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Between Path Dependence and Path Creation: The Impact of Farmers' Behavior and Policies on Structural Change in Agriculture

Farm structures are often characterized by regional heterogeneity, agglomeration effects, sub-optimal farm sizes and income disparities. The main objective of this study is to analyze whether this is a result of path dependent structural change, what the determinants of path dependence are, and how it may be overcome. The focus is on the German dairy sector which has been highly regulated and subsidized in the past and faces severe structural deficits. The future of this sector in the process of an ongoing liberalization will be analyzed by applying theoretical concepts of path dependence and path breaking. In these regards, key issues are the actual situation, technological and market trends as well as agricultural policies. The methodology will be based on a participative use of the agent-based model AgriPoliS and participatory laboratory experiments. On the one hand, AgriPoliS will be tested as a tool for stakeholder oriented analysis of mechanisms, trends and policy effects. This part aims to analyze whether and how path dependence of structural change can be overcome on a sector level. In a second part, AgriPoliS will be extended such that human players (farmers, students) can take over the role of agents in the model. This part aims to compare human agents with computer agents in order to overcome single farm path dependence.

Short-term survival of Gasterosteus aculeatus F1 offspring during the 90 day growth experiment depending on parent and offspring (beaker) heatwave treatment

Short-term survival of F1 offspring during the 90 day growth experiment depending on parent and offspring (beaker) heatwave treatment

Mesocosm experiment on the influence of heatwave on plankton

In the context of global change, marine organisms are subjected not only to gradual changes in abiotic parameters, but also to an increasing number of extreme events, such as heatwaves. However, we still know little about the influence of heatwaves on the structure of marine communities, and experimental studies are needed to test the impact of heatwaves alone, and in combination with other environmental drivers. Here, we conducted a mesocosm experiment and applied an integrated multiple driver design to assess the potential impact of heatwaves under ambient and future environmental conditions on natural coastal plankton communities. To represent future environmental conditions, temperature and pH were manipulated based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 proposed by the IPCC for 2100, and dissolved N:P ratios were increased to simulate the conditions expected in European coastal zones. Throughout the experiment, we measured abiotic conditions as well as the abundance of bacterioplankton, phytoplankton, and microzooplankton.

Light effects on the vertical positioning of the freshwater jellyfish (Craspedacusta sowerbii Lankester, 1880)

We experimentally manipulated the presence of light and light intensity (F = 36.7 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹; D = 0 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹; L = 4.8 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹; M = 21.4 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹) and tested their effects on the vertical positioning of the freshwater jellyfish (Craspedacusta sowerbii) medusae. For the experiments, approximately 100 C. sowerbii medusae were collected in August 2017 in two lakes (Haager Weiher and Leitner Weiher) in Bavaria, Germany. Testing was carried out at Seeon Limnological Station in close vicinity to the collection site. The experimental columns were 7.4 cm in diameter and 170 cm high and were marked with horizontal lines every 5 cm for visual position estimation. Four replicates run in parallel. One C. sowerbii medusa was used in each experimental column. Data cover three light treatments, each run twice: 1) 16:8 h full light (F)–dark (D) light intensity cycles (nF = 716, nD = 428), 2) 16:8 h full light (F)–full dark (D) light intensity cycles complemented with low (L) and medium (M) light intensities (nF = 96, nM = 96, nL = 48, nD = 288), and 3) altered light intensities in approximately 2-hour periods randomly among dark, low, medium, and full light intensities (nF = 96, nM = 76, nL = 72, nD = 336). Results show that light alone was sufficient to trigger a vertical position change of jellyfish towards the water surface, especially high light.

An integrated multiple driver mesocosm experiment reveals the effect of global change on planktonic food web structure

We conducted a mesocosm experiment with an integrated multiple driver design to assess the impact of future global change scenarios on plankton, a key component of marine food webs. The experimental treatments were based on the RCP 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios developed by the IPCC, which were Extended (ERCP) to integrate the future predicted changing nutrient inputs into coastal waters. The mesocosm experiment was conducted over three weeks in late-summer (August-September) 2018. Seawater containing a natural plankton community was collected from the coastal North Sea. At the onset of the experiment, CO2 saturated seawater was added to the ERCP scenario mesocosms to adjust pCO2 and pH levels for each scenario. To create a realistic environment, we also manipulated the atmospheric pCO2 in the enclosed mesocosm tanks throughout the experiment. Seawater temperature was adjusted daily according to the current North Sea temperature measured at the Helgoland Roads for the Ambient, and 1.5°C and 3.0°C warmer for the ERCP 6.0 and ERCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Dissolved nutrient concentrations were determined at the onset of the experiment and adjusted to reach the desired N:P ratios. Samples were taken in an interval of 1-3 days depending on the phytoplankton bloom development, and community composition, except for the large mesozooplankton, was monitored throughout the experiment period.

