Das Projekt "European programme on prediction of climate variations on seasonal and interannual timescales" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie durchgeführt. Objective: To quantify the predictability of the atmosphere on seasonal timescales over Europe and regions of the world where there may be European interests, and to test the skill of coupled models of the oceans, atmosphere and land surface, including data assimilation to provide initial conditions. General Information: The first objective is being pursued through a series of coordinated experiments using four European atmosphere models. These models are being run in ensemble mode over seasonal timescales using observed sea surface temperature and initial conditions from the ECMWF reanalysis period 1979-1994. This coordinated experimentation was underway at the beginning of the project, and is likely to be completed by the end of the first year. Diagnosis of results will take another year, and involves additional participants in the project. Complex numerical coupled models and ocean data assimilation techniques are being developed by five participants of the projects, and the ability to run hind cast experimentation will be possible by the second year of the project. Testing the skill of the numerical coupled model seasonal forecasts will begin in the second year of the project, through coordinated experimentation. Special attention will be given to the period 1990 onwards, since the ocean (especially the El Niqo region), was relatively well observed in that period. The skill of dynamically based seasonal forecasts will be compared with that obtainable by empirical prediction techniques. In addition the possibility of using these techniques (e.g. based on singular value decomposition) to correct, a posteriori, dynamical model biases will be investigated. Finally, close coordination between PROVOST and the monsoon project SHIVA will take place throughout the term of the project. As well as undertaking joint numerical experimentation, the SHIVA and PROVOST project will meet jointly each year. Prime Contractor: European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); Reading; United Kingdom.
Das Projekt "Studien zu Hydrologie, Einfluss und Variabilitaet des asiatischen Sommermonsuns" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie durchgeführt. Objective: To investigate the processes involved in the evolution of the Asian Summer Monsoon and in its intraseasonal and interannual variability, and thereby to improve their simulation in forecast and climate models. An over-riding theme is the goal of understanding the processes involved in seasonal and climate predictability. General Information: Over half the world's population live within the influence of the Asian Summer Monsoon where the reliable return of the summer rains is essential for life. Therefore the human implications of improved prediction for sub-seasonal, seasonal and climate timescales are enormous. The influence of the monsoon extends to many regions remote from SE-Asia; its importance in the global circulation and climate predictability has been recognised in the new CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) programme of the WCRP. The proposed project is closely allied with the aims of CLIVAR-GOALS and will contribute to numerical experimentation within Europe in support of that programme. The project research involves common diagnosis of multi-year integrations and coordinated, idealised experiments using, primarily, atmospheric GCMs, but extending to coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs during the later stages of the project. The idealised experimentation is designed to investigate possible mechanisms for monsoon variability. The processes which determine the behaviour of the Asian Summer Monsoon are varied and interactive. The dependence on horizontal resolution, on the parameterisation of physical processes, and on anomalies in boundary forcing, particularly sea surface temperatures, will be investigated. In addition, several supporting programmes have been identified which cover observational studies for model validation, ensemble techniques and palaeoclimate studies. The palaeoclimate studies will provide a broader parameter space within which to test physical parametrisations and potential mechanisms for monsoon variability. Close coordination exists between SHIVA and the seasonal prediction project, PROVOST, since a clear objective of SHIVA is to improve seasonal predictability for monsoon-affected countries. As well as undertaking joint numerical experimentation, the PROVOST and SHIVA projects will meet jointly each year. Prime Contractor: University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Horticulture and Agriculture Centre for Global Atmospheric Moelling; Reading; United Kingdom.