Das Projekt "Klima und Umwelt in alpinen Gebieten - CLEAR I" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Zürich, Institut für Umweltwissenschaften durchgeführt. Klimatische Risiken sind eines der Problemfelder, in denen herkoemmlicher Umweltschutz zu einem innovationsorientierten Umweltmanagement weiterentwickelt werden kann und muss. Interdisziplinaere Forschung kann dazu wichtige Erkenntnisse beisteuern. Klimadynamik im Alpenraum ist schwierig vorherzusagen: Werden Luftmassen gegen ein Hindernis getrieben, so koennen sie es entweder um- oder ueberstroemen. Bei einem isolierten Berg wird die erste, bei einer langen Bergkette die zweite Moeglichkeit realisiert. Irgendwo dazwischen liegt eine Konfiguration, bei der sich ein Bifurkationspunkt ergibt: welche der beiden Moeglichkeiten realisiert wird, haengt von geringfuegigen Fluktuationen ab. Diese Konfiguration ist im Alpenraum gegeben. Eben deshalb sind Wetterprognosen in diesem Raum sehr viel schwieriger als anderswo. Dieses Problem ist fuer die Untersuchung von anthropogenen Klimaveraenderungen u.a. deshalb gravierend, weil sich die Niederschlagsverteilungen voellig verschieden darstellen, je nachdem ob die Alpen von feuchter Luft um- oder ueberstroemt werden. Sprunghafte Veraenderungen in Vergangenheit und Zukunft erforschen: Die Untersuchung der Klimadynamik im Alpenraum gibt ein wichtiges Beispiel fuer die Unsicherheiten, mit denen die Wissenschaft konfrontiert ist, wenn kleine Zufallsschwankungen in Systemen mit nichtlinearer Dynamik grosse Wirkungen zeigen. Daraus koennen sich sprunghafte Veraenderungen ergeben, die nur sehr beschraenkt prognostizierbar sind. Diese Schwierigkeit erfordert besondere Aufmerksamkeit bei der Kopplung von globalen Klimamodellen mit der Untersuchung regionaler Grosswetterlagen, ein Teilbereich innerhalb des CLEAR. Mit einer anderen sprunghaften Veraenderung wurden Klimaforscherlnnen im Bereich der Palaeooekologie konfrontiert. Um die langfristigen Klimaentwicklung zu untersuchen, werden im Rahmen von CLEAR u.a. Seesedimente analysiert, in denen - aehnlich wie in den Jahrringen von Baeumen - Spuren vergangener Zeiten in Jahresschichten archiviert sind. Ihre Textur zeigt ploetzliche Veraenderungen, die auf entsprechend abrupte Veraenderungen im Zustand des betreffenden Oekosystems hinweisen. Derartige Uebergaenge sind auch fuer die Entwicklung alpiner Oekosysteme, die im Rahmen von CLEAR von Biologlnnen untersucht werden, von Bedeutung.
Das Projekt "Numerische Modellstudien zum Einfluss der Alpen auf das Klima - ein Beitrag zum CLEAR-Programm" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, Geographisches Institut durchgeführt. Leading Questions: Validity of General Circulation Models on the regional scale; effects of geographical features on regional climate patterns Beniston, M., Mountain Environment in Changing Climates, Routledge Publishers, London/New York 1994. Abstract: The Alps are a significant barrier to flow dynamics, leading to effects such as lateral wind deflection resulting in regional wind systems, orographically-induced turbulence, wave breaking, and vertical shear forced by the flow deflection. Atmospheric heating is also affected by topography, and meso- and synoptic-scale investigations by different groups have in recent years underlined the significance of the thermal effect of mountains, via vertical turbulent transfers not only of momentum, but also of latent and sensible heat. The research proposed in this study will be to identify the weaknesses of General Circulation Climate Models (GCMs) at various resolutions in the representation of these phenomena, to investigate in more detail the nature of turbulent transfers of heat, moisture, and momentum in the presence of orography using real atmospheric data, any available remote-sensing data, and results from mesoscale atmospheric models being operated by other CLEAR partners. The findings of these investigations will be synthesized in the form of suggestions for improved orographic parameterization techniques in GCMs. Numerous interactions are foreseen within the CLEAR partnership and major climate modeling groups in Europe. This study makes use of advanced numerical models - a high-resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Climate Model and a detailed regional-scale atmospheric model - to try to gain deeper insight into the dynamic and thermodynamic effects of a mountain chain such as the Alps on continental-scale, and possibly also global-scale, climate processes. One of the most important of these processes linked to the presence of the Alps are the so-called 'blocking high pressure episodes' in which a high pressure ridge can stagnate for several days or weeks, significantly modifying the temperature and precipitation regimes over the Alps. This has consequences for hydrology, snow and on economic activities such as winter tourism and hydro-power generation. By investigating numerically these features, in particular their inception and disintegration and their possible predictability, it is hoped that we can forecast their potential frequency in the future, under conditions of increased greenhouse-gas concentrations.
