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CONSTRAIN will focus research on three climate science knowledge gaps and a policy-facing knowledge gap that can be resolved over the next 4-5 years to significantly improve our understanding of how natural and human factors affect multi-decadal regional climate change. This will cement EU science as the world-leader in understanding climate sensitivity and climate variability, deliver significantly improved capability to make climate projections for the next 20-50 years, and provide up-to-date scientific evidence for international climate policy in two phases: Phase 1 will deliver a timely characterisation of physical science uncertainty and how it affects projections and committed levels of warming to the 2021 IPCC sixth assessment report; Phase 2 will deliver constrained surface temperature projections for the 2023 UNFCCC Global Stocktake. CONSTRAIN will take full advantage of climate model integrations from the sixth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and will leverage existing H2020 and ERC projects. Novel CMIP6 analyses will be combined with dedicated high resolution simulations and new observations to address identified knowledge gaps on radiative forcing, cloud feedbacks and the relationship between ocean variability and atmospheric change. A fourth identified knowledge gap is the effective translation of new physical science understanding into an improved evidence base for policy decisions. CONSTRAIN will address this by developing climate model emulators that integrate and operationalise learning from across the consortium to provide new capability to assess impacts of climate change under a broad range of emission scenarios. We will focus on the expected spatially resolved decadal changes until mid-century providing robust evidence on climate sensitivity, and regional temperature, precipitation and circulation changes, thereby enabling evidence-based policy decisions that will directly benefit the EU's adaptation and mitigation strategy.
CCiCC addresses the crucial knowledge gap in the climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide emissions, by reducing uncertainty in our quantitative understanding of carbon-climate interactions and feedbacks. This will be achieved through innovative integration of models and observations, providing new constraints on modelled carbon-climate interactions and climate projections, and supporting IPCC assessments and policy objectives. To meet this objective, CCiCC will (a) provide a step change in our ability to quantify the key processes regulating the coupled carbon-climate system, (b) use observational constraints and improved processes understanding to provide multi-model near-term predictions and long-term projections of the climate in response to anthropogenic emissions, and (c) deliver policy-relevant carbon dioxide emission pathways consistent with the UNFCCC Paris Agreement (PA) goals. To achieve its goals, CCiCC will develop and use: state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) including biogeochemical processes not included in previous IPCC reports; novel observations to constrain the contemporary carbon cycle and its natural variability; ESM-based decadal predictions including carbon-climate feedbacks and novel initialisation methods; novel emergent constraints and weighting methods to reduce uncertainty in carbon cycle and climate projections; and novel climate scenarios following adaptive CO2 emission pathways. CCiCC will support two central elements of the PA. First, the PA global stocktakes, by providing policy-relevant predictions of atmospheric CO2 and climate in response to the national determined contributions. Second, the PA ambitions to keep global warming well below 2°C, by providing robust estimates of the remaining carbon budgets and available pathways. CCiCC will bring together leading European groups on climate modelling and on carbon cycle research, uniquely securing Europe's leadership in actionable science needed for the IPCC assessments.
To better constrain the long-term response of Earth's climate system to continuing greenhouse gas emissions, it is essential to turn to the past. A key advance would be to understand the shift in Earth's climate response to orbital forcing during the 'Mid-Pleistocene transition' (MPT, 900,000 (900 kyr) to 1.2 million years (1.2 Myr) ago), when a dominant 40 kyr cyclicity gave way to the current 100 kyr period. It is critical to understand the role of forcing factors and especially of greenhouse gases in this transition. Unravelling such key linkages between the carbon cycle, ice sheets, atmosphere and ocean behaviour is vital, assisting society to design an effective mitigation and adaptation strategy for climate change. Only ice cores contain direct and quantitative information about past climate forcing and atmospheric responses. However, the longest (EPICA) ice core record available to date covers only the last 800 kyr. The RIA Topic LC-CLA-08-2018 empowers the European ice core community to perform such an oldest ice core drilling and the project 'Beyond EPICA' is taking on this unique challenge and opportunity. The overarching scientific objective driving 'Beyond EPICA' is to obtain quantitative, high-resolution ice- core information on climate and environmental changes over the last 1.5 Myr. The cause and effect relationship that led to the enigmatic MPT change in the climate system is not understood yet, as important information on global changes in the climate system is still missing. Most of this information, including the phasing of these changes in the Earth System can only be derived from a continuous ice core from Antarctica covering the last 1.5 Myr. This proposal uses the planning derived during the recent BE-OI CSA, and offers an excellent team (the only team globally that could at present accept the challenge of the call), underpinned by excellent infrastructure and capacity, and is currently ensuring it has an excellent location for the core.
