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CLEAR: Neuartige Reaktionen auf vorhergesehene Klimaaenderungen

Das Projekt "CLEAR: Neuartige Reaktionen auf vorhergesehene Klimaaenderungen" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Eidgenössische Anstalt für Wasserversorgung, Abwasserreinigung und Gewässerschutz, Abteilung Humanökologie durchgeführt. 1eading Questions: How is climate change information disseminated in the general public? What role plays uncertainty of such information with respect to processes of social learning and norm-building? Do such processes support the development of innovations? Which innovations will provide social benefits even if the predicted climate changes do not occur? Which factors influence regional public acceptance of such innovations? Abstract: The project aims at understanding reduction possibilities for greenhouse gas emissions in industrialized societies. Policy strategies relying on technical efficiency often fail because they neglect institutional and behavioral barriers. Therefore, social factors and mechanisms have to be taken into account for the design of powerful climate policy instruments. In our project, socio-technical innovation processes are analyzed in a case study on light weight vehicles (lwv). Qualitative interviews are used as the major method. First results are: (1) Swiss prototypes and components of lwv's are among the best worldwide. (2) Lwv's could help to stabilize or even reduce Swiss greenhouse gas emissions. (3) Manufacturing prospects of lwv's are threatened by substantial uncertainties. (4) Adequate policy instruments would reduce these uncertainties. (5) A better understanding of consumers' preference formation is central for the assessment of lwv's market potential, and thus reduces uncertainties. Complementary information: Climate change can affect human societies in two ways: (1) directly by physical impacts and (2) indirectly by an anticipation of impacts that leads to changes of legislation, economic expectations, cultural values, etc. This second kind of effects, which is strongly dependent on the results of climate modeling, is the theme of the present project. We will investigate the relation between climate models elaborated by natural scientists and the conceptions of human-induced climate change developed by decision-makers as well as by the general public. We will study whether inconsistent and uncertain information is likely to reinforce existing conflict patterns if such information does not contribute to the creation of social rules for handling climate risk conflicts. Our research will concentrate on the regional level (the border areas of Basle, Ticino and the Jura), as regions have been shown to be important incubators of innovation processes, including the evolution of new social rules. In two case studies, regional innovation processes that could contribute to a reduction of CO2-emissions will be scrutinized and evaluated with regard to economic feasibility and social acceptability. The first case concerns the development, production and/or commercialisation of electric vehicles. The second case study deals with new forms of business organisation that reduce commuting, especially in urban areas, by decentralising office space into neighborhoods.

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