Das Vorhaben bereitet die nächste Klimarisikoanalyse für Deutschland vor. Es soll ein schlanker Ansatz gewählt werden, beispielsweise soll sich die quantitative Untersuchung von Klimawirkungen auf Klimadaten konzentrieren und die fachlichen Analysen größtenteils literaturbasiert erfolgen. Nach ISO 14091 soll die Risikoanalyse in 3 Schritten durchgeführt werden: 1. Vorbereitung, 2. Durchführung, 3. Kommunikation. Neue Forschungsaspekte umfassen unter Schritt 1 'Vorbereitung' die Weiterentwicklung der Methodik durch die Reduktion auf ein wesentliches Minimum, die verstärkte Verschneidung mit dem Monitoringbericht, sowie sozioökonomische Szenarien als Narrative mit Fokussierung auf ausgewählte Zukunftsthemen und -trends. Im Hinblick auf Schritt 2 'Durchführung' sollen die Bewertung der Klimarisiken und die Ableitung der Handlungsbedarfe die neuen Anpassungsziele berücksichtigen, in der integrierten Auswertung sollen die Kaskadeneffekte auch im Hinblick auf vulnerable Gruppen und Systeme untersucht werden, und die Anpassungskapazitätsbewertung sollen mit vorhandenen ex-ante Maßnahmenbewertung enger verschnitten und auf Lücken und Bedarfe ausgerichtet werden. Im 2. Schritt 'Kommunikation' stehen zielgruppenspezifische Kommunikationsprodukte im Vordergrund. Um die dynamische wissenschaftliche Entwicklung besser abzubilden, wird die KRA in 2 Slots ausgeschrieben werden: Teil I: 2023-2025 Vorbereitung KRA 2028; Teil II: 2024-2028 Durchführung und Kommunikation KRA 2028.
Dieser Web Map Service (WMS), Risikogebiete Hochwasserrisikomanagement, stellt flächenhaft die Risikogebiete in Gefahren- und Risikokarten dar. Zur genaueren Beschreibung der Daten und Datenverantwortung nutzen Sie bitte den Verweis zur Datensatzbeschreibung.
Dieser Web Feature Service (WFS), Risikogebiete Hochwasserrisikomanagement, stellt flächenhaft die Risikogebiete in Gefahren- und Risikokarten zum Downloaden bereit. Zur genaueren Beschreibung der Daten und Datenverantwortung nutzen Sie bitte den Verweis zur Datensatzbeschreibung.
The Risk Index Outcome (RIO) is a critical component of the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS) developed by the International Maritime Organization (IMO, 2016). RIO evaluates the operational risks for ships navigating in ice-infested waters by evaluating ice conditions and offers a quantifiable measure of risk that aids in decision-making for safe navigation in polar regions based on ship ice class, sea ice type/stage of development (SOD) and sea ice concentration (SIC). The DMI-led Automated Sea Ice Products (DMI-ASIP; Wulf et al., 2024, dataset) provides daily maps of SOD and SIC based on Sentinel-1 SAR imagery, AMSR-2 Passive Microwave and Ice Charts from the Greenland and Canadian Ice Services, combined with novel AI retrieval and processing techniques. In the framework of EU funded Arctic PASSION project, we produced 10 years of satellite observation based weekly RIO maps referred as the Arctic PASSION-RIO (AP-RIO) by leveraging DMI-ASIP datasets. The AP-RIO dataset will provide weekly risk assessment maps for the given ship classes and will support the establishment of a 10 year climatology thereby enabling the assessment of RIO variability in the years covered by the input DMI-ASIP products. The AP-RIO dataset will enhance the safety and efficiency of maritime operations in the polar seas, providing a robust reference for evaluating normal and extreme ice conditions. AP-RIO is produced in the framework of the Arctic PASSION project (European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 101003472) and supported by the DMI-ASIP development team. Algorithm and Processing Scheme: SIC and SOD from ASIP are processed (by taking the mean and mode respectively) into a weekly field based on the daily files for that week. This is done for the time period of 3 Oct. 2014 - 3 Oct. 2024. The weekly SOD is used to find the Risk Value (RV) by looking at the lookup table (Dybkjær et al. 2025a). Risk Index Outcome (RIO) values are computed for each pixel in the field based on the RIO formula (RIO = SIC x RV) using the SIC from ASIP and the found RV. The meaning of the computed RIO values can be interpreted using the table in (Dybkjær et al. 2025b). The RIO field is finally saved to weekly NetCDF files.
Urease and nitrification inhibitors are used in agriculture to reduce ammonia and nitrous oxide emissions and the leaching of nitrate. However, the risks of inhibitors for human health and the environment have not yet been sufficiently investigated. Also, the specific effectiveness of different urease and nitrification inhibitors has not yet been sufficiently clarified. These uncertainties have so far only been partially considered in legal regulations. This paper summarizes the current state of knowledge on the effects of the substances and examines the extent to which the legal regulations take the risks into account. Finally, recommendations are made as to how legal regulations should be changed so that the inhibitors contribute to achieving environmental and climate goals. Veröffentlicht in Texte | 77/2025.
Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) can neither conserve the current nor restore the pre-industrial climate. It would create an unpredictable new global climate with significant regional impacts. This brochure explains the risks of SRM for food security, justice and actual climate action. It explains the various SRM approaches and how they are supposed to work. It also describes the state of regulation and formulates conditions for responsible governance, including a non-use agreement. Veröffentlicht in Broschüren.
