Das Projekt "European and Russian Extreme events: Mechanisms, Variability and Future Climate Change" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel (GEOMAR) durchgeführt. Over the last century, a considerable increase in global, hemispheric and regional average surface temperatures has been observed, along with trends in temperature and precipitation extremes. The first decade of the 21st century was globally the warmest in the instrumental temperature record and has brought a number of remarkable weather and climate extremes to European countries and Russia which had considerable impacts on society and ecosystems. Among the most recent of these extreme events are the cold winter of 2009/2010, the Russian heat wave of 2010 and the flooding in Central Europe in 2010. Further extreme events affecting Europe and Russia are extreme air pollution, strong marine storms and wind waves and fast permafrost thawing. In this project, we shall investigate if these extremes are already affected by and in which way they will change in the future in response to global warming. Third, we shall assess the representation of extreme events in climate models, in particular as a function of model resolution, and on regional scales. Fourth, we shall develop future scenarios of extreme events in Europe and Russia including the associated uncertainties. To address these questions, we shall carry out case study simulations, sensitivity integrations and future projections with global and very high-resolution regional climate models in different forcing and coupling settings. These experiments and additional millennial-long control runs will be validated against observational data by means of modern statistical methods, in particular extreme value theory, vector-generalised regression models and cyclone tracking algorithms. The regional climate model projections will be bias-corrected with a special focus on correcting the magnitudes of extreme events. The project will extend the existing collaboration between the participating institutes on largescale climate phenomena towards extreme events on a regional scale. By bringing together expertise in regional climate, global climate as well as statistical modelling and data analysis, a unique research team will be created capable to address a wide range of scientific questions regarding extreme events under climate change. The project will lead to a direct knowledge transfer from the IFM-GEOMAR to the Russian teams in global climate modelling and extreme value theory, and vice versa in regional climate modelling. The anticipated results will improve the understanding of the mechanisms underlying extreme events and their variability and can be used to better predict potential future events. The improved predictability on decadal to multi-decadal time scales and the provision of biascorrected scenarios of future climate extremes and their associated uncertainties will help end users and stake holders to implement adaptation measures to changes in the statistics of extreme events, and will help policy makers to assess the required degree of climate change mitigation. (abridged text)
Das Projekt "Changes in carbon uptake and emissions by oceans in a changing climate (CARBOCHANGE)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Bergen durchgeführt. Objective: CARBOCHANGE will provide the best possible process-based quantification of net ocean carbon uptake under changing climate conditions using past and present ocean carbon cycle changes for a better prediction of future ocean carbon uptake. We will improve the quantitative understanding of key biogeochemical and physical processes through a combination of observations and models. We will upscale new process understanding to large-scale integrative feedbacks of the ocean carbon cycle to climate change and rising carbon dioxide concentrations. We will quantify the vulnerability of the ocean carbon sources and sinks in a probabilistic sense using cutting edge coupled Earth system models under a spectrum of emission scenarios including climate stabilisation scenarios as required for the 5th IPCC assessment report. The drivers for the vulnerabilities will be identified. The most actual observations of the changing ocean carbon sink will be systematically integrated with the newest ocean carbon models, a coupled land-ocean model, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, and fully fledged Earth system models through a spectrum of data assimilation methods as well as advanced performance assessment tools. Results will be optimal process descriptions and most realistic error margins for future ocean carbon uptake quantifications with models under the presently available observational evidence. The project will deliver calibrated future evolutions of ocean pH and carbonate saturation as required by the research community on ocean acidification in the EU project EPOCA and further projects in this field. The time history of atmosphere-ocean carbon fluxes past, present, and future will be synthesised globally as well as regionally for the transcontinental RECCAP project. Observations and model results will merge into GEOSS/GEO through links with the European coordination action COCOS and will prepare the marine branch of the European Research Infrastructure ICOS.