Das Projekt "ForClimSense: Alpine Waldoekosysteme in einem sich aendernden Klima - Palaeoklimatische Modellvalidierung und Empfindlichkeitsanalyse" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETHZ), Institut für Terrestrische Ökologie ITOE durchgeführt. Forests are globally as well as locally important ecosystems and are mounded by climate. Because of the longevity of trees forests can rarely be studied directly, which renders mathematical models indispensable tools to study forest dynamics. We use the ecosystem model ForClim, which had first to be validated by applying it during the end of the last ice age. We simulated species compositions and compared them with pollen records (data from 1.18., 1.19., 1.20.), which we were able to reproduce. By using climate scenarios down-scaled from GCMs by Gyalistras (1.5.) we assessed the sensitivity of mountain forests to impacts of global climatic changes. We found no uniform response: Some forests suffered from temporary die-backs due to strong changes in species compositions or vanished completely due to drought stress, some profited due to increased productivity, and some were hardly affected at all. In general, climatic change affects sensitive forests as found in the mountains immediately, yet to adjust to a new climate a forest requires as long as 600-800 years.
Das Projekt "Umweltdynamik in Vergangenheit und Gegenwart" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Eidgenössische Anstalt für Wasserversorgung, Abwasserreinigung und Gewässerschutz, Abteilung für Umweltphysik durchgeführt. How can the environmental conditions in the past be reconstructed and linked to the present? The restricted view of the past: An often-stated concern today is that global warming may result in higher surface air temperatures than have ever been experienced in 'the past', with unpredictable effects on the biosphere and on social and economic infrastructures in many regions of the globe. Many of us tend to have a subjective view of 'the past' in this context which is limited to the last century or so. One reason for this limited historical perspective is the fact that networks of meteorological stations delivering high-quality instrumental data have only been in existence for the last 150 years at most. In addition, comparative media reports tend to focus on a time span within 'modern human experience'. This period, lying within the subjective time horizons of most of the inhabitants of the Alpine nations, therefore makes a suitable beginning to the story of alpine palaeoclimatology. Learning how to decipher the information left behind in nature's archives: Although Homo sapiens has experienced a least three glacial episodes, some 600 generations have passed since the last Glacial and no 'tribal memories' of Ice-Age conditions remain. Only after learning how to decipher the information left behind in nature's archives, a process which did not begin until last century, did mankind begin indirectly to rediscover Alpine glacial history. This process led to the ability to put the above-mentioned short-term 'modern human experience', especially with regard to climate studies, in much longer-term perspective. Basic to any understanding of long-term climate development in the Alpine region is the so-called Glacial Theory. Three common time windows: The principal objective is to connect and reciprocally calibrate various environmental archives and their data as well as to reconstruct the long-term history of environmental changes and climatic sequences. The projects within the coordinated project concentrated their common investigations on three time windows: 1) the last 200 years, 2) transition Younger Dryas - Preboreal (ca. 10500-9500 BP), 3) transition Allerod - Younger Dryas (ca. 11500-10500 BP).
