Das Projekt "Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System (CAWSES-II)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Institut für Energie- und Klimaforschung (IEK), Stratosphäre (IEK-7) durchgeführt. The Scientific Need: We are poised on the brink of discovering the important processes that connect changes at the solar surface with features in the geospace environment and ultimately with climate variability. These connections are key to understanding complex planetary environments, and the general elements that enable planets to sustain life. Scientific breakthroughs in all these areas await advances in cyberinfrastructure that will allow the worldwide research community to access international data sets, distributed sensor networks, virtual observatories, advanced computational and visualization facilities, the most sophisticated Sun-to-Earth community models available, and to communicate with each other across discipline and national boundaries. No single organization is poised to make these breakthroughs, operate these instruments, construct these models, develop and maintain research support facilities. This is a worldwide endeavor with diverse participation and stakeholders. At issue is the ability to address the frontiers of system-level science. Why Now? The past decade has seen the creation of a remarkable new capability to observe conditions simultaneously in regions from Sun-to-Earth using combinations of worldwide space and ground-based observing platforms. Simultaneously, new models of the solar dynamo that enable physics-based predictions of solar magnetic variability, suites of cutting-edge Sun-to-Earth coupled models, and 'whole atmosphere' models that simulate tropospheric climate with linkages all the way to the upper atmosphere and space weather have become available along with the necessary advances in computer hardware and software. Open data policies and a developing system of virtual observatories are making diverse data sets widely available to the research community. The availability of data by itself, however, is not enough.
Das Projekt "Quantifying the Climate Impact of Global and European Transport Systems (QUANTIFY)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Oberpfaffenhofen durchgeführt. The main goal of QUANTIFY is to quantify the climate impact of global and European transport systems for the present situation and for several scenarios of future development. The climate impact of various transport modes (land surface, shipping, aviation) will be assessed, including those of long-lived greenhouse gases like CO2 and N2O, and in particular the effects of emissions of ozone precursors and particles, as well as of contrails and ship tracks. The project goal includes provision of forecasts and other policy-relevant advice, which will be supplied to governments and to international assessments of climate change and ozone depletion, such as the IPCC reports (Kyoto Protocol) and WMO-UNEP ozone assessments (Montreal Protocol). Using significantly improved transport emission inventories, better evaluated and hence more reliable models, these new forecasts in QUANTIFY will represent a considerable improvement of current predictions. Long time scales are involved in the transport system and its effects on climate: Some transportation modes have long development and in-service times; some emissions have long residence times and thermal inertia of the climate system protracts possible effects. Yet the impact of short-lived species depends on location and time of the emissions. So several transport scenarios and potential mitigation options need to be assessed on a sound common basis to identify the most effective combination of short and long-term measures and to inform policymakers and industry. We aim to provide such guidance by focused field measurements, exploitation of existing data, a range of numerical models, and new policy-relevant metrics of climate change. To achieve the goal, several advances in our fundamental understanding of atmospheric processes will be required such as the mechanisms by which pollutants are transported from exhaust into the free atmosphere, the impact of pollutants on clouds and the role of absorbing aerosols.
Das Projekt "Organics over the Ocean Modifying Particles in both Hemispheres (OOMPH)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie (Otto-Hahn-Institut) durchgeführt. Considering its size and potential importance, the ocean is surprisingly poorly characterised in terms of organic gases that play important roles in global atmospheric chemistry. In this project we aim to characterise the nature of organic trace species, in particular organic oxygenates, and the rate of emissions from marine biology. The oxidation of these compounds in air is directly linked to the global ozone budget while the oxidation pathways in seawater are largely unknown. We will conduct laboratory experiments on seawater samples and specific phytoplankton types to determine the effect of basic biophysical parameters (e.g. temperature, pH, plankton growth rate and physiological state) on the emission of organic species. The photooxidation rates and products of these species will be examined through measurements. Marine aerosols, with emphasis on the organic fraction, will also be investigated in terms of physical, chemical (mass closure), hygroscopic and optical properties. Two shipborne research cruises will be performed to assess both emission and uptake in the open ocean, and contrast the pristine tropical Southern Hemispheric with the more strongly anthropogenically affected Northern Hemisphere. Based on the laboratory and field measurements an interactive atmosphere-ocean chemistry model will be developed, basic to global Earth system simulations.
