Das Projekt "Flood risk in a changing climate (CEDIM)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung, Department Troposphärenforschung durchgeführt. Aims: Floods in small and medium-sized river catchments have often been a focus of attention in the past. In contrast to large rivers like the Rhine, the Elbe or the Danube, discharge can increase very rapidly in such catchments; we are thus confronted with a high damage potential combined with almost no time for advance warning. Since the heavy precipitation events causing such floods are often spatially very limited, they are difficult to forecast; long-term provision is therefore an important task, which makes it necessary to identify vulnerable regions and to develop prevention measures. For that purpose, one needs to know how the frequency and the intensity of floods will develop in the future, especially in the near future, i.e. the next few decades. Besides providing such prognoses, an important goal of this project was also to quantify their uncertainty. Method: These questions were studied by a team of meteorologists and hydrologists from KIT and GFZ. They simulated the natural chain 'large-scale weather - regional precipitation - catchment discharge' by a model chain 'global climate model (GCM) - regional climate model (RCM) - hydrological model (HM)'. As a novel feature, we performed so-called ensemble simulations in order to estimate the range of possible results, i.e. the uncertainty: we used two GCMs with different realizations, two RCMs and three HMs. The ensemble method, which is quite standard in physics, engineering and recently also in weather forecasting has hitherto rarely been used in regional climate modeling due to the very high computational demands. In our study, the demand was even higher due to the high spatial resolution (7 km by 7 km) we used; presently, regional studies use considerably larger grid boxes of about 100 km2. However, our study shows that a high resolution is necessary for a realistic simulation of the small-scale rainfall patterns and intensities. This combination of high resolution and an ensemble using results from global, regional and hydrological models is unique. Results: By way of example, we considered the low-mountain range rivers Mulde and Ruhr and the more alpine Ammer river in this study, all of which had severe flood events in the past. Our study confirms that heavy precipitation events will occur more frequently in the future. Does this also entail an increased flood risk? Our results indicate that in any case, the risk will not decrease. However, each catchment reacts differently, and different models may produce different precipitation and runoff regimes, emphasizing the need of ensemble studies. A statistically significant increase of floods is expected for the river Ruhr in winter and in summer. For the river Mulde, we observe a slight increase of floods during summer and autumn, and for the river Ammer a slight decrease in summer and a slight increase in winter.
Das Projekt "Forest management in the Earth system" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie durchgeführt. The majority of the worlds forests has undergone some form of management, such as clear-cut or thinning. This management has direct relevance for global climate: Studies estimate that forest management emissions add a third to those from deforestation, while enhanced productivity in managed forests increases the capacity of the terrestrial biosphere to act as a sink for carbon dioxide emissions. However, uncertainties in the assessment of these fluxes are large. Moreover, forests influence climate also by altering the energy and water balance of the land surface. In many regions of historical deforestation, such biogeophysical effects have substantially counteracted warming due to carbon dioxide emissions. However, the effect of management on biogeophysical effects is largely unknown beyond local case studies. While the effects of climate on forest productivity is well established in forestry models, the effects of forest management on climate is less understood. Closing this feedback cycle is crucial to understand the driving forces behind past climate changes to be able to predict future climate responses and thus the required effort to adapt to it or avert it. To investigate the role of forest management in the climate system I propose to integrate a forest management module into a comprehensive Earth system model. The resulting model will be able to simultaneously address both directions of the interactions between climate and the managed land surface. My proposed work includes model development and implementation for key forest management processes, determining the growth and stock of living biomass, soil carbon cycle, and biophysical land surface properties. With this unique tool I will be able to improve estimates of terrestrial carbon source and sink terms and to assess the susceptibility of past and future climate to combined carbon cycle and biophysical effects of forest management. Furthermore, representing feedbacks between forest management and climate in a global climate model could advance efforts to combat climate change. Changes in forest management are inevitable to adapt to future climate change. In this process, is it possible to identify win-win strategies for which local management changes do not only help adaptation, but at the same time mitigate global warming by presenting favorable effects on climate? The proposed work opens a range of long-term research paths, with the aim of strengthening the climate perspective in the economic considerations of forest management and helping to improve local decisionmaking with respect to adaptation and mitigation.
