information on Antarctic sites through specific geophysical surveys and the use of fast drilling tools to qualify sites and validate the age of their ice; - Select and evaluate the optimum drill site for the future 'Oldest Ice' core project and establish a science and management plan for a future drilling; - Coordinate the technical and scientific planning to ensure the availability of the technical means to implement suitable drill systems and analytical methodologies for a future ice-core drilling, and of well-trained personnel to operate them successfully; - Establish the budget and the financial background for a future deep-drilling campaign; - Embed the scientific aims of an 'Oldest Ice' core project within the wider paleoclimate data and modelling communities through international and cross-disciplinary cooperation.
Das Projekt "EU Calculator: trade-offs and pathways towards sustainable and low-carbon European Societies (EUCalc)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung e.V. durchgeführt. EUCalc replies to topic a) Managing technology transition. The EUCalc project will deliver a much needed comprehensive framework for research, business, and decision making which enables an appraisal of synergies and trade-offs of feasible decarbonisation pathways on the national scale of Europe and its member countries + Switzerland. The novel and pragmatic modelling approach is rooted between pure complex energy system and emissions models and integrated impact assessment tools, introduces an intermediate level of complexity and a multi-sector approach and is developed in a co-design process with scientific and societal actors. EUCalc explores decisions made in different sectors, like power generation, transport, industry, agriculture, energy usage and lifestyles in terms of climatological, societal, and economic consequences. For politicians at European and member state level, stakeholders and innovators EUCalc will therefore provide a Transition Pathways Explorer, which can be used as a much more concrete planning tool for the needed technological and societal challenges, associated inertia and lock-in effects. EUCalc will enable to address EU sustainability challenges in a pragmatic way without compromising on scientific rigour. It is meant to become a widely used democratic tool for policy and decision making. It will close - based on sound model components - a gap between actual climate-energy-system models and an increasing demands of decision makers for information at short notice. This will be supported by involving an extended number of decision-makers from policy and business as well as other stakeholders through expert consultations and the co-design of a Transition Pathways Explorer, a My Europe 2050 education tool and a Massive Open Online Course.
Das Projekt "Assessment of Cross(X)-sectoral climate Impacts and pathways for Sustainable transformation (AXIS)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR) durchgeführt. The AXIS consortium is set up to enhance integration of an array of research disciplines connected to climate research around the common goal to enhance the assessment of potential impacts of climate change on the bio-physical systems and human society. To this end AXIS plans to launch and implement a single transnational call - funded by 11 European research funders. Through an open process AXIS has developed three topics for this call. Each topic is intended to enhance collaboration across typical community borders: between different sectoral views of climate impacts as well as between bio-physical climate impacts and socio-economic effects. For all topics stakeholder engagement is given a high relevance in the call, thus representing another dimension of interaction across boundaries: interaction of the science community with end-users (stakeholders) of the created knowledge (transdisciplinarity). The three anticipated research areas (topics) are: (1) Cross-sectoral and cross-scale climate change impact assessments; (2) Integration of biophysical climate change impacts estimates with economic models; (3) Developing pathways to achieve the long-term objectives of the Paris Agreement, taking into account interactions with SDGs closely linked to SDG 13 ('climate action'). The AXIS consortium is deeply embedded in JPI Climate and aims to implement elements of its Strategic Research & Innovation Agenda. JPI Climate and the ERA-NET promoting Climate Services ERA4CS include a number of additional activities. Therefore within this proposal no addition activities are planned. Close partnership of the AXIS consortium and JPI Climate with other key international initiatives (Belmont Forum, GFCS, Future Earth, UN PROVIA, Copernicus) will be sought in order to continue to work against fragmentation of disciplines and geographies in climate science. In this respect a close connection with the parallel CSA proposal SINCERE is planned.
Das Projekt "Permafrost thaw and the changing arctic coast: science for socio-economic adaptation (Nunataryuk)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung durchgeführt. Most human activity in the Arctic takes place along permafrost coasts, making them a key interface. They have become one of the most dynamic ecosystems on Earth because permafrost thaw is now exposing these coasts to rapid change: change that threatens the rich biodiversity, puts pressure on communities that live there and contributes to the vulnerability of the global climate system. NUNATARYUK will determine the impacts of thawing coastal and subsea permafrost on the global climate, and will develop targeted and co-designed adaptation and mitigation strategies for the Arctic coastal population. NUNATARYUK brings together world-leading specialists in natural science and socio-economics to: (1) Develop quantitative understanding of the fluxes and fates of organic matter released from thawing coastal and subsea permafrost; (2) Assess what risks are posed by thawing coastal permafrost, to infrastructure, indigenous and local communities and people's health, and from pollution; (3) Use this understanding to estimate the long-term impacts of permafrost thaw on global climate and the economy. NUNATARYUK will be guided by a Stakeholders' Forum of representatives from Arctic coastal communities and indigenous societies, creating a legacy of collaborative community involvement and a mechanism for developing and applying innovative evidence-based interventions to enable the sustainable development of the Arctic.