Das Projekt "Thermohaline overturning - at risk? (THOR)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Hamburg, Department Geowissenschaften durchgeführt. THOR will establish an operational system that will monitor and forecast the development of the North Atlantic THC on decadal time scales and access its stability and the risk of a breakdown in a changing climate. Together with pre-existing data sets, ongoing observations within the project will allow precise quantitative monitoring of the Atlantic THC and its sources. This will, for the first time, allow an assessment of the strength of the Atlantic THC and its sources in a consistent manner and will provide early identification of any systematic changes in the THC that might occur. Analysis of palaeo observations covering the last millennium and millennium time scale experiments with coupled climate models will be carried out to identify the relevant key processes and feedback mechanisms between ocean, atmosphere, and cryosphere. In THOR, the combined effect of various global warming scenarios and melting of the Greenland ice sheet will also be thoroughly assessed in a coupled climate model. Through these studies and through the assimilation of systematic oceanic observations at key locations into ocean circulation models, THOR will forecast the development of the Atlantic THC and its variability until 2025, using global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. THOR will also assess induced climate implications of changes in the THC and the probability of extreme climate events with special emphasis on the European/North Atlantic region. THOR builds upon techniques, methods and models developed during several projects funded within FP5 and FP6 as well as many nationally funded projects. The project will contribute to Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES), to Global Observing Systems such as to the Global Ocean Observing system (GOOS), and to the International Polar Year (IPY).
Das Projekt "Improving and Applying Methods for the Calculation of Natural and Biogenic Emissions and Assessment of Impacts on Air Quality (NATAIR)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Stuttgart, Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung durchgeführt. This project aims to improve methods for the calculation of natural and biogenic emissions from various sources and the assessment of impacts on air quality policy implementation. Air pollutants from natural und biogenic sources contribute to ambient air concentrations in the same way as anthropogenic emissions, however, the uncertainty of the estimation of these natural and biogenic emissions is much higher than for anthropogenic emissions. At the same time, with anthropogenic emissions currently decreasing due to emission control activities in many sectors, the relative importance of other sources increases. Thus, it is essential to develop new and improve existing methods for the quantification of emissions from natural and biogenic sources and to use new and improved input data. The project takes into account the latest research results on air pollutant emissions and their impacts, covering all relevant substances (NOx, SOx, NH3, PM, NMVOC; CH4, CO, DMS) from natural and biogenic sources in Europe, e.g. the results from the 'Nature Panel' within the UNECE Task Force Emission Inventories and Projection, and includes anthropogenic emissions officially reported to EMEP by countries. Furthermore, the National Reports for the NEC directive for SOx, NOx, NH3 and NMVOC will be taken into account, as well as the results of EU research projects such as NOFRETETE or the results from the EUROTRAC Subproject GENEMIS. Satellite data will be used e.g. for the improvement of calculations from forests in general as well as forest fires in particular. In order to assess the impacts of emissions from natural and biogenic sources on air quality policy implementation, the project is designed to advance the current state-of-the-art in methodology for the calculation of natural and biogenic emissions. This includes the analysis of temporal and spatial variabilitys and the assessment of uncertainties and sensitivities. In addition, the influence of the improved natural and biogenic emissions on the concentration of pollutants calculated with atmospheric models will be analysed using the model CHIMERE. Finally, policy strategies that are currently under discussion within the EC CAFÉ programme and in the frame of the UNECE CLRTAP to reduce anthropogenic emissions will be analysed in the view of these new results.
Das Projekt "Climate Change and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern Europe (CLAVIER)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie durchgeführt. Observational records show that the global climate is changing and ongoing changes are also visible in Central Eastern Europe. About 64 percent of all catastrophic events in Europe since 1980 can directly be attributed to weather and climate extremes. Climate change projections show even an increasing likelihood of extremes. Certainly negative impacts of climate change will involve significant economic losses in several regions of Europe, while others may bring health or welfare problems somewhere else. Within CLAVIER three representative Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) will be studied in detail: Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. Researches from 6 countries and different disciplines, will identify linkages between climate change and its impact on weather patterns with consequences on air pollution, extreme events, and on water resources. Furthermore, an evaluation of the economic impact on agriculture, tourism, energy supply and the public sector will be conducted. This is of increasing importance for CEEC, which are currently facing a rapid economic development, but also for the European Union as e.g. Romanias and Bulgarias high vulnerability from extreme events such as floods will impact not only the respective economic goals for joining the EU but also the EU solidarity fund. CLAVIER will focus on ongoing and future climate changes in Central and Eastern European Countries using measurements and existing regional scenarios to determine possible developments of the climate and to address related uncertainty. In addition, climate projections with very high detail will be carried out for CEEC to fulfill the need for a large amount of detail in time and space which is inherent in local and regional impact assessment. CLAVIER will establish a large data base, tools and methodologies, which contribute to reasonable planning for a successful development of society and economy in Central and Eastern European countries under climate change conditions.
