Das Projekt "Flood risk in a changing climate (CEDIM)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung, Department Troposphärenforschung durchgeführt. Aims: Floods in small and medium-sized river catchments have often been a focus of attention in the past. In contrast to large rivers like the Rhine, the Elbe or the Danube, discharge can increase very rapidly in such catchments; we are thus confronted with a high damage potential combined with almost no time for advance warning. Since the heavy precipitation events causing such floods are often spatially very limited, they are difficult to forecast; long-term provision is therefore an important task, which makes it necessary to identify vulnerable regions and to develop prevention measures. For that purpose, one needs to know how the frequency and the intensity of floods will develop in the future, especially in the near future, i.e. the next few decades. Besides providing such prognoses, an important goal of this project was also to quantify their uncertainty. Method: These questions were studied by a team of meteorologists and hydrologists from KIT and GFZ. They simulated the natural chain 'large-scale weather - regional precipitation - catchment discharge' by a model chain 'global climate model (GCM) - regional climate model (RCM) - hydrological model (HM)'. As a novel feature, we performed so-called ensemble simulations in order to estimate the range of possible results, i.e. the uncertainty: we used two GCMs with different realizations, two RCMs and three HMs. The ensemble method, which is quite standard in physics, engineering and recently also in weather forecasting has hitherto rarely been used in regional climate modeling due to the very high computational demands. In our study, the demand was even higher due to the high spatial resolution (7 km by 7 km) we used; presently, regional studies use considerably larger grid boxes of about 100 km2. However, our study shows that a high resolution is necessary for a realistic simulation of the small-scale rainfall patterns and intensities. This combination of high resolution and an ensemble using results from global, regional and hydrological models is unique. Results: By way of example, we considered the low-mountain range rivers Mulde and Ruhr and the more alpine Ammer river in this study, all of which had severe flood events in the past. Our study confirms that heavy precipitation events will occur more frequently in the future. Does this also entail an increased flood risk? Our results indicate that in any case, the risk will not decrease. However, each catchment reacts differently, and different models may produce different precipitation and runoff regimes, emphasizing the need of ensemble studies. A statistically significant increase of floods is expected for the river Ruhr in winter and in summer. For the river Mulde, we observe a slight increase of floods during summer and autumn, and for the river Ammer a slight decrease in summer and a slight increase in winter.
Das Projekt "F 2.2: Risk management of farm households in Northern Vietnam" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Hohenheim, Institut für Agrar- und Sozialökonomie in den Tropen und Subtropen durchgeführt. Sub-project F2 Rural financial services and sustainable rural development in Northern Vietnam assessed in the 1st phase (July 2000 - June 2003) of the Uplands Program (SFB 564) the conditions of effective financial market functioning in rural Vietnam serving rural economic development with particular emphasis on sustainable agricultural production systems. The sub-project F2-1 analysed the factors that determine access to financial services, particularly credit and savings services, by farm households. The main results of the 1st phase of F2 were threefold. First, the so-called Conjoint Analysis showed that poor rural households are capable and willing to save. Second, the study of the secondary and primary data (118 households in Bac Kan province and 142 households in Son La province) indicated that the two state-owned rural development banks, the Vietnam Bank for the Poor (VBP) and the Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (VBARD) together have already an enormous outreach as it concerns the supply of microcredit. The two banks reach 58Prozent of all rural households in Vietnam. Nevertheless, the microcredit is heavily restricted to specific uses, among the uses being the purchase of livestock, one of the most popular presently. Third, participatory workshops with the farm households revealed that the debtors perceive their livelihood as severely threatened by the risk of failing debt-financed investments and other individual risks. As a consequence to the manifold risks that a rural household is exposed to, the households have adopted risk coping strategies to smooth consumption, nevertheless, adaptive strategies to stabilize income are lacking. This can result in coping strategies focusing on the exploitation of natural resources and