Das Projekt "Oasis Innovation Hub for Catastrophe and Climate Extremes Risk Assessment (H2020_Insurance)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung e.V. durchgeführt. Globally, there is increased concern of the potential impacts of extreme climate events and their impact on loss and damage of people, assets and property as a result of these events. Therefore, natural partners in using climate services to assess risk are the Global Insurance Sector, who are key implementers in increasing societies resilience and recovery of extreme events and who are integral, co-design partners in this programme. This project intends to operationalize a system, called the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework, that combines climate services with damage and loss information and provides a standardised risk assessment process that can assess potential losses, areas at most risk and quantify financial losses of modelled scenarios. We intend to prove the Oasis LMF system through undertaking a range of demonstrators linked and codesigned to 'real' situations and end-user communities in the insurance, municipalities and business sectors (see list of partners & collaborators). These demonstrators have already been agreed with our end-users and develop work around hydro-climatic risk (in the Danube Region), Typhoon Risk, African Farmer Risk - through using climate information to support the underwriting of micro-insurance, climate v health and climate v forest asset risk assessment. We also intend to further expand access by all sectors to the models, tools and services developed within this programme and the broader climate services sector by operationalizing an open eMarket place and matchmaking facility for catastrophe and climate data and models, tools and services and through broadening awareness in the climate modelling and end-users communities to the Framework, and the transparent and comparable standard it offers to support evidence based risk assessment and adaptation planning. PIK is the overall coordinator of the project, and further leads the flood risk demonstrator and the farmer micro-insurance 'demonstrator.
Das Projekt "Second Arctic Science Ministerial (ASM2)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung durchgeführt. In response to the achievements of the US-administration under the first Arctic Science Ministerial (ASM1), the European Commission, the Republic of Finland and the Federal Republic of Germany agreed to co-host the second (ASM2) in the autumn of 2018. The Ministerial will not be an Arctic Council event, but connection is ensured by one of the organisers, Finland, holding the chairmanship of the Arctic Council between May 2017 and May 2019. The four themes discussed at the ASM1 and the relevant deliverables will be subjects of the Ministerial discussion in 2018 together with new themes that the organisers and the scientific community will identify as prominent. All the delegations present at the ASM1 will be invited along with other governments engaging in Arctic Science. The participation of indigenous communities from the Arctic region is considered a priority. Their traditional knowledge and understanding of their natural environment is an essential element which contributes significantly to scientific understanding. Representatives of different Arctic community organizations from various Arctic countries around the world will be invited to take part in the Ministerial. The ASM2 will take place over two days. On the first day, a Science Conference will showcase the latest achievements in relation with the deliverables agreed under the thematic areas defined by the Washington White House Conference in 2016. Scientific advances presented in the ASM1 deliverables, as well as a necessary future commitment, will be the core of the discussion, open to many different stakeholders, policy-makers, NGOs, media. These discussions will prepare the ground for the high-level segment that will take place the second day. The release of a Joint Statement will be one of the main objectives of the Ministerial meeting together with a report on the actions implemented in the previous two years and an updated list of deliverables that will generate results in the following years.
Das Projekt "CAScading Climate risks: towards ADaptive and resilient European Societies (CASCADES)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung e.V. durchgeführt. Climate change amplifies existing risks and vulnerabilities in a globalised world. New risks are also emerging from complex cross-sectoral and multi-dimensional interactions that aggregate gradually, and sometimes emerge abruptly. Recent examples of links between crop damage in Russia, international food prices and political instability in North Africa, as well as impact chains from drought, migration, civil unrest and war in the Middle East, demonstrate how climate-induced risks outside Europe can cascade and threaten Europe. CASCADES strives to understand the conditions under which climate risks propagate beyond their geographical and temporal location in ways that may affect European stability and cohesion. It does so via a broad 360° risk assessment and deeper thematic analyses of trade, value chain, financial and political connections between Europe and the rest of the world. CASCADES' ambition is to identify the policy leverage points that can help the EU to adapt and respond to such cascading climate risks. CASCADES integrates a wide range of established and innovative methodologies - many of which have not been seriously applied to adaptation questions before - ranging from biophysical climate impact modelling, economic modelling of trade and financial networks, and data integration methods, to qualitative approaches including hotspot case study analysis original social science research and serious games. CASCADES combines leading expertise in climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, international trade and commodity flows, foreign policy and security, and finance and business, with deep knowledge and proven experience of co-creating with - and influencing - stakeholders from private sectors, public policy and civil society. CASCADES will provide knowledge and tools to support policy and decision-making processes, thus helping Europe to strategically navigate a sustainable and resilient path through a rapidly changing, interconnected world.
