Objective: SHIVA aims to reduce uncertainties in present and future stratospheric halogen loading and ozone depletion resulting from climate feedbacks between emissions and transport of ozone depleting substances (ODS). Of particular relevance will be studies of short and very short-lived substances (VSLS) with climate-sensitive natural emissions. We will perform field studies of ODS production, emission and transport in understudied, but critical, regions of the tropics using ship, aircraft and ground-based instrumentation. We will parameterize potential climate sensitivities of emissions based on inter-dependencies derived from our own field studies, and surveys of ongoing work in this area. We will study the chemical transformation of ODS during transport from the surface to the tropical tropopause layer (TTL), and in the stratosphere, using a combination of aircraft and balloon observations together with process-oriented meso-scale modelling. These investigations will be corroborated by space-based remote sensing of marine phytoplankton biomass as a possible proxy for the ocean-atmosphere flux of ODS. From this a systematic emission inventory of VSLS ODS will be established to allow construction of future-climate scenarios. The impact of climate-sensitive feedbacks between transport and the delivery of ODS to the stratosphere, and their lifetime within it, will be studied using tracer observations and modelling. Further global modelling will assess the contribution of all ODS, including VSLS (which have hitherto normally been excluded from such models) to past, present and future ozone loss. Here, the sensitivity of natural ODS emissions to climate change parameters will be used in combination with standard IPCC climate model scenarios in order to drive measurement-calibrated chemical transport model (CTM) simulations for present and future stratospheric ozone; to better predict the rate, timing and climate-sensitivity of ozone-layer recovery.
Threats to the environment and natural resources, coupled with poor management, have serious implications for both poverty reduction and sustainable economic development. Degrading natural resources in Africa therefore result in an inreased vulnerability of the poor as a result of ecosystem stress, competition for space, soaring food and energy prices, climate change and demographic growth. Nowadays, it is widely accepted that reversing these trends asks for integrated management frameworks. Despite the availability of many tools, expertise, strategies, local practices and indigenous knowledge, the concept of INRM has hardly been brought into practice and the building blocks of INRM (see description acronym) in many cases still need to be integrated. AFROMAISON will make use of what is available regarding INRM and will contribute to a better integration of the components of INRM. In view of the decentralization policy in Africa, we aim to focus on the operational requirements of INRM for sub-national (or meso-scale) authorities and communities. The main outputs of AFROMAISON are a toolbox, short-term to long-term strategies, quick wins (much gains with little effort) and operational strategies for adaptation to global change. In order to enhance the potential impact, we will put strong efforts in integrated capacity building and a solid dissemination strategy. In order to do so, we will integrate tools, frameworks, strategies and processes for landscape functioning, livelihood & socio-economic development (incl. vulnerability to global change), local knowledge, institutional strenghtening and improved interaction between sectors, scales and communities. For the development of concrete operational strategies for adaptation to global change, AFROMAISON will focus on the three groups of tools: strategies for restoration and adaptation (including sustainable landscape intensification), economic tools and incentives for INRM and tools for spatial planning.
Objective: We will determine the air pollution distribution and change in and around hotspots over the last decade from extensive satellite and in-situ observations and we will employ a series of different scale models in order to analyze the impacts of air pollution hot spots on regional and global air quality including potential future changes for various climate scenarios. Focus is on ozone and particulate matter with chemical and physical characterization, and their precursors. The Eastern Mediterranean (Istanbul, Athens, Cairo), the Po Valley, the BeNeLux region, the Pearl River Delta in China (with megacities Guangzhou and Hong Kong) and the hot and polluted European summer 2003 are chosen for intensive case studies. The consortium includes groups from China, Turkey, Greece and Italy, in addition to France, Germany, UK and Norway, with experts on the observations, emission data and models. A set of chemical transport models which connect all the most important spatial and temporal scales will be developed and used to quantify how the observed air pollution arises. The models and emission inventories will be evaluated, errors identified and improved on the urban, regional and global spatial scales. Climate change may cause changes in air pollution in and around hotspots, and hotspot pollution can change precipitation and temperature/albedo. These feedbacks will be studied in scale-bridging model systems based on global climate model scenarios, and in a coupled high resolution chemistry-climate model. The model systems evaluated in the project will be applied to analyse mitigation options in and around hotpots, also taking into account climate change. Best available technologies and sectoral changes will be studied. Several partners have key roles in the technical underpinning of policy. They will ensure that the improved emission inventories, scale-bridging model systems and the systematic observational evidence will have a significant, broad and lasting impact.