Das Projekt "Raising the alert about critical feedbacks between climate and long-term land use change in the Amazon (AMAZALERT)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Dienst Landbouwkundig Onderzoek durchgeführt. AMAZALERT will enable raising the alert about critical feedbacks between climate, society, land-use change, vegetation change, water availability and policies in Amazonia. We will: 1) analyze and improve coupled models of global climate and Amazon, land use, vegetation and socio-economic drivers to quantify anthropogenic and climate induced land-use and land cover change and non-linear, irreversible feedbacks among these components 2) assess the role of regional and global policies and societal responses in the Amazon region for altering the trajectory of land-use change in the face of climate change and other anthropogenic factors and finally 3) propose i) an Early Warning System for detecting any imminent irreversible loss of Amazon ecosystem services, ii) policy response strategies to prevent such loss. We first prioritise the functions of Amazonia and threats to these. We then will analyse uncertainties in biogeochemistry, land cover (vegetation), land-use change and regional hydrology, as well as nonlinear responses and feedbacks using existing and new simulations from state of the art models in which land surface is coupled to global climate. The way in which policies and possible future response strategies of policy makers, trade and economy will affect land-use change will be modelled. This will lead to (A) understanding the impact on and effectiveness of a range of international and regional policy options, including REDD+; and (B) identification of both biophysical and socio-economic indicators of irreversible change. AMAZALERT integrates the multidisciplinary knowledge and research of world-renowned, highly influential climate, land cover, land use change scientists and also policy analysts from 14 European and South-American institutions that have been collaborating for 10 to 30 years. Thus, this project can achieve maximum impact on EU (2020 climate goals), international and South-American strategies, including REDD
Das Projekt "Climate change - Learning from the past climate (Past4Future)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universitet Köbenhavn durchgeführt. Objective: Past4Future will combine multidisciplinary paleoclimate records from ice cores, marine cores, speleothems, pollen and other records, concentrating on a global distribution of the records, to reconstruct climate change and variability during the present interglacial (the Holocene) and the last interglacial (known as the Eemian in northwestern Europe and as marine isotope stage 5e in the marine sediment records). The records will be combined in integrated analyses aided by proxy modeling and assimilation, to gain understanding of the climate processes involved in the dynamics of interglacial climates. Earth system models (ESM) including physical and biogeochemical processes will be applied to simulate the past and present interglacial climate, and to confront and intercompare the simulations with climate changes as observed from the palaeodata; this will both advance the models and our understanding of the dynamics and predictability of the climate system. Focus will be on the most recent two interglacial periods, as these provide the highest-resolved most comprehensive data records. Moreover the last interglacial represents a situation where the mean state was warmer than at present in large regions due to orbital forcing, thereby allowing tests of climate system sensitivity to constrain projections of potential future ice sheet, sea-level, circulation and biogeochemical changes. The data and Earth system model results will be used improve our capabilities to project future global and regional warming from a better understanding of relevant paleoclimates, especially in relation to sea level changes, sea ice changes and thermohaline circulation changes. The Past4Future program will draw together a world leading team of European and international partners in a concerted effort to advance our knowledge on the causes, processes and risks of abrupt changes in warm periods, such as those projected for the current and the next century. The program will inform the international debate on climate system stability and the dissemination of results will be targeted to both citizens and governmental and non-governmental stakeholders. It will leave a legacy of improved understanding of past drivers of sea level changes, changes of sea ice, and of greenhouse gas concentrations, and it will train a new generation of young climate researchers to further advance research and improved future predictions for the benefit of society and our capacity to mitigate and adapt to climate changes.
