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To better constrain the long-term response of Earth's climate system to continuing greenhouse gas emissions, it is essential to turn to the past. A key advance would be to understand the shift in Earth's climate response to orbital forcing during the 'Mid-Pleistocene transition' (MPT, 900,000 (900 kyr) to 1.2 million years (1.2 Myr) ago), when a dominant 40 kyr cyclicity gave way to the current 100 kyr period. It is critical to understand the role of forcing factors and especially of greenhouse gases in this transition. Unravelling such key linkages between the carbon cycle, ice sheets, atmosphere and ocean behaviour is vital, assisting society to design an effective mitigation and adaptation strategy for climate change. Only ice cores contain direct and quantitative information about past climate forcing and atmospheric responses. However, the longest (EPICA) ice core record available to date covers only the last 800 kyr. The RIA Topic LC-CLA-08-2018 empowers the European ice core community to perform such an oldest ice core drilling and the project 'Beyond EPICA' is taking on this unique challenge and opportunity. The overarching scientific objective driving 'Beyond EPICA' is to obtain quantitative, high-resolution ice- core information on climate and environmental changes over the last 1.5 Myr. The cause and effect relationship that led to the enigmatic MPT change in the climate system is not understood yet, as important information on global changes in the climate system is still missing. Most of this information, including the phasing of these changes in the Earth System can only be derived from a continuous ice core from Antarctica covering the last 1.5 Myr. This proposal uses the planning derived during the recent BE-OI CSA, and offers an excellent team (the only team globally that could at present accept the challenge of the call), underpinned by excellent infrastructure and capacity, and is currently ensuring it has an excellent location for the core.
The Southern Ocean regulates the global climate by controlling heat and carbon exchanges between the atmosphere and the ocean. It is responsible for about 60-90% of the excess heat (i.e. associated with anthropogenic climate change) absorbed by the World Oceans each year, and is also recognised to largely control decadal scale variability of Earth carbon budget, with key implications for decision makers and regular global stocktake agreed as part of the Paris agreement. Despite such pivotal climate importance, its representation in global climate model represents one of the main weaknesses of climate simulation and projection because too little is known about the underlying processes. Limitations come both from the lack of observations in this extreme environment and its inherent sensitivity to intermittent small-scale processes that are not captured in current Earth system models. The overall objective of SO-CHIC is to understand and quantify variability of heat and carbon budgets in the Southern Ocean through an investigation of the key processes controlling exchanges between the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice using a combination of observational and modelling approaches. SO-CHIC considers the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean as a natural laboratory both because of its worldwide importance in water-mass formation and because of the strong European presence in this sector already established at national levels, which allow to best leverage existing expertise, infrastructure, and observation network, around one single coordinated overall objective. SO-CHIC also takes the opportunity of the recent re-appearance of the Atlantic Sector Weddell Polynya to unveil its dynamics and global impact on heat and carbon cycles. A combination of dedicated observation, existing decades-long time-series, and state-of-the-art modelling will be used to address specific objectives on key processes, as well as their impact and feedback on the large-scale atmosphere-ocean system.
Climate change amplifies existing risks and vulnerabilities in a globalised world. New risks are also emerging from complex cross-sectoral and multi-dimensional interactions that aggregate gradually, and sometimes emerge abruptly. Recent examples of links between crop damage in Russia, international food prices and political instability in North Africa, as well as impact chains from drought, migration, civil unrest and war in the Middle East, demonstrate how climate-induced risks outside Europe can cascade and threaten Europe. CASCADES strives to understand the conditions under which climate risks propagate beyond their geographical and temporal location in ways that may affect European stability and cohesion. It does so via a broad 360° risk assessment and deeper thematic analyses of trade, value chain, financial and political connections between Europe and the rest of the world. CASCADES' ambition is to identify the policy leverage points that can help the EU to adapt and respond to such cascading climate risks. CASCADES integrates a wide range of established and innovative methodologies - many of which have not been seriously applied to adaptation questions before - ranging from biophysical climate impact modelling, economic modelling of trade and financial networks, and data integration methods, to qualitative approaches including hotspot case study analysis original social science research and serious games. CASCADES combines leading expertise in climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, international trade and commodity flows, foreign policy and security, and finance and business, with deep knowledge and proven experience of co-creating with - and influencing - stakeholders from private sectors, public policy and civil society. CASCADES will provide knowledge and tools to support policy and decision-making processes, thus helping Europe to strategically navigate a sustainable and resilient path through a rapidly changing, interconnected world.
