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A European Network for Atmospheric Hydrogen observations and studies (EUROHYDROS)

We propose to initialise a European Network for observations of molecular Hydrogen and to put in place a new and consistent calibration scale for molecular Hydrogen. The observational network will have 12 continuous measurements sites in Europe, 7 flask sampling sites in Europe and 6 global flask sampling sites. Concerning the European sites, a range of observation from clean air stations for measurements of atmospheric background to moderately polluted (e.g. urban outflow) and urban (i.e. polluted) sites was chosen. This will enable to improve the understanding of hydrogen in the global background atmosphere and of the impact of European emissions on the present day atmosphere, e.g. using local modelling techniques and radon flux calculations. We further propose to perform budget studies of molecular hydrogen (on a global and regional scale) and to study sinks and sources. Especially the important soil sink will be studied (mechanistically and experimentally). A first systematic study of isotopic composition of molecular hydrogen in the atmosphere is proposed, using observations from global and European flask sampling sites and global models, which hydrogen isotope fractionation processes will be incorporated. Global and regional models will be used to investigate the budget of atmospheric hydrogen, by comparing mixing ratios and isotope ratios between model and observations and by varying underlying model emission patterns. The Proposal further includes some studies to assess the impact of atmospheric hydrogen on the present day atmosphere, i.e. the influence on the oxidation capacity of the troposphere, the lifetimes of greenhouse gases like CH4 and on the stratospheric budgets of water vapour and ozone. Some exploratory studies will be carried out to investigate these impacts under changed atmospheric hydrogen levels, associated with the use of hydrogen as a carrier of economy.

Integrated non-CO2 Greenhouse gas Observing System (INGOS)

InGOS will support and integrate the observing capacity of Europe for non-CO2 greenhouse gases (NCGHG: CH4, N2O, SF6, H2 and halocarbons). The emissions of these gases are very uncertain and it is unknown how future climate change will feedback into the land use coupled emissions of CH4 and N2O. The NCGHG atmospheric abundances will increase further in the future and the emissions of these gases are an attractive target for climate change mitigation policies. InGOS aims to improve the existing European observation system so that this will provide us insight into the concentration levels and European and extra-European emissions of the NCGHGs. The data from the network will enable to better constrain the emissions of NCGHGs within the EU and show whether emission reduction policies are effective. The data from the network is designed to allow to detect the spatial and temporal distribution (hotspots) of the sources and to detect changes in emissions due to mitigation and feedbacks with climate change. To strengthen the European observation system, the project has several objectives: - Harmonize and standardize the measurements. - Provide capacity building in new member states and countries with inadequate existing infrastructure. - Support existing observation sites and transfer of selected sites into supersites. - Integrate and further integrate marine observations of the NCGHGs with land-based observations - Improve measurement methods by testing new innovative techniques and strategies. - Test advanced isotope techniques for application in the network to enable attribution of the atmospheric fractions to source categories - Integrate data for network evaluation by using inverse modeling and data-assimilation methods and developments in bottom up inventories - Link the network to remote sensing data of column abundances from in-situ and satellite observations - Prepare for the integration of the NCGHG network with the Integrated Carbon Observation System.

Die Vollkosten des Klimawandels

Es existiert ein steigendes Interesse an der Ökonomik des Klimawandels, um Politikakteure über a) Langzeitziele, b) die Kosten der Untätigkeit und c) Kosten und Nutzen der Anpassung zu informieren. Ziel dieses Projekts ist es, das Wissen über diese drei Felder zu voranzutreiben, d.h. die vollen ökonomischen Kosten des Klimawandels zu ermitteln. Zur Erreichung dieses Ziels sind verschiedene Arbeitsschritte notwendig. Zuerst werden konsistente Klimawandel- und sozioökonomische Szenarien identifiziert und entwickelt. Zweitens werden die Kosten der Untätigkeit sowie die Kosten und Nutzen der Anpassung dieser Szenarien mittels einer disaggregierten Modellierung für die EU und andere bedeutende Länder, wie z.B. die USA und China, quantifiziert. Drittens werden die Kosten und Nutzen der Vermeidungsstrategien hinsichtlich der mittel- und langfristigen Reduktionsziele für Treibhausgasemissionen aktualisiert. Letztendlich werden als Zusammenführung der einzelnen Arbeitsschritte politikrelevante Ergebnisse, einschließlich Informationen über physische und ökonomische Effekte, bereitgestellt. Das ZEW wird im Rahmen des Projekts das rechenbare allgemeine Gleichgewichtsmodell PACE weiterentwickeln, um endogenen technischen Wandel in das Modell zu integrieren. Zu diesem Zweck werden Wissensströme identifiziert und bewertet. Endogener technologischer Wandel wird dann in das Modell einbezogen, wobei besonderes Augenmerk auf Technologieexternalitäten gelegt wird.