Das Projekt "Biopores in the subsoil: Formation, nutrient turnover and effects on crops with distinct rooting systems (BioFoNT)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Bonn, Institut für Organischen Landbau durchgeführt. Perennial fodder cropping potentially increases subsoil biopore density by formation of extensive root systems and temporary soil rest. We will quantify root length density, earthworm abundance and biopore size classes after Medicago sativa, Cichorium intybus and Festuca arundinacea grown for 1, 2 and 3 years respectively in the applied research unit's Central Field Trial (CeFiT) which is established and maintained by our working group. Shoot parameters including transpiration, gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence will frequently be recorded. Precrop effects on oilseed rape and cereals will be quantified with regard to crop yield, nutrient transfer and H2-release. The soil associated with biopores (i.e. the driloshpere) is generally rich in nutrients as compared to the bulk soil and is therefore supposed to be a potential hot spot for nutrient acquisition. However, contact areas between roots and the pore wall have been reported to be low. It is still unclear to which extent the nutrients present in the drilosphere are used and which potential relevance subsoil biopores may have for the nutrient supply of crops. We will use a flexible videoscope to determine the root-soil contact in biopores. Nitrogen input into the drilosphere by earthworms and potential re-uptake of nitrogen from the drilosphere by subsequent crops with different rooting systems (oilseed rape vs. cereals) will be quantified using 15N as a tracer.
Das Projekt "Populationsstrukturen der Finte (Alosa fallax) in der deutschen Nord- und Ostsee und ihren Zuflüssen" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Staatliches Museum für Naturkunde Stuttgart, Abteilung Zoologie durchgeführt.
Das Projekt "European Investment Bank - Water Management" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Jena-Optronik GmbH durchgeführt. BACKGROUND: The Kingdom of Jordan belongs to the ten water scarcest countries in the world, and climate change is likely to increase the frequency of future droughts. Jordan is considered among the 10 most water impoverished countries in the world, with per capita water availability estimated at 170 m per annum, compared to an average of 1,000 m per annum in other countries. Jordan Government has taken the strategic decision to develop a conveyor system including a 325 km pipe to pump 100 million cubic meters per year of potable water from Disi-Mudawwara close to the Saudi Border in the south, to the Greater Amman area in the north. The construction of the water pipeline has started end of 2009 and shall be finished in 2013. Later on, the pipeline could serve as a major part of a national water carrier in order to convey desalinated water from the Red Sea to the economically most important central region of the country. The conveyor project will not only significantly increase water supplies to the capital, but also provide for the re-allocation of current supplies to other governorates, and for the conservation of aquifers. In the context of the Disi project that is co-funded by EIB two Environmental and Social Management Plans have been prepared: one for the private project partners and one for the Jordan Government. The latter includes the Governments obligation to re-balance water allocations to irrigation and to gradually restore the protected wetlands of Azraq (Ramsar site) east of Amman that has been depleted due to over-abstraction by re-directing discharge of highland aquifers after the Disi pipeline becomes operational. The Water Strategy recognizes that groundwater extraction for irrigation is beyond acceptable limits. Since the source is finite and priority should be given to human consumption it proposes to tackle the demand for irrigation through tariff adjustments, improved irrigation technology and disincentive to water intensive crops. The Disi aquifer is currently used for irrigation by farms producing all kinds of fruits and vegetables on a large scale and exporting most of their products to the Saudi and European markets and it is almost a third of Jordan's total consumption. The licenses for that commercial irrigation were finished by 2011/12. Whilst the licenses will be not renewed the difficulty will be the enforcement and satellite based information become an important supporting tool for monitoring. OUTLOOK: The ESA funded project Water management had the objective to support the South-North conveyor project and the activities of EIB together with the MWI in Jordan to ensure the supply of water for the increasing demand. EO Information provides a baseline for land cover and elevation and support the monitoring of further stages. usw.