NAVIGATE aims to develop the Next generation of AdVanced InteGrated Assessment modelling to support climaTE policy making. It will critically improve the capability of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to inform the design and evaluation of climate policies by targeting major advancements in two areas: describing transformative change in the economy, in technology and in consumer goods and services, and describing distributional impacts of climate change and climate policy. By tackling existing weaknesses and lack of capabilities of the current generation of IAMs, NAVIGATE will provide new insight into how long-term climate goals can translate into short-term policy action, and how countries and sectors can work in concert to implement the Paris Agreement. NAVIGATE is bringing together leading institutions in the field of integrated assessment modelling with leading domain experts. They will provide a broad and diverse collection of state-of-the-art tools ranging from domain specific models and data to an extensive set of flagship IAMs to foster a successful implementation of the project. NAVIGATE will engage in a concerted effort to increase the usability, transparency, legitimacy and hence uptake of IAM results. At the center of this will be a stakeholder dialogue to elicit user needs and engage in co-production of knowledge about IAMs and their uses. This will be accompanied by the development of methodologies to better assess the robustness of IAM results, by extended model documentation and new communication tools, and by capacity building efforts to lower the entrance barrier to IAM activities for other research teams, including research teams in less-developed countries. The NAVIGATE partners have long-standing expertise in national, EU and international climate policy advice and will actively promote uptake of project results by policy makers and international assessments.
The overall objective of FORCeS is to understand and reduce the long-standing uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing, which is crucial in order to increase confidence in climate projections. These projections are highly relevant for decision makers, as they provide key information on emission pathways that will facilitate the targets of the Paris Agreement to be achieved. FORCeS will identify key processes governing aerosol radiative forcing, as well as climate feedbacks related to aerosols and clouds, and improve the knowledge about these processes by bringing together leading European scientists with trans-disciplinary expertise to i) exploit the wealth of in-situ and remote sensing data that have emerged during the recent decades; ii) perform dedicated laboratory and field experiments; iii) utilize a range of state-of-the-art computational models; and iv) apply novel theoretical methods including machine learning techniques. The process analysis within FORCeS will be conducted with the overall aim of improving a set of leading European climate models, which all provide essential information to climate assessments such as the IPCC report. The gap between knowledge on the process scale and model application on the climate scale is currently a main reason preventing the climate science community to move forward in terms of understanding the role of aerosols and aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate system. FORCeS will bridge this knowledge gap using systematically designed scale chains that involve methodologies for constraining processes on scales ranging from hours to decades, ultimately leading to the desired refinement of model-estimated aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity. FORCeS will reach out to decision makers and stakeholders and provide added-value information through e.g. workshops where climate science and climate policy experts meet to achieve maximum impact.
COMFORT will close knowledge gaps for key ocean tipping elements under anthropogenic physical and chemical climate forcing through an interdisciplinary research approach. It will provide added value to decision and policy makers in terms of science based safe marine operating spaces, refined climate mitigation targets, and feasible long-term mitigation pathways. We will determine the consequences of passing tipping points in physical tipping elements for the marine carbon, oxygen, and nutrient cycles, as well as tipping points in biogeochemical tipping elements. The respective impact on marine ecosystems will be determined. Projections of the Earth system and impact studies have so far been carried out sequentially in a chain from scenarios to projections to off-line impact studies. This sequential workflow has hampered a quick response of the impact community back to revised scenarios and projections for tackling climate mitigation. COMFORT breaks new ground by bringing together experts from Earth system science, oceanography, fisheries science and ecology in a single integrated project who will work in parallel with a consistent set of analysis tools, scenarios, and interoperable models. The strength of COMFORT lies in the system-focused interdisciplinary approach as opposed to existing studies at the level of individual subsystems. The approach will be pursued with a firm link to stakeholders. COMFORT results will contribute to all four expected impacts for this call.
