Das Projekt "Empfindlichkeits- und Unsicherheitsanalysen von Klimaszenarien und Reaktionen der Oekosysteme in den Alpen (SENSUALP) - Teil B2: Landwirtschaftliche Oekosysteme" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Eidgenössische Forschungsanstalt für Agrarökologie und Landbau, Institut für Umweltschutz und Landwirtschaft durchgeführt. This project is concerned with the sensitivity of managed grasslands in alpine regions to changes in climatic conditions and CO2, in relationship to grassland utilization, i.e. animal production. The aims are (a) to evaluate possible shifts in productivity and C-storage in response to different down-scaled local weather scenarios, which are derived from GCM projections for 2xCO2, and to compare the shifts between sites differing in altitude and in edaphic conditions, and (b) to assess consequences for agricultural management. The analysis is carried by using the mechanistic grassland ecosystem model PASIM. The work is divided into four levels, including simulations of grassland production at the patch-scale, regional aggregation, combination of forage and animal production at the farm-level, and exploration of uncertainty in future projections of regional sensitivities. Specific goals of the project are (a) quantification of the sensitivity of grassland ecosystem processes to climate change and increased CO2, (b) advancement of techniques and knowledge to understand mechanisms of uncertainty propagation across disciplinary boundaries, (c) comparison between grassland and forest responses, and (d) analysis of adaptation options for mountain farming at the farm-level. The modelling results are complemented by the evaluation of historical trGeo-Thesaurusction, and by an analysis of the public opinion among mountain farmers in different regions. Leading Questions: Sensitivity of the productivity of mountain pastures and meadows to changes in climate and (CO2). Shift in the cultivation limit of specific high-yielding grasses e.g. Lolium perenne) due to a change in snow cover: Implications for production at farm level. Consequences of changes in grassland productivity for animal husbandry (e.g. stocking density) and nutrient dynamics.