Das Projekt "Binnenseesedimente als indirekte Archive fuer die Rekonstruktion der Umweltdynamik in Raum und Zeit: Eichung und quantitative Rekonstruktion in den Alpen (AQUAREAL)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Bern, Systematisch-Geobotanisches Institut durchgeführt. In a first phase (1993-1995) the basic scientific tools are built up and developed that will enable statistically reliable quantification of palaeo proxy-data in terms of past environment. This involves the development of modern transfer-functions and the calibration of proxy-data time-series. The project uses two independent approaches: a) establishment of mathematical/statistical relationships between different biological organisms and environmental variables, i.e. calibration or transfer functions by means of modern surface sediment samples. Surface samples from 68 lakes in altitudes between 300 and 2400 m a.s.l. have been sampled and the analyses of the different microfossils groups is in progress. b) cross-correlation of sub-recent varve parameters in Baldeggersee with instrumental meteorological records for the period of 1901-1993. Little is known about the relationship between ecological and climatic parameters influencing varve formation in lakes. It is therefore essential to define potentially sensitive climatic parameters in the varves as well as to separate statistically the nutrient impact of the lake from the climate signal. Measurements of sediment accumulation during the summer portion of the annual layer may provide a direct or indirect measure of climatic events that affect the biological growing season. The proposed project aims at reconstructing the past dynamics of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. In a first phase (1993-1995) the basic scientific tools will be built up and developed that will enable statistically reliable quantification of palaeo proxy-data in terms of past environment. This quantitative environmental reconstruction involves the development of modern transfer-functions and the calibration of proxy-data time-series. The proposed project has two independent parts: a) calibration or transfer functions for climate (pollen, Chironomids) and/or nutrients (Cladocera, diatoms) by means of 50-100 modern surface sediment samples. b) cross-correlation of sub-recent varve parameters in Swiss Plateau lakes with instrumental meteorological records and tree-ring time-series. In a second phase (1996-2000) the results of these two approaches will be applied to long proxy-data records along a transect across the Alps in order to reconstruct past environments and to assess natural variability, as well as to identify phases and amplitudes of the driving parameters (e.g. climate, human impact). Leading Questions: What are the natural variability and long-term dynamics of ecosystems and climate? What are the amplitudes of past rates of change? How long are the response times of ecosystems to perturbations? How are environmental signals reflected in lacustrine sediments?
Das Projekt "Alpines Klima und Klimaaenderungen: Eine Studie einiger Schluesselprozesse in der Atmosphaere" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, Geographisches Institut, Abteilung Hydrologie durchgeführt. What is the relation of the larger scale flow and the regional climate in the Alpine region? Which are the key processes which govern the regional climate in response to the larger scale weather patterns? Are observed climatological precipitation distributions over the Alpine region reproducible with a state-of-the-art regional scale weather forecasting model? Global change will affect the Alpine region not only through the projected warming itself, but the most serious effects might be related to other variables such as precipitation. The prime objectives of our project are (i) to evaluate the predictability of the regional climate with special regard to precipitation, and (ii) to assess the sensitivity of critical atmospheric processes to global change. To this end, month-long current-day climate simulations with a regional atmospheric model are conducted (horizontal resolution between 14 and 56 km). The simulations are driven by and validated against observed data. The results show that in winter-time the simulations reproduce the observed distribution of precipitation remarkably well, while in summer-time the simulated precipitation patterns are qualitatively reasonable but not quantitatively satisfactory. This difference in model behavior is related to the dominance of convective precipitation processes during the summer season. The study enables us to better estimate the uncertainties inherent to climate scenarios in the Alpine region, and it does pinpoint towards critical processes which govern the regional precipitation distribution in response to the larger-scale forcing. Complementary information: The Alps as a major topographic barrier exert a pronounced impact on regional weather and climate. For example, on occasions they extract a significant fraction of the ambient atmospheric moisture content through various topographically-controlled precipitation mechanisms. These factors have a large impact on- the ecology and economy of the Alpine region, and they are also the key players in shaping the regional effects of a putative global climate change. Their impact is likely to exceed that related to the 'global warming' itself. The main tool for this study is a state-of-the-art, regional scale, physico-mathematical, numerical model. It is used to perform simulations of climate-determining weather events (time scale days to months) within the Alpine region, together with sensitivity studies of those events that relate to global change scenarios.