human capital resulting in unsustainable livelihoods. Based on these results, the consequent conclusion is that more research is needed regarding the third corner-stone of rural finance in developing countries, which is microinsurance. Acquiring microinsurance counts to the adaptive strategies of vulnerable households. In phase 2 (July 2003 - June 2006) of the Uplands Program, sub-project F2 will therefore concentrate its research on livelihood clusters of vulnerable rural households, and their adaptive and coping strategies regarding risks. While adaptive strategies are ex-ante strategies and aim at secure income even in times of crises, coping strategies are a reaction to acute risks and are employed ex-post. Informal social networks and semi-formal microinsurance schemes count to the former strategies and either keep vulnerability levels constant or even reduce them. The latter strategies try to smooth consumption, nevertheless, often at the expense of the future livelihood, thereby increasing vulnerability. (abridged text)
Das Projekt "Turn Down the Heat Phase 2: Science-Based Regional Impacts Case Studies & Global Hotspots" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung e.V. durchgeführt. The report 'Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C World Must be Avoided' released by the World Bank in Nov. 2012 suggests time may be running out to temper the increasing risks of climate change. This (Phase 1) report provided a snapshot of recent scientific literature and new analyses of likely impacts and risks that would be associated with a 4°C warming within this century and confirms that 4°C scenarios are potentially devastating to all nations, but particularly the poorest. In Phase 2 the World Bank seeks to develop a knowledge product (KP) that represents a continuation of the Phase 1 report, focusing specifically in greater spatial detail on the risk factors identified in that report. The objective of the knowledge product (KP) is to get a science-based understanding of the nature and magnitude of development impacts, by examining physical and biophysical climate change impacts at the regional scale. The KP examines 3 regional case studies and provides an analysis of global hotspots across a range of emissions scenarios.
Das Projekt "Teilprojekte C-1, C-5 und C-6A" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Bundesinstitut für Risikobewertung durchgeführt. ZielePathogene Vibrionen in der marinen Umwelt sind potentielle, neu aufkommende Zoonoseerreger. Die Bewertung des Risikos für die Bevölkerung erfordert: - Erfassung des Vorkommens von pathogenen nicht-Cholera-Vibrionen in der Umwelt, in Handelsware und bei menschlichen Erkrankungen durch Sammlung von Daten aus Erkrankungen. -Aufbau einer Stammsammlung sowie Identifizierung und funktionelle Charakterisierung von Virulenzfaktoren. - Ermittlung von Parametern, die das Auftreten, die Vermehrung und Übertragung von pathogenen Vibrionen in der Umwelt in Bezug zu Klimaprozessen fördern. - Ermittlung von Faktoren in der Lebensmittelkette, die die Belastung und Vermehrung von pathogenen Vibrionen in Lebensmitteln fördern. - Identifizierung von Markern (Genen oder Proteinen), die eine schnelle Detektion von pathogenen Vibrionen im klinischen Bereich, in der Lebensmittelproduktion und in der Umwelt ermöglichen.HintergründeDie Zahl der Infektionen mit pathogenen Vibrionen hat weltweit in den letzten Jahren zuge-nommen. Vibrionen sind Gram-negative Bakterien, die in Meeresgewässern und Flussmündungen weit verbreitet sind. Sie stellen eine der Hauptursachen von bakteriellen Durchfallerkrankungen dar, die durch den Verzehr von kontaminierten Meeresfrüchten und Fischprodukten verursacht werden. Die Zunahme von Vibrionen in marinen Organismen wird mit steigenden Wassertemperaturen aufgrund der globalen Erwärmung in Zusammenhang gebracht. Da gleichzeitig der globale Handel mit Fischprodukten und Meeresfrüchten wächst, ist ein Anstieg von Vibriosen bei Menschen zu erwarten. Die Entstehung neuer hochpathogener Klone von Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Südostasien und deren weltweite Verbreitung unterstreichen die Notwendigkeit der Forschung zu Vibriosen als 'emerging disease'. Da Vibrionen mesophile Bakterien sind, ist auch ihre Zunahme in Badegewässern in Perioden mit sehr warmem Wetter beobachtet worden, was die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Wundinfektionen durch Meerwasser-Kontakt erhöht.Das Forschungsnetzwerk wird durch eine Zusammenarbeit mit Wissenschaftlern aus asiatischen und südamerikanischen Ländern mit hoher Inzidenz von Vibrio-Infektionen ergänzt. Das BfR ist verantwortlich für die internationale Zusammenarbeit im TP C-1 und übernimmt im TP C-5 den Aufbau einer zentralen Stammsammlung, die Entwicklung von MALDI-TOF-basierten Nachweisverfahren und die Untersuchung der Toxinbildung. Im TP C-6 wird eine quantitative Erhebung des Pathogenitätspotentials gegenüber marinen Vektororganismen und dem menschlichen Wirt durchgeführt.