There is rising concern that several subsystems of the Earth may respond highly nonlinearly at critical future levels of anthropogenic forcing; these levels have recently been associated with tipping points (TPs). It is paramount to identify safe operating spaces for humanity and the planet in terms of these critical forcing levels, in order to prevent harmful transitions to alternative, undesirable states of the Earth system. The mechanisms leading to such abrupt transitions are only partly understood, and further research in this regard is urgently needed. State-of-art Earth System Models appear to respond too smoothly at TPs and have difficulties in simulating abrupt transitions that occurred in the planet's history. TiPES will address these problems from several angles: 1. The project will identify subsystems that may exhibit abrupt transitions, and couplings between them, by focussing on paleoclimatic records and abrupt transitions therein. Novel methods to detect Early Warning Signals of forthcoming TPs, and to make skilful predictions on their basis, will be developed. 2. The potential shortcomings of models in representing TPs will be evaluated; in particular, TiPES will investigate how Bayesian calibration techniques can help enable these models to simulate past abrupt transitions. 3. TiPES will develop a generalized theory of climate sensitivity that accounts for the presence of TPs and feedbacks across various time scales. 4. To define safe operating spaces. TiPES will focus on dynamical system theory and on global stability notions for non-autonomous systems in order to estimate the stability of desirable states. 5. The results obtained by the project will be communicated to policy makers in a manner that facilitates decisions and their implementation. TiPES will develop formal approaches to define the socioeconomic risks of crossing TPs, and to derive decision strategies to keep anthropogenic forcing below levels where abrupt transitions may occur.
As the world faces the risks of dangerous climate change, policy-makers, industry and civil society leaders are counting on Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to inform and guide strategies to deliver on the objectives of the Paris Agreement (PA). ENGAGE rises to this challenge by engaging these stakeholders in co-producing a new generation of global and national decarbonisation pathways. These new pathways will supplement natural science, engineering and economics, traditionally represented in IAMs, with cutting-edge insights from social science in order to reflect multidimensional feasibility of decarbonisation and identify opportunities to strengthen climate policies. The pathways will be designed to minimise overshoot of the temperature target and analyse the timing of net-zero emissions to meet the Paris temperature target and reduce the reliance on controversial negative emissions technologies. In addition, they will link national mitigation strategies of major emitters with the PA's objectives, integrate potential game-changing innovations, and advance conceptually novel approaches to architectures of international climate agreements. ENGAGE will also quantify avoided impacts of climate change, co-benefits and trade-offs of climate policy, and identify the biggest sectoral opportunities for climate change mitigation. In ENGAGE, we will set new standards of transparency for global and national IAMs. The new pathways will be developed in an iterative global and national stakeholder process and a consortium of leading global and national IAMs and social scientists. This co-production process ensures that the pathways are credible, legitimate, and rooted in concrete policy and industry experience, making them relevant to inform the 2023 global stocktake and feed into the mid-century strategies of major emitters.
In an interconnected world, Europe's economy will be increasingly affected by climate change impacts that occur beyond its border. The movement of goods and services, people and capital occurs at ever increasing rates and volumes. This complex network reveals Europe's globalized climate exposure, vulnerability and risk structure, through which both gradual and sudden impacts of climatic features at any location on the world (hurricanes, droughts, melting ice sheets) propagate, ultimately impacting Europe's socio-economic welfare. Public awareness of Europe's sensitivity to global climate impacts is steadily growing. In order to provide relevant and quantitative information on the European risks from remote global climatic features, RECEIPT will develop and implement a novel stakeholder driven storytelling concept that maps representative connections between European socio-economic activities and remote climatic hazards. Using a limited number of storylines designed for selected sectors, RECEIPT has the following key objectives and deliverables: - Mapping of global hotspots of remote areas with climate features relevant for Europe, using state-of- the-art climate and climate-impact databases; - Science-based sectoral storylines co-developed with societal partners, describing the impacts of remote climate change on: European food security, the financial sector, international development, commodities and European coastal infrastructure; - Assessment of European socio-economic impacts along each of the selected storylines under different future climatic conditions, including high-end climate scenarios; - A robust synthesis of the storyline results into a pan-European socio-economic risk assessment focusing on the difference between high-end and moderate climate change conditions; - Innovative web-based concepts for visualizing potential impacts of remote drivers and mapping risk mitigation options.
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