Aims: Floods in small and medium-sized river catchments have often been a focus of attention in the past. In contrast to large rivers like the Rhine, the Elbe or the Danube, discharge can increase very rapidly in such catchments; we are thus confronted with a high damage potential combined with almost no time for advance warning. Since the heavy precipitation events causing such floods are often spatially very limited, they are difficult to forecast; long-term provision is therefore an important task, which makes it necessary to identify vulnerable regions and to develop prevention measures. For that purpose, one needs to know how the frequency and the intensity of floods will develop in the future, especially in the near future, i.e. the next few decades. Besides providing such prognoses, an important goal of this project was also to quantify their uncertainty. Method: These questions were studied by a team of meteorologists and hydrologists from KIT and GFZ. They simulated the natural chain 'large-scale weather - regional precipitation - catchment discharge' by a model chain 'global climate model (GCM) - regional climate model (RCM) - hydrological model (HM)'. As a novel feature, we performed so-called ensemble simulations in order to estimate the range of possible results, i.e. the uncertainty: we used two GCMs with different realizations, two RCMs and three HMs. The ensemble method, which is quite standard in physics, engineering and recently also in weather forecasting has hitherto rarely been used in regional climate modeling due to the very high computational demands. In our study, the demand was even higher due to the high spatial resolution (7 km by 7 km) we used; presently, regional studies use considerably larger grid boxes of about 100 km2. However, our study shows that a high resolution is necessary for a realistic simulation of the small-scale rainfall patterns and intensities. This combination of high resolution and an ensemble using results from global, regional and hydrological models is unique. Results: By way of example, we considered the low-mountain range rivers Mulde and Ruhr and the more alpine Ammer river in this study, all of which had severe flood events in the past. Our study confirms that heavy precipitation events will occur more frequently in the future. Does this also entail an increased flood risk? Our results indicate that in any case, the risk will not decrease. However, each catchment reacts differently, and different models may produce different precipitation and runoff regimes, emphasizing the need of ensemble studies. A statistically significant increase of floods is expected for the river Ruhr in winter and in summer. For the river Mulde, we observe a slight increase of floods during summer and autumn, and for the river Ammer a slight decrease in summer and a slight increase in winter.
Täglich sammeln wir Staub - wenn wir uns in einem Raum aufhalten, wenn wir durch eine Wiese oder über eine Straße gehen oder auch in einem Buch lesen - und täglich versuchen wir, ihn wieder loszuwerden. Unser Drang nach Reinheit hat eine ganze Industrie entstehen lassen, die von Staubsaugern bis zu High-Tech-Filtern alle Arten von kleinen und größeren Hilfsmitteln anbietet. Für die Wissenschaft ist Staub kein Dreck. Was für den Alltagsmenschen ein Symbol der Zerstörung ist, birgt für den Forscher viele wichtige Informationen. Denn aus einer Analyse des Staubes lässt sich vieles über unsere gegenwärtige und sogar über vergangene Umwelten lernen. Zum anderen erobert die Wissenschaft mit Mikro- und Nanotechnologien die Welt des Winzigen. Denn das sehr Kleine eröffnet besondere technische Chancen. Auch diese aktuellen Entwicklungen und die damit verbundenen Chancen und Risiken soll die Ausstellung aufzeigen. Die Ausstellung wurde von November 2004 bis Oktober 2005 im Wissenschaftszentrum Umwelt der Universität Augsburg gezeigt werden. Sie umfasst 30-40 Exponate, darunter mehrere Hands-on-Exponate. Leihgeber für spezielle Objekte sind das Bundeskriminalamt, das Landesamt für Umweltschutz in Bayern, das Umweltbundesamt, der Deutsche Wetterdienst und weitere Institutionen. Ein ausstellungsbegleitendes Buch wird beim Oekom Verlag in München erscheinen. Im Anschluss an die Augsburger Station ging die Ausstellung auf Wanderschaft und wurde inzwischen an sechs weiteren Stationen gezeigt. Die Zahl der Besucher liegt bereits weit über 100.000.
The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) suffers from a price level for certificates that went down to almost zero in a period less than a year. Additionally, no short-term price recovery is expected which could incentivise new projects. A risk is that market participants leave the market and the valuable CDM knowledge base on GHG mitigation and quantification will be lost. The CDM Market Support Study analyses the actual price vulnerability of projects and identifies various financing and project type opportunities for project developers and for (institutional public) investors who intent to support the CDM project continuation and the further development of the CDM framework. The study also shows how the current regulatory framework of the CDM can be maintained by transferring it to future mechanisms. This could be a chance to develop the CDM from a pure market-based instrument towards an integrated part within future market-based and also policy-based instruments. The CDM can provide useful components to currently discussed or tested instruments such as the NMM (New Market Mechanism), the FVA (Framework for Varios Approaches), NAMAs (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions) or results-based financing approaches. The study was financed by the German KfW-managed PoA Support Centre . The aim of the PoA-Support-Centre Germany is to support the development of Programmes of Activities (PoAs) under CDM and JI (Joint Implementation) worldwide.
As global leaders head to the G20 summit to consider solutions to the current global economic crisis, a new report prepared by Ecofys and Germanwatch for WWF and E3G reveals that many of the economic recovery packages being discussed are a missed opportunity in terms of stimulating a green recovery, and actually run the risk of locking the world into a high-carbon future. The report provides the most detailed and comprehensive analysis to date of the proposed 'stimulus' packages of five key countries - France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the US - as well as the package agreed by the European Union as a whole.
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