Das Projekt "Sanierung des Nehmser Sees" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Allianz Umweltstiftung durchgeführt. Am Rande des Naturparks Holsteinische Schweiz im Landkreis Bad Segeberg liegt der Nehmser See, der auf Grund seiner geringen Tiefe zum Verlanden neigt. Kommen dann noch - wie in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten - Nährstoffeinträge aus landwirtschaftlichen Flächen hinzu, entsteht eine erbsengrüne, undurchsichtige Algenbrühe, die zu Fäulnisprozessen sowie Fischsterben führt und die Verlandung noch rascher voranschreiten lässt. Da der See keinen natürlichen Ablauf hat, kann er nicht abgelassen und die bis zu sieben Meter dicke Schlammschicht am Seegrund nicht ausgebaggert werden. Von 1999 bis 2003 unterstützte die Allianz Umweltstiftung ein Projekt zur Rettung des Nehmser Sees. Am Beginn stand eine umfassende ökologische Analyse, bei der sich der hohe Fischbestand als Hauptproblem herauskristallisierte. Daraufhin wurde ein maßgeschneidertes Sanierungskonzept entwickelt und umgesetzt. Rettungs-Maßnahmen: Gezielte Kalkzugabe zur Phosphatbindung, Einbringen von Wasserpflanzen, Reduzierung und Regulierung des Fischbestands, Vermehrung der algenfressenden Wasserflöhe, Extensivierung der umliegenden Flächen und Bau von Absetzbecken an den Zuläufen des Sees. Als Ergebnis dieser Maßnahmen konnte der Öffentlichkeit im September 2003 ein sanierter Nemser See übergeben werden. Die Sichttiefe hat sich auf teilweise bis zu drei Meter erhöht, es finden sich zahlreiche Wasserpflanzen und auch die Wasserqualität hat sich deutlich verbessert. Da die Sanierung des Nehmser Sees als Pilotprojekt angelegt war sind die Ergebnisse auch auf andere Seen in Schleswig-Holstein und darüber hinaus übertragbar.
Das Projekt "A6: Response of element cycles in a tropical mountain rain forest to environmental and land-use change" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Institut für Geographie und Geoökologie durchgeführt. The north Andean forest is affected by climate-driven acid and base depositions and will experience increasing N input in the future. Based on our knowledge of element cycling in the Reserva Biologica San Francisco, we aim at developing scenarios of possible responses of the study forest to expected environmental change. We will evaluate the available data series and complete the parameterization of a catchment-based hydrologic model (CATFLOW). We will assume the joint change scenarios of the Research Unit. The developed scenarios will be validated by continuing the Long-term Ecosystem Study and the Nutrient Management Experiment (NUMEX). The Long-term Ecosystem Study was established in 1998. For greater than 11 years, a unique data set of weekly records of all major water and element fluxes has been collected. In the interdisciplinary NUMEX experiment, established in 2007, we continuously add N, P, N+P, and Ca twice per year to native forest in a block design at ca. 2000 m a.s.l. to explore the forest response to low-level nutrient input. For the next phase, a joint 15N pulse chasing experiment will be conducted to further explore the fate of added N. We contribute by setting up a complete flux budget of the applied isotope label.