Das Projekt "High-resolution continental paleoclimate record from lake baikal: a key-site for eurasian teleconnections to the north atlantic ocean and monsoonal system (CONTINENT)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam (GFZ), Sektion 5.2 Geothermie durchgeführt. CONTINENT aims to (i) reconstruct abrupt climate changes during the Holocene and Eemian and Terminations I and II in Eurasia and (ii) to compare these records with abrupt changes in Europe. Sediment cores will be selected using seismic survey in Baikal. Biogenic and minerogenic particle fluxes will be monitored through the water column and into the sediments using remote sensing and trap arrays. Attention will be paid to processes occurring at the sediment/water-interface (to produce mass balance models for climate proxies). Climate reconstructions will be based on a multiproxy approach at high time resolution (diatoms, pollen, biomarkers, stable isotopes, photosynthetic pigments and minerogenic particles). Transfer functions will be derived using multivariate techniques. An age model will be constructed allowing the rate of changes to be assessed and compared to European records. Special emphasis will be towards a better understanding of teleconnections.
Das Projekt "European and Russian Extreme events: Mechanisms, Variability and Future Climate Change" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel (GEOMAR) durchgeführt. Over the last century, a considerable increase in global, hemispheric and regional average surface temperatures has been observed, along with trends in temperature and precipitation extremes. The first decade of the 21st century was globally the warmest in the instrumental temperature record and has brought a number of remarkable weather and climate extremes to European countries and Russia which had considerable impacts on society and ecosystems. Among the most recent of these extreme events are the cold winter of 2009/2010, the Russian heat wave of 2010 and the flooding in Central Europe in 2010. Further extreme events affecting Europe and Russia are extreme air pollution, strong marine storms and wind waves and fast permafrost thawing. In this project, we shall investigate if these extremes are already affected by and in which way they will change in the future in response to global warming. Third, we shall assess the representation of extreme events in climate models, in particular as a function of model resolution, and on regional scales. Fourth, we shall develop future scenarios of extreme events in Europe and Russia including the associated uncertainties. To address these questions, we shall carry out case study simulations, sensitivity integrations and future projections with global and very high-resolution regional climate models in different forcing and coupling settings. These experiments and additional millennial-long control runs will be validated against observational data by means of modern statistical methods, in particular extreme value theory, vector-generalised regression models and cyclone tracking algorithms. The regional climate model projections will be bias-corrected with a special focus on correcting the magnitudes of extreme events. The project will extend the existing collaboration between the participating institutes on largescale climate phenomena towards extreme events on a regional scale. By bringing together expertise in regional climate, global climate as well as statistical modelling and data analysis, a unique research team will be created capable to address a wide range of scientific questions regarding extreme events under climate change. The project will lead to a direct knowledge transfer from the IFM-GEOMAR to the Russian teams in global climate modelling and extreme value theory, and vice versa in regional climate modelling. The anticipated results will improve the understanding of the mechanisms underlying extreme events and their variability and can be used to better predict potential future events. The improved predictability on decadal to multi-decadal time scales and the provision of biascorrected scenarios of future climate extremes and their associated uncertainties will help end users and stake holders to implement adaptation measures to changes in the statistics of extreme events, and will help policy makers to assess the required degree of climate change mitigation. (abridged text)