CARBOOCEAN IP aims at an accurate assessment of the marine carbon sources and sinks. Target is to reduce the present uncertainties in the quantification of net annual air-sea CO2 fluxes by a factor of 2 for the world ocean and by a factor of 4 for the Atlantic Ocean. The IP will deliver description, process-oriented understanding and prediction of the marine carbon sources and sinks with special emphasis on the Atlantic and Southern Oceans on a time scale -200 to +200 years from now. Expected breakthroughs by CARBOOCEAN IP will be firm answers to the following as yet unresolved questions: How large are the Atlantic and Southern Ocean CO2 sinks precisely, i.e. how efficient is the downward transport of carbon in the deep-water production areas of the world ocean? What do European rivers and shelf seas contribute to the large scale CO2 sources and sinks pattern of the North Atlantic Ocean in relation to uptake within Western Europe ? What are the key biogeochemical feedbacks that can affect ocean carbon uptake and how do they operate? What is the quantitative global and regional impact of such feedbacks when forced by climatic change in the next 200 years? CARBOOCEAN IP will answer these questions through basic research in a strategic combination of extensive large-scale observations, process studies and advanced computer models focusing on all quantitatively important aspects to the problem. The project is based on three elements - observations, process studies, and integrative modelling - equivalent to description, understanding and prediction: A marine carbon balance for the last 200 years based on high quality observations. A process-based understanding of the marine carbon cycle response to a change in forcing as derived from process studies in the field, in the laboratory, and through modelling. Integrated carbon budgets for the interval -200 to +200 years from now by synthesis of a modelling framework with observations and new feedback. Prime Contractor: University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research; Bergen; Norway.
Substantial improvement of our present knowledge of Earth System dynamics is paramount for the development of reliable strategies for actions vital to the human society in terms of achieving sustainable development and ensuring security. This requires for the various system components long-term integrated global data series from a large variety of sensors and networks combined with high performance rapid computing and a uniform and efficient access to distributed data archives and data information systems. The SSA proposed here aims (1) at assessing the status quo situation of two major components of the Earth observing system, namely the global geodetic and global geohazards observing systems as indispensable prerequisites for the consistent global monitoring of the Earth system environment and security aspects of population and (2) identifying deficiencies and gaps in both components and providing advice for the implementation of necessary adaptations and potential new developments in network-, shared computing-, and information/data management task for the observing techniques involved.
Im Rahmen dieses Projektes sollen an hochauflösenden Sedimentkernen aus dem westlichen Ostseeraum, einem Fjord der Faroer Inseln, dem Scoresby-Sund auf Grönland und aus zwei Hochakkumulationsgebieten des Nordatlantiks einerseits kurzfristige spätglaziale und holozäne Klimaschwankungen rekonstruiert und andererseits Rückschlüsse auf deren Antriebsmechanismen gezogen werden. Den Untersuchungen liegt die Annahme zugrunde, dass besonders Randbereiche der Eiskappen rasch auf atmosphärische Temperaturschwankungen u.a. mit variierendem Schmelzwasserausstoß reagieren und damit auch die Zirkulation im Nordatlantik und das Klima der Nordhemisphäre steuern.
Objective: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) sponsored the Global Framework on Climate Services (GFCS) where the need for actionable climate information for periods from several months up to several years for economic, industrial and political planning has been expressed. However, progress in seasonal forecasting has been slow and decadal forecasting is still incipient. At the same time, new model components to address the role of sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, ocean and their resolution in global models are now available from the climate change and weather forecasting communities. Methods for sophisticated downscaling and calibration for local, reliable climate predictions are scarce in Europe. In this context, SPECS aims to identify the main problems in climate prediction and investigate a battery of solutions from a seamless perspective. SPECS will undertake research and dissemination activities to deliver a new generation of European climate forecast systems, with improved forecast quality and efficient regionalisation tools to produce reliable, local climate information over land at seasonal-to-decadal time scales, and provide an enhanced communication protocol and services to satisfy the climate information needs of a wide range of public and private stakeholders.