Das Projekt "Vegetation dynamics following forest stand destruction by snow avalange in the Berchtesgaden National Park" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Technische Universität München, Fachgebiet Geobotanik durchgeführt. On 18 Januar 1986 at the east-looking slope of the Kleiner Watzmann in the Berchtesgaden National Park a snow avalanche came down from an elevation of about 2.000 m to the Königssee near St. Bartholomae (610 m above see level). It destroyed 12 to 15 ha of old growth forests dominated by beech (Fagus sylvatica); about 2.000 m3 of wood were thrown down. The soil survace was not intensively effected by the snow avalange. Because the area is situated in the central protection zone of the national park no clearing procedure was done, and a free stand develeopment without any direct impact of man is allowed to take place. In 1989 permanent plots (3 transects, each starting in the surrounding forest and crossing to avalanche area) were established. Vegetation and stand structure records were carried out in 1989, 1994 and 1999. Vegetation development in the first place is characterised by (1) a re-establishment of the tree layer by the (beech) trees, which were bent to the ground but not killed by the avalanche, (2) by seedling and sapling establishment (especially Acer and Fraxinus, but not by pioneer trees) and (3) by continuing floristic composition of the ground vegetation (coverage increasing or decresing depending on the light conditions).
Das Projekt "Can the resistance and resilience of trees to drought be increased through thinning to adapt forests to climate change?" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Freiburg, Waldbau-Institut durchgeführt. Recent and predicted increases in extremely dry and hot summers emphasise the need for silvicultural approaches to increase the drought tolerance of existing forests in the short-term, before adaptation through species changes may be possible. We aim to investigate whether resistance during droughts, as well as the recovery following drought events (resilience), can be increased by allocating more growing space to individual trees through thinning. Thinning increases access of promoted trees to soil stored water, as long as this is available. However, these trees may also be disadvantaged through a higher transpirational surface, or the increased neighbourhood competition by ground vegetation. To assess whether trees with different growing space differ in drought tolerance, tree discs and cores from thinning experiments of Pinus sylvestris and Pseudotsuga menziesii stands will be used to examine transpirational stress and growth reduction during previous droughts as well as their subsequent recovery. Dendroecology and stable isotopes of carbon and oxygen in tree-rings will be used to quantify how assimilation rate and stomatal conductance were altered through thinning. The results will provide crucial information for the development of short-term silvicultural adaptation strategies to adapt forest ecosystems to climate change. In addition, this study will improve our understanding of the relationship between resistance and resilience of trees in relation to extreme stress events.
Das Projekt "Untersuchungen zur Oekologie und zum Verhalten von Rehen in Abhaengigkeit von Waldstruktur und Jagd" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Würzburg, Zoologisches Institut, Lehrstuhl für Zoologie III durchgeführt. Die Untersuchung wird im staatlichen Forstamt Ebrach durchgefuehrt. Dieses Forstamt arbeitet ueberwiegend nach den Grundsaetzen des naturnahen Waldbaus. Wegen des starken Aesungsdruckes auf die Naturverjuengungen wurde im Vegleich zu frueher sehr stark jagdlich in die Rehwildbestaende eingegriffen. Dabei ergaben sich seitens der Rehe zunehmend Veraenderungen in der Habitatbevorzugung. Mittels Parasitierungsuntersuchungen konnte eine zunehmende Populationsvermehrung in grossen Dickungskomplexen festgestellt werden, damit im Zusammenhang steht hier eine Verminderung der Kondition. Ebenso ergaben Faehrtenzaehlungen die zunehmende Bevorzugung schwer bejagbarer Habitate. Es soll nun mittels telemetrischer Methoden die Lebensraumgroesse, der Aktionsradius und die Aktivitet dieser 'Dickungsrehe' untersucht werden. Verhaltensuntersuchungen, insbesondere zum Feindvermeidungsverhalten der sozialen Gruppierungen, lassen einen starken Einfluss sowohl der Einzeljagd als auch der Gesellschaftsjagd auf Rehe erkennen.