Das Projekt "B 2.3: Transport of agrochemicals in a watershed in Northern Thailand - Phase 3" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Hohenheim, Institut für Bodenkunde und Standortslehre, Fachgebiet Biogeophysik durchgeführt. Land use changes of the last decades in the mountainous regions of Northern Thailand have been accompanied by an increased input of agrochemicals, which might be transferred to rivers by surface and/or subsurface flow. Where the river water is used for household consumption, irrigation and other purposes, agrochemical losses pose a serious risk to the environment and food safety. In the first and the second phase, subproject B2 collected data on and gained knowledge of the vertical and lateral transport processes that govern the environmental fate of selected agrochemicals at the plot and the hillslope scale (Ciglasch et al., 2005; Kahl et al., 2006). In the third phase, B2.3 will turn from the hillslope to the watershed scale. For simulation of water flow and pesticide transport the SWAT model (Neitsch et al., 2002b) will be adapted and used. The study area will be the Mae Sa watershed (138 km2), which includes the Mae Sa Noi subcatchment where B2 carried out detailed investigations during the last two phases. The specific focus of the subproject will be the parameterization and calibration of the SWAT model and its integration into the model network of the SFB. The SFB database has been established and can be used for model parameterization. In addition, high-quality geo-data are available from the Geoinformatic and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA) in Chiang Mai. For model calibration, discharge measurements are available for the Mae Sa Noi subcatchment (12 km2) and for the neighboring Mae Nai subcatchment (18 km2). To collect data on the Mae Sa watershed discharge, at the very beginning of the third phase gauging stations will be established in a midstream position and at the outlet of the watershed. Pesticide fluxes will be measured at each gauging station as well as in the Mae Sa Noi subcatchment, where B2.2 has operated two flumes equipped with automatic discharge-proportional water samplers since 2004. Rainfall distribution and intensity will be monitored with a net of automatic rain gauges. Hydrograph separation will be performed using soil and river temperatures (Kobayashi et al., 1999). Within the watershed temperature loggers will be installed at different soil depths to measure the temperature of the different discharge components. Already at the beginning of the second year of the third phase we will start to couple the SWAT model with land use and farm household models of the SFB and to use the model to assess the effect of land use and land management changes on the loss of pesticides to surface waters.
Das Projekt "NJESD New Jobs through ESD competences" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Lüneburg, Institut für integrative Studien durchgeführt. Objective of the project: NJ ESD is a tri-national project targeting on regional development towards sustainable development in the province of Grosseto, Tuskany/ltaly. The objective is to increase and enhance local competencies and resources in order to advance the economic, social, ecologic and cultural development of this region, using the existing potential in a large and comprising transformation process. The Institute for integrative Studies is providing its experience and competencies to this project by bringing in its scientific advice. Project description: The project is working on different levels and operates with three target groups: partners from the public administration, from education and business. In the course of the project several workshops and education initiatives will take place, organized by a local ESD institution - la Finoria. In the course of this project the Institute for integrative Studies will provide its good-practice experiences and support the project with its theoretical and didactical competencies. The initial meeting took of all partners place in March 2011 in Grosseto. Two other competence building meetings until 2011 are intended.
Das Projekt "Sub project: Viral infections as controlling factor of the deep biosphere" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, Institut für Chemie und Biologie des Meeres durchgeführt. Viruses might be the main 'predators' in the deep biosphere and possibly have a major impact on indigenous microorganisms in providing labile organic compounds for this extremly nutrient depleted habitat. While direct counting of viruses along depth profiles of various ODP sites indicated a general decrease with depth, we could show that the ratio of viruses vs. cells increased. Prophages were induced from six out of thirteen representative deep-biosphere bacteria of our ODP Leg 201 culture collection, exhibiting different morphotypes of sypho- and myoviruses. Five of them were subjected to whole genome sequencing. This sequence information will be used to design specific primers for a molecular detection and quantification of these phages in the deep biosphere. Especially the number and distribution of phages that infect Rhizobium radiobacter, which is highly abundant in subsurface sediments, will be examined. We will further focus on the following questions: How important is the viral shunt in providing essential nutrients for deep biosphere populations? How is the physiological state of indigenous microorganisms related to viral infections?
Das Projekt "Herbicide resistance in loose silky bent grass (Apera spica-venti)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Hohenheim, Institut für Phytomedizin, Fachgebiet Herbologie durchgeführt. Loose silky bent grass (Apera spica-venti) is a competitive grass weed in winter annual cereals. Infestation rates increased in Europe due to an increasing percentage of winter cereals in the rotations and to an expansion of reduced tillage practices. Farmers in Europe reported about reduced efficacy of chemical weed control (mostly ALS inhibitors) against Apera spica-venti and assume that herbicide resistant populations have been selected. The main goals of the project are the screening of suspected herbicide-resistant silky bent grass populations in the greenhouse (e.g. whole-plant bioassays and dose-response assays) as well as the investigation on the resistance mechanisms at molecular and physiological level.