Das Projekt "Tipping Points in the Earth System (TiPES)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universitet Köbenhavn durchgeführt. There is rising concern that several subsystems of the Earth may respond highly nonlinearly at critical future levels of anthropogenic forcing; these levels have recently been associated with tipping points (TPs). It is paramount to identify safe operating spaces for humanity and the planet in terms of these critical forcing levels, in order to prevent harmful transitions to alternative, undesirable states of the Earth system. The mechanisms leading to such abrupt transitions are only partly understood, and further research in this regard is urgently needed. State-of-art Earth System Models appear to respond too smoothly at TPs and have difficulties in simulating abrupt transitions that occurred in the planet's history. TiPES will address these problems from several angles: 1. The project will identify subsystems that may exhibit abrupt transitions, and couplings between them, by focussing on paleoclimatic records and abrupt transitions therein. Novel methods to detect Early Warning Signals of forthcoming TPs, and to make skilful predictions on their basis, will be developed. 2. The potential shortcomings of models in representing TPs will be evaluated; in particular, TiPES will investigate how Bayesian calibration techniques can help enable these models to simulate past abrupt transitions. 3. TiPES will develop a generalized theory of climate sensitivity that accounts for the presence of TPs and feedbacks across various time scales. 4. To define safe operating spaces. TiPES will focus on dynamical system theory and on global stability notions for non-autonomous systems in order to estimate the stability of desirable states. 5. The results obtained by the project will be communicated to policy makers in a manner that facilitates decisions and their implementation. TiPES will develop formal approaches to define the socioeconomic risks of crossing TPs, and to derive decision strategies to keep anthropogenic forcing below levels where abrupt transitions may occur.
Das Projekt "Next generation of AdVanced InteGrated Assessment modelling to support climaTE policy making (NAVIGATE)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung e.V. durchgeführt. NAVIGATE aims to develop the Next generation of AdVanced InteGrated Assessment modelling to support climaTE policy making. It will critically improve the capability of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to inform the design and evaluation of climate policies by targeting major advancements in two areas: describing transformative change in the economy, in technology and in consumer goods and services, and describing distributional impacts of climate change and climate policy. By tackling existing weaknesses and lack of capabilities of the current generation of IAMs, NAVIGATE will provide new insight into how long-term climate goals can translate into short-term policy action, and how countries and sectors can work in concert to implement the Paris Agreement. NAVIGATE is bringing together leading institutions in the field of integrated assessment modelling with leading domain experts. They will provide a broad and diverse collection of state-of-the-art tools ranging from domain specific models and data to an extensive set of flagship IAMs to foster a successful implementation of the project. NAVIGATE will engage in a concerted effort to increase the usability, transparency, legitimacy and hence uptake of IAM results. At the center of this will be a stakeholder dialogue to elicit user needs and engage in co-production of knowledge about IAMs and their uses. This will be accompanied by the development of methodologies to better assess the robustness of IAM results, by extended model documentation and new communication tools, and by capacity building efforts to lower the entrance barrier to IAM activities for other research teams, including research teams in less-developed countries. The NAVIGATE partners have long-standing expertise in national, EU and international climate policy advice and will actively promote uptake of project results by policy makers and international assessments.
Das Projekt "Advanced Prediction in Polar regions and beyond: Modelling, observing system design and LInkages associated with ArctiC ClimATE change (APPLICATE)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung durchgeführt. Arctic climate change increases the need of a growing number of stakeholders for trustworthy weather and climate predictions, both within the Arctic and beyond. APPLICATE will address this challenge and develop enhanced predictive capacity by bringing together scientists from academia, research institutions and operational prediction centres, including experts in weather and climate prediction and forecast dissemination. APPLICATE will develop a comprehensive framework for observationally constraining and assessing weather and climate models using advanced metrics and diagnostics. This framework will be used to establish the performance of existing models and measure the progress made within the project. APPLICATE will make significant model improvements, focusing on aspects that are known to play pivotal roles in both weather and climate prediction, namely: the atmospheric boundary layer including clouds; sea ice; snow; atmosphere-sea ice-ocean coupling; and oceanic transports. In addition to model developments, APPLICATE will enhance predictive capacity by contributing to the design of the future Arctic observing system and through improved forecast initialization techniques. The impact of Arctic climate change on the weather and climate of the Northern Hemisphere through atmospheric and oceanic linkages will be determined by a comprehensive set of novel multi-model numerical experiments using both coupled and uncoupled ocean and atmosphere models. APPLICATE will develop strong user-engagement and dissemination activities, including pro-active engagement of end-users and the exploitation of modern methods for communication and dissemination. Knowledge-transfer will also benefit from the direct engagement of operational prediction centres in APPLICATE. The educational component of APPLICATE will be developed and implemented in collaboration with the Association of Early Career Polar Scientists (APECS).
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