Das Projekt "14C content of specific organic compounds in subsoils" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität zu Köln, Institut für Geologie und Mineralogie durchgeführt. Organic matter (OM) composition and dynamic in subsoils is thought to be significantly different from those in surface soils. This has been suggested by increasing apparent 14C ages of bulk soil OM with depth suggesting that the amount of fresh, more easily degradable components is declining. Compositional changes have been inferred from declining ä13C values and C/N ratios indicative for stronger OM transformation. Beside these bulk OM data more specific results on OM composition and preservation mechanisms are very limited but modelling studies and results from incubation experiments suggest the presence and mineralization of younger, 'reactive carbon pool in subsoils. Less refractory OM components may be protected against degradation by interaction with soil mineral particles and within aggregates as suggested by the very limited number of more specific OM analysis e.g., identification of organic compound in soil fractions. The objective of this project is to characterize the composition, transformation, stabilization and bioavailability of OM in subsurface horizons on the molecular level: 1) major sources and compositional changes with depth will be identified by analysis of different lipid compound classes in surface and subsoil horizons, 2) the origin and stabilization of 'reactive OM will be revealed by lipid distributions and 14C values of soil fractions and of selected plant-specific lipids, and 3) organic substrates metabolized by microbial communities in subsoils are identified by distributional and 14C analysis of microbial membrane lipids. Besides detailed analyses of three soil profiles at the subsoil observatory site (Grinderwald), information on regional variability will be gained from analyses of soil profiles at sites with different parent material.
Das Projekt "Improving the Livelihood of the Rural Population through the Production of Bushmeat in Ghana" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Hamburg, Arbeitsbereich für Weltforstwirtschaft und Institut für Weltforstwirtschaft des Friedrich-Löffler-Institut, Bundesforschungsinstitut für Tiergesundheit durchgeführt. Background: Ghanas transition forests, neighbouring savannahs and timber plantations in the Ashanti region face a constant degradation due to the increased occurrence of fires. In most cases the fires are deliberately set by rural people for hunting purposes. Main target is a cane rat, here called grasscutter (Thryonomys swinderianus), whose bushmeat is highly esteemed throughout the country. The animal is a wild herbivorous rodent of subhumid areas in Africa south of the Sahara. The grasscutter meat is an important source of animal protein. Existing high-value timber plantations (mainly Teak, Tectona grandis) are affected by fires for hunting purposes. Thus resulting in growth reduction, loss of biomass or even complete destruction of the forest stands. It became obvious that solutions had to be sought for the reduction of the fire risk. Objectives: Since 2004 the Institute for World Forestry of the Federal Research Centre for Forestry and Forest Products, Hamburg, Germany is cooperating with a Ghanaian timber plantation company (DuPaul Wood Treatment Ltd.) the German Foundation for Forest Conservation in Africa (Stiftung Walderhaltung in Afrika) and the Center for International Migration with the purpose to improve the livelihood of the rural population in the surroundings of the forest plantation sites and simultaneously to safeguard and improve the timber plantations. The introduction of grasscutter rearing systems to local farmers accompanied by permanent agricultural and agroforestry practices appeared to be a promising approach for the prevention of fires in the susceptible areas. Additionally a functioning grasscutter breeding system could contribute to the improvement of food security, development of income sources and the alleviation of poverty. The following measures are implemented: - Identification of farmers interested in grasscutter captive breeding, - Implementation of training courses for farmers on grasscutter rearing, - Delivery of breeding animals, - Supervision of rearing conditions by project staff, - Development of a local extension service for monitoring activities, - Evaluation of structures for grasscutter meat marketing. Results: After identification of key persons for animal rearing training courses were successfully passed and animals were delivered subsequently. Further investigations will evaluate the effects of the grasscutter rearing in the project region. This will be assessed through the - Acceptance of grasscutter rearing by farmers, - Success of the animal caging, - Reproduction rate, - Meat quality, - Marketing success of meat, - Reduction of fire in the vicinity of the timber plantations, - Improvement of peoples livelihood.