Zeitreihen von Ozean-Beobachtungssystemen sollen zur Verifizierung des MIKLIP Vorhersagesystems verwendet werden. Zum einen werden die Ozeanbedingungen der Initialisierung überprüft (Modul A) und zum Abgleich mit den dekadischen Vorhersagen im 'hindcast mode' des MiKlip Systems herangezogen (Modul D). Der Vergleich basiert auf einer Anzahl von Ozean-Klima-Indizes mit dem Fokus auf den Atlantischen Ozean, die aus räumlich-zeitlich integrierten Beobachtungen stammen. Die Ergebnisse werden zum einen die dekadische Vorhersagbarkeit der Ozeaneigenschaften überprüfen. Zum anderen lassen sie aber auch darauf schließen, welche Art von Ozean-Observatorien für eine Analyse der dekadischen Variabilität und deren möglichen Vorhersage benötigt werden. Eine gezielte Analyse der Zeitreihen soll mit dem Anspruch realisiert werden, die Qualität der dekadischen MIKLIP Vorhersagemodelle bewerten zu können. Zwei Aspekte werden hier hervorgehoben: 1. die Qualität der Initialisierung und 2. die Qualität der Modelle im Verlauf der Vorhersage. Die Methodik verlangt nach der Entwicklung einer Serie von räumlich-zeitlich integrierten Klima-Indizes. Einige werden aus globalen Datensätzen wie dem Argo-Projekt gebildet, während andere aus verankerten Zeitreihen für drei klimarelevante Regionen des Nordatlantiks entwickelt werden: R1) die Konvektionszonen des subpolaren Nordatlantiks; R2) die Basin-integrierenden meridionalen Transporte bei 16 N (MOVE) und 26 N (RAPID); R3) die zonalen Transporte im oberflächennahen äquatorialen Atlantik.
Objective: CARBOCHANGE will provide the best possible process-based quantification of net ocean carbon uptake under changing climate conditions using past and present ocean carbon cycle changes for a better prediction of future ocean carbon uptake. We will improve the quantitative understanding of key biogeochemical and physical processes through a combination of observations and models. We will upscale new process understanding to large-scale integrative feedbacks of the ocean carbon cycle to climate change and rising carbon dioxide concentrations. We will quantify the vulnerability of the ocean carbon sources and sinks in a probabilistic sense using cutting edge coupled Earth system models under a spectrum of emission scenarios including climate stabilisation scenarios as required for the 5th IPCC assessment report. The drivers for the vulnerabilities will be identified. The most actual observations of the changing ocean carbon sink will be systematically integrated with the newest ocean carbon models, a coupled land-ocean model, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, and fully fledged Earth system models through a spectrum of data assimilation methods as well as advanced performance assessment tools. Results will be optimal process descriptions and most realistic error margins for future ocean carbon uptake quantifications with models under the presently available observational evidence. The project will deliver calibrated future evolutions of ocean pH and carbonate saturation as required by the research community on ocean acidification in the EU project EPOCA and further projects in this field. The time history of atmosphere-ocean carbon fluxes past, present, and future will be synthesised globally as well as regionally for the transcontinental RECCAP project. Observations and model results will merge into GEOSS/GEO through links with the European coordination action COCOS and will prepare the marine branch of the European Research Infrastructure ICOS.
Over the last century, a considerable increase in global, hemispheric and regional average surface temperatures has been observed, along with trends in temperature and precipitation extremes. The first decade of the 21st century was globally the warmest in the instrumental temperature record and has brought a number of remarkable weather and climate extremes to European countries and Russia which had considerable impacts on society and ecosystems. Among the most recent of these extreme events are the cold winter of 2009/2010, the Russian heat wave of 2010 and the flooding in Central Europe in 2010. Further extreme events affecting Europe and Russia are extreme air pollution, strong marine storms and wind waves and fast permafrost thawing. In this project, we shall investigate if these extremes are already affected by and in which way they will change in the future in response to global warming. Third, we shall assess the representation of extreme events in climate models, in particular as a function of model resolution, and on regional scales. Fourth, we shall develop future scenarios of extreme events in Europe and Russia including the associated uncertainties. To address these questions, we shall carry out case study simulations, sensitivity integrations and future projections with global and very high-resolution regional climate models in different forcing and coupling settings. These experiments and additional millennial-long control runs will be validated against observational data by means of modern statistical methods, in particular extreme value theory, vector-generalised regression models and cyclone tracking algorithms. The regional climate model projections will be bias-corrected with a special focus on correcting the magnitudes of extreme events. The project will extend the existing collaboration between the participating institutes on largescale climate phenomena towards extreme events on a regional scale. By bringing together expertise in regional climate, global climate as well as statistical modelling and data analysis, a unique research team will be created capable to address a wide range of scientific questions regarding extreme events under climate change. The project will lead to a direct knowledge transfer from the IFM-GEOMAR to the Russian teams in global climate modelling and extreme value theory, and vice versa in regional climate modelling. The anticipated results will improve the understanding of the mechanisms underlying extreme events and their variability and can be used to better predict potential future events. The improved predictability on decadal to multi-decadal time scales and the provision of biascorrected scenarios of future climate extremes and their associated uncertainties will help end users and stake holders to implement adaptation measures to changes in the statistics of extreme events, and will help policy makers to assess the required degree of climate change mitigation. (abridged text)
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