Das Projekt "Ozonvorlaeufer und deren Wirkung in der Troposphaere" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Bremen, Institut für Umweltphysik durchgeführt. Objective/Problems to be solved: Tropospheric ozone has a dual role with respect to climatic changes. Ozone is itself a greenhouse gas and it also plays a key role in the production of the hydroxyl radical (OH), which controls the lifetime of many climatically important tropospheric gases. Tropospheric ozone and OH are produced as a result of photochemical processes, through reactions involving ozone precursors. The proposed project is defined in order to answer three main questions: first, can the surface emissions of ozone precursors, and their variability be accurately quantified? Second, how should the current observations of chemical species be optimally coupled with chemistry-transport models (CTMs) to quantify the global budgets of ozone precursors and ozone ? Third, how do future changes in surface emissions and proposed future scenarios influence the lifetime of greenhouse gases and ozone distribution ? The project will provide a quantitative basis for emissions, distributions and evolution of chemical tropospheric species for discussions related to policies aimed at improving the quality of air or at reduction of greenhouse species anthropogenic emissions. Scientific objectives and approach: The overall objective of the project is to quantify accurately the budget of ozone precursors using a combination of observations and state of the art CTM. The retrieval methods to derive accurately the tropospheric burdens of CO, CH4, NO2 and ozone from observations provided by the IMG/ADEOS and GOME instruments will be improved. High resolution inventories of emissions for ozone precursors will be developed. The ability of several European CTMs to reproduce current distributions will be assessed, through detailed comparisons between model results and observations. The impact of changes in ozone precursors on the tropospheric oxidising capacity and on the distribution of ozone will be quantified. The relative importance of anthropogenic versus natural emissions in the ozone production will be quantified. The inverse modelling approach for quantifying surface emissions will be further developed. These developments will yield an assessment of the accuracy of current inventories. The impact of emission mitigation policies on the distributions of methane and ozone will be quantified.. Expected impacts: The proposed project addresses issues that are central to our understanding of the causes of large-scale air pollution and climate change, and will provide a quantitative basis for reducing the environmental and climatic impact of human activities. The new tools and data bases we will develop will aid the understanding of changes in the composition of the atmosphere and their consequences. The emissions distributions we will optimise could be used as a starting point for discussions on emissions reduction policies... Prime Contractor: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, FU 0005 - Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace; Guyancout/France.
Das Projekt "Europaeisches Hochwasserwarnsystem" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde durchgeführt. Objective: Problems to be solved: National water authorities are normally able to provide flood warnings between one and four days in advance of flood events. These warnings are usually based on weather forecasts in combination with a knowledge of the actual hydrologic conditions in the river basins concerned. However, the emergency civil and water management agencies would benefit from an increase in lead-time, to effectively implement their plans in downstream areas. Therefore there exists a need for improved flood forecasting to extend the flood warning period. Improved flood forecasting should enable more effective evacuation of people from high risk areas or the controlled release of water from reservoirs in upstream areas to create temporary retention basins to reduce flood volumes and peaks. EFFS aims at developing a prototype of a 4-10 days in advance European flood forecasting system. This system aims at providing daily information on potential floods for the large rivers Rhine and Oder as well as flash floods in small basins. The framework of the system will allow incorporation of both detailed models for specific basins as well as a broad scale for entire Europe. Scientific objectives and approach: The overall objectives of EFFS are to employ currently available Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (4 - 10 days) to produce reliable flood warnings, beyond the current flood warning period of approximately 3 days. The project will design a Medium-Range Flood Forecasting System for Europe, that will produce flood warnings on the basis of the Medium Range Weather Forecasts. On the basis of the newly developed system, flood forecasts will be produced in regions where at present flood forecasts are unavailable. The scientific objectives include: 1) the development and application of downscaling techniques for weather forecasts that can be used in real-time operational flood warning systems over large areas; 2) the design of a framework that allows for the use of different rainfall-runoff flood models linked to the Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in order to provide Medium Range Flood Forecasts; 3) the investigation of the concept of an overall water balance hydrological model as a basis for regional rainfall-runoff flood modelling; 4) the investigate of the accuracy of the flood forecasts in space and time starting off from uncertainties in Medium Range Weather Forecasts and assess the error propagation through the system; 5) the finding of methods to incorporate uncertainties both from the weather forecasts as well as from the hydrologic models to be used in operational forecasts and use them as a decision factor as part of the actual flood forecast; 6) the investigation and recommendations concerning methods to disseminate the forecasts to whom they might concern, and to retrieve feedback from the users. Prime Contractor: Foundation Delft Hydraulics; Deft.
Das Projekt "Entwicklung eines europaeischen Mehrmodellsystems fuer die saisonale bis interannuale Vorhersage" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie durchgeführt. Objective/Problems to be solved: Seasonal prediction of climate has shown promise in recent years, in particular for the tropics (ENSO), but also for the extratropics and Europe, with potential important socio-economic benefits. There is a need to further develop this capability and to involve user communities to maximize benefits. Scientific objectives and approach: The overall objective is the development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to interannual climate prediction, to integrate specific user application models and to assess the economic value of the system. Six global coupled ocean-atmosphere models developed at different institutes in Europe will be installed on a common supercomputer. A set of multi-model ensemble hindcasts will be produced using reanalysis data for initialisation and validation. By including independent models in the ensemble, the impact of model uncertainty on seasonal predictions can be quantified. The validation will include an assessment of the predictability of El Nino and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and seasonal weather elements over Europe. The project calls for about 30 years of ensemble integration using ERA-40 data (with existing ERA-15 data as a back up). Each integration will be 6 months long, and each model will be used to provide model-ensembles. Empirical correction techniques will be used to provide model-dependent bias corrected data. Thorough evaluation of the meteorological and oceanographic skill of the hindcasts, using probabilistic validation tools, will be made. Evaluation of the predictability of El Nino, the NAO and seasonal weather elements over Europe and tropical Africa will be undertaken. Data from the hindcasts will be made available to the research, user, and forecasting community. A number of sensitivity studies will be undertaken and the importance of using coupled models, and of using ocean and satellite altimeter data will be evaluated. Two methods for providing downscaled products will be assessed. Data from the hindcasts will be input into quantitative user application models for predicting probability distributions of crop yield over Europe, and incidence of disease in the tropical Africa. This will be used for a quantitative assessment of the value of the forecast system in the two sectors. Expected impacts: The project paves the way for a fully operational seasonal climate prediction system, which would give important benefits for almost every sector of society in Europe and in regions of European interests. Prime Contractor: European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); Reading.