Das Projekt "Europaeisches Aerosol-Lidar-Forschungsnetzwerk zur Schaffung einer Aerosolklimatologie" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie durchgeführt. Objective: Problems to be solved: Aerosols affect life on earth in several ways. They play an important role in the climate system; the effect of aerosols on the global climate system is one of the major uncertainties of present climate predictions. They play a major role in atmospheric chemistry and hence affect the concentrations of other potentially harmful atmospheric constituents, e.g. ozone. They are an important controlling factor for the radiation budget, in particular in the UV-B part of the spectrum. At ground level, they can be harmful, even toxic, to man, animals, and plants. Because of these adverse effects that aerosols can have on human life, it is necessary to achieve an advanced understanding of the processes that generate, redistribute, and remove aerosols in the atmosphere. A quantitative dataset describing the aerosol vertical, horizontal, and temporal distribution, including its variability on a continental scale, is necessary. Such a dataset could be used to validate and improve models that predict the future state of the atmosphere and its dependence on different scenarios describing economic development, including those actions taken to preserve the quality of the environment. No suitable data set for this purpose presently exists. Scientific objectives and approach: EARLINET will establish a quantitative comprehensive statistical database of the horizontal, vertical, and temporal distribution of aerosols on a continental scale. The goal is to provide aerosol data with unbiased sampling, for important selected processes, and air-mass history, together with comprehensive analyses of these data. The objectives will be reached by implementing a network of 21 stations distributed over most of Europe, using advanced quantitative laser remote sensing to directly measure the vertical distribution of aerosols, supported by a suite of more conventional observations. Special care will be taken to assure data quality, including intercomparisons at instrument and evaluation levels. A major part of the measurements will be performed according to a fixed schedule to provide an unbiased statistically significant data set. Additional measurements will be performed to specifically address important processes that are localised either in space or time. Back-trajectories derived from operational weather prediction models will be used to characterise the history of the observed air parcels, accounting explicitly for the vertical distribution. Expected impacts: EARLINET will make a major contribution to the quantification of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions and concentrations of aerosol, quantification of their budgets, radiative properties and prediction of future trends. It will also further the understanding of physical and chemical processes related to these species, their long range transport and deposition, and the interaction of aerosols with clouds.
Das Projekt "Klimawirksamkeit von Rußpartikeln in Baden-Württemberg (REGIOsoot)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbH in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft, Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung durchgeführt. Mit dem im vorliegenden Projekt weiterentwickelten Modellsystem COSMO-ART wurde ein Instrumentarium erstellt, mit dem es erstmals möglich war, den Einfluss von Ruß und anderem anthropogenen Aerosol auf den Atmosphärenzustand in Baden-Württemberg zu quantifizieren. Darüber hinaus wurden Emissionsdaten erstellt, die es unter Verwendung von COSMO-ART erlauben, die Auswirkungen von Emissionsminderungsmaßnahen zum einen auf die Konzentrationsverteilungen aber auch auf die Modifikationen des Atmosphärenzustandes zu berechnen. Es konnten erstmals die Wechselwirkungen zwischen Rußpartikeln und dem Atmosphärenzustand auf der regionalen Skala in einer Komplexität quantifiziert werden, die bisher nicht erreicht wurde. Für den betrachteten Sommerfall konnte folgendes gezeigt werden: - Die Wechselwirkungsprozesse zwischen Aerosolpartikeln und den meteorologischen Feldern wie Strahlungs- und Temperaturfeld für das Gebiet von Baden-Württemberg konnten für den simulierten sommerlichen Witterungsabschnitt quantifiziert werden. Die kurzwellige Strahlungsbilanz wird typischerweise um etwa 10 W m2 verringert. Die bodennahe Lufttemperatur geht im Flächenmittel um etwa 0.1 K zurück. Obwohl im Projekt keine Wechselwirkung von Aerosol und Wolkenmikrophysik betrachtet wird, sind auch beträchtliche Effekte auf die Wolkenbedeckung zu erkennen, die lokal zu großen Änderungen der bodennahen Temperatur von mehr als plus/minus 3 K führen. Die Wolkeneffekte sind wesentlich ausgeprägter als vor der Studie erwartet worden war, und stellen daher eine wichtige neue Erkenntnis dar. - Für Zukunftsszenarien für das Jahr 2010 ist für den Sommer mit einem Rückgang der Aerosolbeladung um ca. 1 bis 5 Mikro g m3 zu rechnen, was im Flächenmittel etwa 10-20 Prozent entspricht. Die mittleren Rußkonzentrationen von ca. 1 Mikro g m3 im Referenzlauf werden in etwa halbiert werden. Die hier angegebenen Änderungen werden ausschließlich durch Emissionsänderungen innerhalb des kleinen, im Wesentlichen aus Baden-Württemberg bestehen Gebietes, bewirkt. In der Realität kann daher eher von einem noch größeren Minderungspotential der Aerosolbeladung ausgegangen werden.
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