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Regionalisierung der Simulation anthropogener Klimaaenderungen

Das Projekt "Regionalisierung der Simulation anthropogener Klimaaenderungen" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie durchgeführt. Variable resolution atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) and high resolution limited area models, developed and tested in the Regionalization project, will be applied in time-slice regionalizations of coarser coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) control and scenario simulations. Three high resolution atmospheric limited area models (ALAMs) will be used to 'regionalize' new climate simulations from second generation AOGCMs. The lateral boundary fields, SSTs and sea-ice fields will be taken from outputs of three AOGCMs (at NCAR, MPIM and UKMO). 5-10 year time-slice ALAM simulations driven by output from present (control) and transiently increasing greenhouse gases (scenario) experiments will be made. Similar time-slice simulations will be made with an AGCM (METEO FRANCE's ARPEGE) using stretched coordinates with highest resolution over Europe. The SSTs and sea-ice fields will be taken from one of the above mentioned sets of AOGCM simulations (made with coarser homogeneous resolution). A special study will investigate whether ocean SST simulation (in casu the Atlantic SSTs off the Portuguese coast) can be improved using an ocean limited area model (OLAM). Very high resolution climate simulations will be made for specific regions in Europe (northern Europe and the Iberian peninsula) by driving very high resolution ALAMs with output from the high resolution ALAM simulations. For the greater Alpine area a statistical dynamic methodology will be used to give similar very high resolution simulations. The methodology combines the use of a mesoscale dynamical model with a statistical classification scheme for the large scale flow regime. Finally a purely statistical downscaling methodology will be used to simulate the local climate at a few Danish stations. This methodology will use statistical relations between 'observed' large scale flow patterns and local weather. The various regional and local climate simulations based on the AOGCM control simulations will be intercompared and evaluated against climatological data in order to estimate upper bounds for the accuracy of the corresponding simulated climate changes produced from the AOGCM scenario simulations.

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