As the negative impacts of rising global temperatures become increasingly evident, national governments, regional authorities and private stakeholders are enhancing efforts to curve down the emissions the greenhouse gases (GHG) responsible for global warming. Measuring the effectiveness of GHG emission reduction policies against agreed-upon international targets require accurate and precise estimates of emissions and their trends. These estimates need to be established and regularly updated using transparent methods, tracable to international standards. VERIFY proposes to quantify more accurately carbon stocks and the fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) across the EU based on independent observations in support of inventories that rely only on statistical data. The same approach will also be tested for US, China and Indonesia, in collaboration with foreign partnes. Accurate characterization of the space-time variations of GHG fluxes, separating their anthropogenic and natural components and their drivers, will be based on advanced modelling approaches using atmospheric GHG measurements, tracer transport inversions and various arrays of land observations, in-situ and from space. The improved knowledge of GHG budgets from VERIFY will be used to improve national inventories, in collaboration with national inventory agencies, and to deliver policy-relevant information to track progress of the EU mitigation efforts to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement on Climate, in line with international cooperation mechanisms promoted by the WMO, the IPCC and the UNFCCC.
MED-GOLD will demonstrate the proof-of-concept for climate services in the agriculture sector by developing case studies for three hallmarks of the Mediterranean food system: grapes, olives and durum wheat. Agriculture is primarily climate-driven and hence highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Evidence suggests that the Mediterranean region is under immediate threat of shifting climate patterns and the associated ecological, economic and social effects. Developing a capacity to turn the increasingly big climate-related data into tailored climate services that can inform decision-making in agriculture, is therefore a priority both in Europe and worldwide. The long-term goal of this project is to make European agriculture and food systems more competitive, resilient, and efficient in the face of climate change, by using climate services to minimize climate-driven risks/costs and seize opportunities for added-value. The MED-GOLD project aims to develop climate services for olive, grape, and durum wheat crop systems that are the basis for producing olive oil, wine and pasta. This set of crops and related food products is of utmost climatic, ecological, economic, and cultural relevance to the Mediterranean region. Because olive oil, wine and pasta are not only hallmarks of the Mediterranean diet but also food commodities with a global market, there is considerable potential for developing climate services with high added-value for olive, grape, and durum wheat. A key challenge is to co-design prototype pilot service applications involving both suppliers and users in the three major traditional Mediterranean crop systems so as to demonstrate the added-value of data/information-driven responses to changes in the climate system. The operational decision-making of users will be reviewed to either identify key decisions or introduce new actions that can benefit from climate-related information at different timescales from months to decades.
Within the European Research Area (ERA), the ERA4CS Consortium is aiming to boost, research for Climate Services (CS), including climate adaptation, mitigation and disaster risk management, allowing regions, cities and key economic sectors to develop opportunities and strengthen Europe's leadership. CS are seen by our consortium as driven by user demands to provide knowledge to face impacts of climate variability and change, as well as guidance both to researchers and decision? makers in policy and business. We will focus on the development of a 'climate information translation' layer bridging 'user communities' and 'climate science system'. It implies the development of tools, methods, standards and quality control for reliable, qualified and tailored information required by the various field actors for smart decisions. ERA4CS will boost the JPI Climate initiative by mobilizing more deeply, within EU Member States and Associated Countries, by involving both the research performing organizations (RPOs) and the research funding organizations (RFOs), the distinct national climate services and the various disciplines of academia, including Humanities and Social Sciences. We will launch a joint transnational co-funded call, with over 16 countries and up to 75M€, with two complementary topics: (i) a 'cash' topic, supported by 12 RFOs, on co-development for user needs and action-oriented projects; (ii) an 'in-kind' topic, supported by 28 RPOs, on institutional integration of the research components of national CS. Finally, ERA4CS additional activities will initiate a strong partnership between JPI Climate and others key European and international initiatives (as Copernicus, KIC-Climate, JPIs, WMO/GFCS, Future Earth, Belmont Forum...) in order to work towards a common vision and a multiyear implementation strategy, including better co-alignment of national programs and activities up to 2020 and beyond.
PARIS REINFORCE aims to underpin climate policymaking with authoritative scientific processes and results, and enhance the science-policy interface, in light of the Paris Agreement and associated challenges. In particular, our aim is to develop a novel, demand-driven, IAM-oriented assessment framework for effectively supporting the design and assessment of climate policies in the EU as well as in other major emitters and selected less emitting/developed countries, in respect to the Paris Agreement objectives. Building on an exhaustive facilitative dialogue and a strong ensemble of complementary-in terms of mathematical structure, geographical, sectoral and focus coverage-integrated assessment, energy system and sectoral models, we will create an open-access and transparent data exchange platform, I2AM PARIS, in order to support the effective implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions, the preparation of future action pledges, the development of 2050 decarbonisation strategies, and the reinforcement of the 2023 Global Stocktake. We also seek to enhance the legitimacy of the scientific processes in support of climate policymaking, by introducing an innovative stakeholder inclusion framework and improving the transparency of the employed models, methods and tools. Beyond effectively communicating respective outputs and fostering wider societal acceptance of climate policy, we actively involve policymakers and other stakeholder groups in all stages: from the formulation of policy questions and the definition of modelling assumptions in a demand-driven approach; to the design of I2AM PARIS interfaces and specifications, and the mobilisation of tacit knowledge embedded in them in the aim of bridging knowledge gaps. Finally, we will introduce innovative integrative processes, in which IAMs are further coupled with well-established methodological frameworks, in order to improve the robustness of modelling outcomes against different types of uncertainties.