Das Projekt "Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System (CAWSES-II)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Institut für Energie- und Klimaforschung (IEK), Stratosphäre (IEK-7) durchgeführt. The Scientific Need: We are poised on the brink of discovering the important processes that connect changes at the solar surface with features in the geospace environment and ultimately with climate variability. These connections are key to understanding complex planetary environments, and the general elements that enable planets to sustain life. Scientific breakthroughs in all these areas await advances in cyberinfrastructure that will allow the worldwide research community to access international data sets, distributed sensor networks, virtual observatories, advanced computational and visualization facilities, the most sophisticated Sun-to-Earth community models available, and to communicate with each other across discipline and national boundaries. No single organization is poised to make these breakthroughs, operate these instruments, construct these models, develop and maintain research support facilities. This is a worldwide endeavor with diverse participation and stakeholders. At issue is the ability to address the frontiers of system-level science. Why Now? The past decade has seen the creation of a remarkable new capability to observe conditions simultaneously in regions from Sun-to-Earth using combinations of worldwide space and ground-based observing platforms. Simultaneously, new models of the solar dynamo that enable physics-based predictions of solar magnetic variability, suites of cutting-edge Sun-to-Earth coupled models, and 'whole atmosphere' models that simulate tropospheric climate with linkages all the way to the upper atmosphere and space weather have become available along with the necessary advances in computer hardware and software. Open data policies and a developing system of virtual observatories are making diverse data sets widely available to the research community. The availability of data by itself, however, is not enough.
Das Projekt "EU Cloud intercomparison, process study and evaluation project (EUCLIPSE)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut durchgeführt. Objective: Cloud feedbacks remain the largest source of uncertainty in projections of future climate. They are also a major contributor to uncertainty in other feedbacks (e.g., surface albedo, carbon cycle) in the Earth System. Through interactions with the large-scale circulation, cloud processes also contribute to synoptic circulations and regional climate. They are therefore critical to the prediction of future changes in precipitation patterns, climate variability and extreme events. The central objective of EUCLIPSE is to reduce the uncertainty in the representation of cloud processes and feedbacks in the new generation of Earth System Models (ESMs), in support of the IPCC's fifth assessment report. Novel, process-oriented evaluations of clouds in present-day and future climate simulations made by the leading European ESMs will identify the cloud types and processes responsible for the spread in climate sensitivity and future precipitation changes across the models, and for deficiencies in the simulation of the present-day climate. The new diagnostics and metrics developed in EUCLIPSE will inform targeted sensitivity experiments to isolate the processes responsible for cloud feedback uncertainty. In EUCLIPSE, four distinct communities will work together across a set of integrated work packages over a four-year period: the observational community will provide state-of-the-art measurements from ground- and space-based active and passive remote sensing; the numerical weather prediction community will provide analyses of short timescale model biases induced by cloud processes; the cloud modeling community will provide fine-scale models as an additional tool for understanding cloud behavior in a changing climate; finally, the climate modeling community will synthesize the physical understanding and observational constraints identified by the other communities to improve the representation and assessment of cloud processes in ESMs and so improve the predictive skill of ESMs.
Das Projekt "Thermohaline overturning - at risk? (THOR)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Hamburg, Department Geowissenschaften durchgeführt. THOR will establish an operational system that will monitor and forecast the development of the North Atlantic THC on decadal time scales and access its stability and the risk of a breakdown in a changing climate. Together with pre-existing data sets, ongoing observations within the project will allow precise quantitative monitoring of the Atlantic THC and its sources. This will, for the first time, allow an assessment of the strength of the Atlantic THC and its sources in a consistent manner and will provide early identification of any systematic changes in the THC that might occur. Analysis of palaeo observations covering the last millennium and millennium time scale experiments with coupled climate models will be carried out to identify the relevant key processes and feedback mechanisms between ocean, atmosphere, and cryosphere. In THOR, the combined effect of various global warming scenarios and melting of the Greenland ice sheet will also be thoroughly assessed in a coupled climate model. Through these studies and through the assimilation of systematic oceanic observations at key locations into ocean circulation models, THOR will forecast the development of the Atlantic THC and its variability until 2025, using global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. THOR will also assess induced climate implications of changes in the THC and the probability of extreme climate events with special emphasis on the European/North Atlantic region. THOR builds upon techniques, methods and models developed during several projects funded within FP5 and FP6 as well as many nationally funded projects. The project will contribute to Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES), to Global Observing Systems such as to the Global Ocean Observing system (GOOS), and to the International Polar Year (IPY).