Das Projekt "Rekonstruktion und Modellierung der Langzeitdynamik von Oekosystemen" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Eidgenössische Anstalt für Wasserversorgung, Abwasserreinigung und Gewässerschutz, Abteilung für Umweltphysik durchgeführt. How can we extract from the sediment record of a lake information about the influence of climate on terrestrial and lacustrine ecosystems as well as information about the nature of the endogenous dynamics of these ecosystems? What are the uncertainties associated with this information? What is the relevance for policy makers? Irrespective of location, mean air temperatures in Switzerland have increased by about 1 oC over the last hundred years. Lake surface water temperatures are undergoing a secular increase at a similar rate. In deep lakes, this implies a long-term increase in thermal stability and a prolongation of summer stagnation. Also, ice covered lakes in Switzerland exhibit a secular trend to earlier break-up. The secular trend apparent in the Swiss air and water temperature data over the last 50 yr does not appear in air temperature data from central England, despite a great similarity in shorter-term temporal structures. Thus, secular air and water temperature increases may be more a regional than a continent-wide phenomenon. Since secular increases in mean air temperature in lowland areas are due to nighttime warming, this is also likely to be true of lake temperatures. Complementary information: Although the existence of secular trends in air temperature over the last hundred years, both globally and regionally, is well documented, the response of lake water temperature to recent climatic changes has been largely neglected. Long-term meteorological records show that surface air temperatures in Switzerland have been increasing persistently at an average rate of about 0.01 Koyr-1 since the end of the 19th century, which is about 50-100 percent greater than the global rate of increase. Since air and water temperatures can be viewed as indicators of essentially the same climatic trends, although with different response times, an increase in the temperature of surface waters over the same period of time is also be expected. In deep lakes, only temperatures in the upper water layers appear to be undergoing a long-term increase. This is causing a general increase in thermal stability, a reduction in the duration of winter circulation and a prolongation of the summer stratification period. Decreases hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations and an upward extension of the anoxic zone are likely to result.
Das Projekt "Genetische Auswirkungen auf kleine, zersplitterte Vogelpopulationen" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Basel, Departement Integrative Biologie, Zoologisches Institut durchgeführt. 1. How does the spatial structure of the habitat and gene flow influence local genetic diversity? 2. Does inbreeding in wild birds lead to a decline in reproductive success that could cause local extinctions? Conservation biologists have become increasingly concerned about reductions in genetic variability, individual survival, and fecundity that occur due to inbreeding (inbreeding depression), particularly in small populations of endangered species. However, the extent of inbreeding depression in the wild is still unknown mostly due to the general lack of relevant data. Our project investigates genetic effects in small, subdivided populations, using Song Sparrows as a model. The existing pedigree is based on 20 years of research on a met population of Song Sparrows on the West Coast of Canada and allows an analysis of inbreeding and fitness. We also use micro satellite markers to examine the genetic variation. Our preliminary results show that inbreeding reduced the survival of juvenile Song Sparrows over the whole study period. In particular, inbred birds were five times less likely to survive a severe bottleneck caused by a winter storm than were non-inbred birds. Thus, inbreeding depression was expressed in the face of a common environmental challenge, and one that is also likely to be faced by inbred populations of endangered species. Complementary information: One of the major human impacts on natural populations is loss and fragmentation of habitats. The local populations which result from the sub-division may become so small that stochastic effects on the population dynamics cause the extinction of these local populations. Hence, we must understand the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of small, subdivided populations to manage and preserve them. Extinction is fundamentally a demographic process, influenced by genetic and environmental effects. Genetical effects on the demography of small populations have been neglected. We propose research to examine genetical effects in two small, subdivided populations of birds. We apply for support to improve our basic knowledge of the interactions between and significance of reproductive isolation through habitat fragmentation, different kinds of genetic variation and the level of gene flow for population dynamics, particularly met population dynamics. We will 1. Examine the importance of dispersal, gene flow and the source/sink characteristics of the local populations for the dynamics of the met population using an approach combining description and field experiments. 2. Assess the effects of inbreeding on reproductive success. We will use extensive existing data sets for pedigree analysis and examine experimentally the effects of close inbreeding on reproductive success.