The Southern Ocean regulates the global climate by controlling heat and carbon exchanges between the atmosphere and the ocean. It is responsible for about 60-90% of the excess heat (i.e. associated with anthropogenic climate change) absorbed by the World Oceans each year, and is also recognised to largely control decadal scale variability of Earth carbon budget, with key implications for decision makers and regular global stocktake agreed as part of the Paris agreement. Despite such pivotal climate importance, its representation in global climate model represents one of the main weaknesses of climate simulation and projection because too little is known about the underlying processes. Limitations come both from the lack of observations in this extreme environment and its inherent sensitivity to intermittent small-scale processes that are not captured in current Earth system models. The overall objective of SO-CHIC is to understand and quantify variability of heat and carbon budgets in the Southern Ocean through an investigation of the key processes controlling exchanges between the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice using a combination of observational and modelling approaches. SO-CHIC considers the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean as a natural laboratory both because of its worldwide importance in water-mass formation and because of the strong European presence in this sector already established at national levels, which allow to best leverage existing expertise, infrastructure, and observation network, around one single coordinated overall objective. SO-CHIC also takes the opportunity of the recent re-appearance of the Atlantic Sector Weddell Polynya to unveil its dynamics and global impact on heat and carbon cycles. A combination of dedicated observation, existing decades-long time-series, and state-of-the-art modelling will be used to address specific objectives on key processes, as well as their impact and feedback on the large-scale atmosphere-ocean system.
Climate change amplifies existing risks and vulnerabilities in a globalised world. New risks are also emerging from complex cross-sectoral and multi-dimensional interactions that aggregate gradually, and sometimes emerge abruptly. Recent examples of links between crop damage in Russia, international food prices and political instability in North Africa, as well as impact chains from drought, migration, civil unrest and war in the Middle East, demonstrate how climate-induced risks outside Europe can cascade and threaten Europe. CASCADES strives to understand the conditions under which climate risks propagate beyond their geographical and temporal location in ways that may affect European stability and cohesion. It does so via a broad 360° risk assessment and deeper thematic analyses of trade, value chain, financial and political connections between Europe and the rest of the world. CASCADES' ambition is to identify the policy leverage points that can help the EU to adapt and respond to such cascading climate risks. CASCADES integrates a wide range of established and innovative methodologies - many of which have not been seriously applied to adaptation questions before - ranging from biophysical climate impact modelling, economic modelling of trade and financial networks, and data integration methods, to qualitative approaches including hotspot case study analysis original social science research and serious games. CASCADES combines leading expertise in climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, international trade and commodity flows, foreign policy and security, and finance and business, with deep knowledge and proven experience of co-creating with - and influencing - stakeholders from private sectors, public policy and civil society. CASCADES will provide knowledge and tools to support policy and decision-making processes, thus helping Europe to strategically navigate a sustainable and resilient path through a rapidly changing, interconnected world.
The overall objective of FORCeS is to understand and reduce the long-standing uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing, which is crucial in order to increase confidence in climate projections. These projections are highly relevant for decision makers, as they provide key information on emission pathways that will facilitate the targets of the Paris Agreement to be achieved. FORCeS will identify key processes governing aerosol radiative forcing, as well as climate feedbacks related to aerosols and clouds, and improve the knowledge about these processes by bringing together leading European scientists with trans-disciplinary expertise to i) exploit the wealth of in-situ and remote sensing data that have emerged during the recent decades; ii) perform dedicated laboratory and field experiments; iii) utilize a range of state-of-the-art computational models; and iv) apply novel theoretical methods including machine learning techniques. The process analysis within FORCeS will be conducted with the overall aim of improving a set of leading European climate models, which all provide essential information to climate assessments such as the IPCC report. The gap between knowledge on the process scale and model application on the climate scale is currently a main reason preventing the climate science community to move forward in terms of understanding the role of aerosols and aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate system. FORCeS will bridge this knowledge gap using systematically designed scale chains that involve methodologies for constraining processes on scales ranging from hours to decades, ultimately leading to the desired refinement of model-estimated aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity. FORCeS will reach out to decision makers and stakeholders and provide added-value information through e.g. workshops where climate science and climate policy experts meet to achieve maximum impact.
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