Sub-seabed CO2 Storage: Impact on Marine Ecosystems (ECO2)

Objective: The ECO2 project sets out to assess the risks associated with the storage of CO2 below the seabed. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is regarded as a key technology for the reduction of CO2 emissions from power plants and other sources at the European and international level. The EU will hence support a selected portfolio of demonstration projects to promote, at industrial scale, the implementation of CCS in Europe. Several of these projects aim to store CO2 below the seabed. However, little is known about the short-term and long-term impacts of CO2 storage on marine ecosystems even though CO2 has been stored sub-seabed in the North Sea (Sleipner) for over 13 years and for one year in the Barents Sea (Snhvit). Against this background, the proposed ECO2 project will assess the likelihood of leakage and impact of leakage on marine ecosystems. In order to do so ECO2 will study a sub-seabed storage site in operation since 1996 (Sleipner, 90 m water depth), a recently opened site (Snhvit, 2008, 330 m water depth), and a potential storage site located in the Polish sector of the Baltic Sea (B3 field site, 80 m water depth) covering the major geological settings to be used for the storage of CO2. Novel monitoring techniques will be applied to detect and quantify the fluxes of formation fluids, natural gas, and CO2 from storage sites and to develop appropriate and effective monitoring strategies. Field work at storage sites will be supported by modelling and laboratory experiments and complemented by process and monitoring studies at natural CO2 seeps that serve as analogues for potential CO2 leaks at storage sites. ECO2 will also investigate the perception of marine CCS in the public and develop effective means to disseminate the project results to stakeholders and policymakers. Finally, a best practice guide for the management of sub-seabed CO2 storage sites will be developed applying the precautionary principle and valuing the costs for monitoring and remediation.

ROBIN - Die Rolle von Biodiversität und Ökosysteme für die Reduktion von Klimawandelfolgen

Um das volle Potential von tropischen Wäldern für die Reduktion von Klimawandelfolgen (CCM) und das Angebot von anderen Ökosystemleistungen unter Bedingungen des globalen Wandels zu verstehen, müssen wir unser Verständnis der Beziehungen zwischen Biodiversität (BD) und sozio-ökologischen Prozessen, durch die wir auf Veränderung reagieren und uns anpassen, verbessern. ROBIN bietet Informationen für Politik- und Ressourcennutzungsoptionen mittels Szenarien des sozio-ökonomischen und klimabezogenem Wandels durch: Quantifizierung von Interaktionen zwischen terrestrischer Biodiversität, Landnutzung und CCM Potential im tropischen Lateinamerika; Entwicklung von Szenarien für CCM Optionen durch eine Evaluation ihrer Effektivität, ihrer unbeabsichtigten Auswirkungen auf andere ökosystemare Leistungen (z.B. Verringerung von Krankheitsfällen) und ihrer sozio-ökologischen Konsequenzen. Erreichen wollen wir das durch die Kombination von neuen Techniken (inkl. Fernerkundung) für Biodiversitätsmessungen in komplexen multi-funktionalen Landschaften, durch datenbasierte Analyse, und durch integrierte Modellierung und partizipative Ansätze auf lokaler und regionaler Ebene. Anhand einer Reihe von Fallbeispielen in Mesoamerika und in Amazonien versuchen wir die Beziehungen zwischen Biodiversität und CCM Optionen und Entwicklungen in der Ernährungspolitik zu verstehen. Diese Studien verbessern unser Wissen zu CCM Optionen, die der von Stakeholdern favorisiert werden, und unser Verständnis für Faktoren, die die Einführung von Ressourcenmanagementstrategien behindern oder fördern.

Prüfung der Pfade für die Verringerung des Klimawandels und Bewertung der Belastbarkeit von Schätzungen der Kosten dieser Verringerung

Die Kosten von Klimaschutz sollen besser abschätzbar werden. Zu diesem Zweck lassen Forscherteams aus zwölf Ländern ihre Computermodelle von Energie-Wirtschaft-Klima gegeneinander antreten. Deren Prognosen sollen tauglicher gemacht werden für Entscheidungen der Politik über Emissionsreduktionen oder Technologieförderung; sie fließen auch in den nächsten Report des Weltklimarats IPCC ein. Vier Herausforderungen für die Klimapolitik soll das Projekt angehen. (1.) Rückkopplungseffekte in der Reaktion des Klimas auf die Treibhausgasemissionen - beispielsweise durch das Entweichen von Methan beim Tauen des sibirischen Permafrostbodens - können erhebliche Auswirkungen auf den Klimaschutz haben. Das soll genauer untersucht werden. Analysiert wird (2.) die Bedeutung der Verfügbarkeit von Technologien zur Emissionsvermeidung und die Bedeutung des Planungshorizonts in Politik und Energiewirtschaft. Hier geht es um die Schwierigkeit, langfristige Klimaschutzziele mit begrenzten Mitteln und Planungshorizonten zu erreichen. Geklärt werden soll (3.) die Relevanz von fragmentierter Klimapolitik, wenn etwa nicht alle Regionen oder Wirtschaftszweige mitmachen. Bislang ist genau das die Realität - die Entscheider befürchten lässt, dass in den einen Ländern oder Branchen eine sinkende Nachfrage nach fossilen Brennstoffen deren Preis drückt, wodurch in anderen Ländern oder Branchen die Nachfrage steigt. Dieser Effekt soll in dem Forschungsprojekt nun quantifiziert werden. Und schließlich (4.) geht es um die Konsequenzen hieraus für die Klimapolitik in der EU. Projektpartner sind: 21 Partner aus China, Indien, Japan und neun europäischen Ländern von Griechenland bis Großbritannien.

Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptations (CLIMAFRICA)

Objective: Africa is probably the most vulnerable continent to climate change and climate variability and shows diverse range of agro-ecological and geographical features. Thus the impacts of climate change can be very high and will greatly differ across the continent, and even within countries. There is a urgent need for the most appropriate and up-to-date tools to better understand and predict climate change, assess its impact on African ecosystems and population, and develop the correct adaptation strategies. In particular the current proposal will focus on the following specific objectives: 1- Develop improved climate predictions on seasonal to decadal climatic scales, especially relevant to SSA; 2- Assess climate impacts in key sectors of SSA livelihood and economy, especially water resources and agriculture; 3- Evaluate the vulnerability of ecosystems and civil population to inter-annual variations and longer trends (10 years) in climate; 4- Suggest and analyse new suited adaptation strategies, focused on local needs; 5- Develop a new concept of 10 years monitoring and forecasting warning system, useful for food security, risk management and civil protection in SSA; 6- Analyse the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture and water resources in SSA and the cost-effectiveness of potential adaptation measures. These objectives will be achieved by an integrated working approach that involves 9 European, 8 African and 1 International Organization.

MEDiterranean Sea Acidification in a changing climate (MEDSEA)

Objective: Increases of atmospheric CO2 and associated decreases in seawater pH and carbonate ion concentration this century and beyond are likely to have wide impacts on marine ecosystems including those of the Mediterranean Sea. Consequences of this process, ocean acidification, threaten the health of the Mediterranean, adding to other anthropogenic pressures, including those from climate change. Yet in comparison to other areas of the world ocean, there has been no concerted effort to study Mediterranean acidification, which is fundamental to the social and economic conditions of more than 400 million people living along its coastlines and another 175 million who visit the region each year. The MedSeA project addresses ecologic and economic impacts from the combined influences of anthropogenic acidification and warming, while accounting for the unique characteristics of this key region. MedSeA will forecast chemical, climatic, ecological-biological, and socio-economical changes of the Mediterranean driven by increases in CO2 and other greenhouse gases, while focusing on the combined impacts of acidification and warming on marine shell and skeletal building, productivity, and food webs. We will use an interdisciplinary approach involving biologists, earth scientists, and economists, through observations, experiments, and modelling. These experts will provide science-based projections of Mediterranean acidification under the influence of climate change as well as associated economic impacts. Projections will be based on new observations of chemical conditions as well as new observational and experimental data on the responses of key organisms and ecosystems to acidification, which will be fed into existing ocean models that have been improved to account for the Mediterranean's fine-scale features. These scientific advances will allow us to provide the best advice to policymakers who must develop regional strategies for adaptation and mitigation.

Roadmaps towards Sustainable Energy Futures (RoSE)

In cooperation with FEEM in Italy and JGCR Institute in the USA PIK scientists set up a model-based analysis of the economy of climate policies targeting at carbon dioxid stabilization at 450 and 550 ppm. The aim of this project is to provide a portfolio of roadmaps for establishing sustainable energy systems that also shows options for ambitious aims in climate policy.

Forest fires under climate, social and economic changes in Europe, the Mediterranean and other fire-affected areas of the world (FUME)

Objective: Fire regimes result from interactions between climate, land-use and land-cover (LULC), and socioeconomic factors, among other. These changed during the last decades, particularly around the Mediterranean. Our understanding of how they affected fire regime in the past is limited. During this century temperatures, drought and heat waves will very likely increase, and rainfall decrease. These and further socioeconomic change will affect LULC. Additional areas will be abandoned due to being unsuitable for agriculture or other uses. Fire danger and fire hazard are very likely to increase, affecting fire regimes. FUME will learn from the past to understand future impacts. Mod. 1 we will study how LULC and socioeconomics changed and how climate and weather affected fire in dynamically changing landscapes. Fires will be mapped throughout Europe to determine hazard burning functions for LULC types. Since climate has changed, an attempt to attribute (sensu IPCC) fire regime change to climate, differentiating it from socioeconomic change, will be made. Mod. 2 will produce scenarios of change (climate, including extremes, land-use land-cover, socioeconomics, vegetation) for various emissions pathways and three time-slices during this century. With these and results from Mod.1, models and field experiments projected impacts on fire-regime and vegetation vulnerabilities will be calculated, including climate extremes (drought, heat-waves). Mod. 3 will investigate adaptation options in fire- and land-management, including restoration. Fire prevention and fire fighting protocols will be tested/developed under the new conditions to mitigating fire risks. A company managing fire will be a key player. Costs and policy impacts of changes in fire will be studied. Research will focus on old and new fire areas, the rural interface, whole Europe and the Mediterranean, including all Mediterranean countries of the world. Users will be involved in training and other activities.

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