Das Projekt "FS SONNE (SO 214) NEMESYS: Variabilität von submarinen Gasaustritten in Struktur und Chemie und deren Klimarelevanz - Hikurangi Margin Neuseeland - Teilvorhaben A: Variabilität von submarinen Gasaustritten in Struktur und Chemie und deren Klimarelevanz - Hikurangi Margin Neuseeland" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel (GEOMAR) durchgeführt. Aktive Gasaustrittsstellen (Seeps) am Hikurangi Margin zeigen eine starke Variabilität. Bereits bekannte Seeps sollen mit geochemischen und geophysikalischen Methoden weiter untersucht werden. Ziel ist es, die bisherigen Erkenntnisse über Variationen durch möglichst engmaschige Vermessungsnetze zu erweitern und 3-D Vermessungsstrategien anzuwenden. Entlang des Hikurangi Margins sind Seeps nicht nur von möglichen tektonischen Variationen beeinflusst, sondern treten auch in sehr unterschiedlichen Wassertiefen auf. Mit dem Partner BGR ist auch der Einsatz mariner elektromagnetischer Vermessungen möglich, die besonders in der Verbindung mit der Seismik zu wesentlich detaillierteren Tiefenaussagen über Hydratverteilungen führen. Es wurden fünf Hauptarbeitsgebiete ausgewählt, die nach der vorliegenden Datengrundlage am besten für die dargelegten wissenschaftlichen Ziele geeignet sind. Hierzu sind neue seismische Techniken (P-Cable 3-D, DeepTow), elektromagnetische Messungen, ein 3-D Grid von Sensorischen und geochemischen Methanmessungen in der Wassersäule und geoakustisches 3-D-Flare Imaging vorgesehen. Neben den kurzzeitigen Messungen während der Forschungsfahrt wird der Vergleich mit früheren Fahrten (SO-191, FS TANGAROA) auch Stichproben für langfristige Variabilitäten bieten.
Das Projekt "InfraStructure for the European Network for Earth System Modelling (IS-ENES)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique durchgeführt. IS-ENES will develop a Virtual Earth System Modelling Resource Centre (V.E.R.C.), integrating the European Earth system models (ESMs) and their hardware, software, and data environments. The overarching goal of this e-infrastructure is to further integrate the European climate modelling community, to help the definition of a common future strategy, to ease the development of full ESMs, to foster the execution and exploitation of high-end simulations, and to support the dissemination of model results and the interaction with the climate change impact community. The V.E.R.C. encompasses models, the tools to prepare, evaluate, run, store and exploit model simulations, the access to model results and to the European high-performance computing ecosystem in particular the EU large infrastructures DEISA2 and PRACE. The V.E.R.C. developed by IS-ENES is based on generic ICT, Grid technology and subject-specific simulation codes and software environments. The European Network for Earth System Modelling (ENES) leads IS-ENES. This network gathers the European climate and Earth system modelling community working on understanding and prediction of future climate change. This community is strongly involved in the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and provides the predictions on which EU mitigation and adaptation policies are elaborated. IS-ENES combines expertise in Earth system modelling, in computational science, and in studies of climate change impacts. IS-ENES will provide a service on models and model results both to modelling groups and to the users of model results, especially the impact community. Joint research activities will improve the efficient use of high-performance computers, model evaluation tool sets, access to model results, and prototype climate services for the impact community. Networking activities will increase the cohesion of the European ESM community and advance a coherent European Network for Earth System modelling.
Das Projekt "HOSINIL: Rekonstruktion von Klimaschwankungen im nördlichen subtropischen Afrika während des Holozäns auf Zeitskalen von Jahreszeiten bis Jahrtausenden: Zusammenhänge zwischen Niederschlag, Vegetation und Erosionsdynamik anhand von laminierten Sedimenten des Nil-S" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel (GEOMAR) durchgeführt. Rekonstruktion von Klimaschwankungen im nördlichen subtropischen Afrika während des Holozäns auf Zeitskalen von Jahreszeiten bis Jahrtausenden: Zusammenhänge zwischen Niederschlag, Vegetation und Erosionsdynamik anhand von laminierten Sedimenten des Nil-S
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