Das Projekt "CLEAR: Neuartige Reaktionen auf vorhergesehene Klimaaenderungen" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Eidgenössische Anstalt für Wasserversorgung, Abwasserreinigung und Gewässerschutz, Abteilung Humanökologie durchgeführt. 1eading Questions: How is climate change information disseminated in the general public? What role plays uncertainty of such information with respect to processes of social learning and norm-building? Do such processes support the development of innovations? Which innovations will provide social benefits even if the predicted climate changes do not occur? Which factors influence regional public acceptance of such innovations? Abstract: The project aims at understanding reduction possibilities for greenhouse gas emissions in industrialized societies. Policy strategies relying on technical efficiency often fail because they neglect institutional and behavioral barriers. Therefore, social factors and mechanisms have to be taken into account for the design of powerful climate policy instruments. In our project, socio-technical innovation processes are analyzed in a case study on light weight vehicles (lwv). Qualitative interviews are used as the major method. First results are: (1) Swiss prototypes and components of lwv's are among the best worldwide. (2) Lwv's could help to stabilize or even reduce Swiss greenhouse gas emissions. (3) Manufacturing prospects of lwv's are threatened by substantial uncertainties. (4) Adequate policy instruments would reduce these uncertainties. (5) A better understanding of consumers' preference formation is central for the assessment of lwv's market potential, and thus reduces uncertainties. Complementary information: Climate change can affect human societies in two ways: (1) directly by physical impacts and (2) indirectly by an anticipation of impacts that leads to changes of legislation, economic expectations, cultural values, etc. This second kind of effects, which is strongly dependent on the results of climate modeling, is the theme of the present project. We will investigate the relation between climate models elaborated by natural scientists and the conceptions of human-induced climate change developed by decision-makers as well as by the general public. We will study whether inconsistent and uncertain information is likely to reinforce existing conflict patterns if such information does not contribute to the creation of social rules for handling climate risk conflicts. Our research will concentrate on the regional level (the border areas of Basle, Ticino and the Jura), as regions have been shown to be important incubators of innovation processes, including the evolution of new social rules. In two case studies, regional innovation processes that could contribute to a reduction of CO2-emissions will be scrutinized and evaluated with regard to economic feasibility and social acceptability. The first case concerns the development, production and/or commercialisation of electric vehicles. The second case study deals with new forms of business organisation that reduce commuting, especially in urban areas, by decentralising office space into neighborhoods.
Das Projekt "Fallstudien zu Abweichungen im bioklimatischen Szenario und der Empfindlichkeit von Pflanzenverteilungen gegenueber Klimaaenderungen" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Ville de Geneve, Departement municipal des affaires culturelles, Conservatoire et Jardin botaniques durchgeführt. Leading Questions: 1) Is it possible to predict current distribution of 'key stone species' (plant indicator species) within the alpine belt, considering the distribution of a set of specific key environmental factors? 2) If 1) is possible, what is the specific sensitivity of current plant distribution to certain environmental factors (climatic edaphic,...)? 3) Given the current correlation between plant occurrence and environmental variables coordinates, how would current 'plant position' be translocated if the 'key sensitiv' climatic parameters are modified by climate change? Abstract: The project is aimed at evaluating the response of certain Alpine plant species to climate change. In order to achieve this aim, climate scenarios of use to ecosystem espace are required and will be derived through statistical downscaling techniques. For the ecosystem component of the project, advanced statistical methods and Geographic Information Systems will be applied for analysis and prediction.
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