LA-ICP-MS data (Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca and Mn/Ca) of foraminifera from controlled growth experiments

LA-ICP-MS data from three different experiments including five foraminiferal species: Ammonia confertitesta (Bourgenuf, France), Bulimina marginata, Cassidulina laevigata (Gullmard Fjord, Sweden), Amphistegina lessonii and Operculina ammonoides (Eilat, Israel). Foraminifera were cultured at different oxygen concentrations (30% and 100% oxygen saturation). Element to calcium ratio (E/Ca) and partition coefficients (D) of Mg, Mn and Sr are noted for individual laser ablation measurements per specimen.

Analysis of antibiotics in environmental samples

Due to its location at the air-sea interface, the sea surface microlayer is prone to accumulating anthropogenic pollutants. We analyzed the presence of antibiotic compounds, including ciprofloxacin, in this area using ultra-performance liquid chromatography—triple quadrupole mass spectrometry in tandem with ionization spray (UPLC-QqQMS/MS) (Bruker EVOQ Elite system, Billerica MA). We compared the numbers and concentrations of these compounds in the microlayer to those found in the underlying water column.

Effect of agricultural intensification on cereal aphid-primary parasitoid-hyperparasitoid food web structures and interactions

Changes in agroecosystem management (e.g. landscape diversity, management intensity) affect the natural control of pests. The effects of agricultural change on this ecosystem service, however, are not universal and the mechanisms affecting it remain to be understood. As biological control is effectively the product of networks of interactions between pests and their natural enemies, food web analysis provides a versatile tool to address this gap of knowledge. The proposed project will utilize a molecular food web approach and examine, for the first time, how changes in plant fertilisation and landscape complexity affect quantitative aphid-parasitoid-hyperparasitoid food webs on a species-specific level to unravel how changes in food web interactions affect parasitoid aphid control. Based on the fieldderived data, cage experiments will be conducted to assess how parasitoid diversity and identity affect parasitoid interactions and pest control, complementing the field results. The work proposed here will take research on parasitoid aphid control one step further, as it will provide a clearer understanding of how plant fertilization affects whole aphid-parasitoid food webs in both simple and complex landscapes, allowing for further improvements in natural pest control.

Immobilisation of arsenic in paddy soil by iron(II)-oxidizing bacteria

Arsenic-contaminated ground- and drinking water is a global environmental problem with about 1-2Prozent of the world's population being affected. The upper drinking water limit for arsenic (10 Micro g/l) recommended by the WHO is often exceeded, even in industrial nations in Europe and the USA. Chronic intake of arsenic causes severe health problems like skin diseases (e.g. blackfoot disease) and cancer. In addition to drinking water, seafood and rice are the main reservoirs for arsenic uptake. Arsenic is oftentimes of geogenic origin and in the environment it is mainly bound to iron(III) minerals. Iron(III)-reducing bacteria are able to dissolve these iron minerals and therefore release the arsenic to the environment. In turn, iron(II)-oxidizing bacteria have the potential to co-precipitate or sorb arsenic during iron(II)- oxidation at neutral pH followed by iron(III) mineral precipitation. This process may reduce arsenic concentrations in the environment drastically, lowering the potential risk for humans dramatically.The main goal of this study therefore is to quantify, identify and isolate anaerobic and aerobic Fe(II)-oxidizing microorganisms in arsenic-containing paddy soil. The co-precipitation and thus removal of arsenic by iron mineral producing bacteria will be determined in batch and microcosm experiments. Finally the influence of rhizosphere redox status on microbial Fe oxidation and arsenic uptake into rice plants will be evaluated in microcosm experiments. The long-term goal of this research is to better understand arsenic-co-precipitation and thus arsenic-immobilization by iron(II)-oxidizing bacteria in rice paddy soil. Potentially these results can lead to an improvement of living conditions in affected countries, e.g. in China or Bangladesh.

Ecological valuation of crop pollination in traditional Indonesian homegardens

Traditional Indonesian homegardens harbour often high crop diversity, which appears to be an important basis for a sustainable food-first strategy. Crop pollination by insects is a key ecosystem service but threatened by agricultural intensification and land conversion. Gaps in knowledge of actual benefits from pollination services limit effective management planning. Using an integrative and agronomic framework for the assessment of functional pollination services, we will conduct ecological experiments and surveys in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. We propose to study pollination services and net revenues of the locally important crop species cucumber, carrot, and eggplant in traditional homegardens in a forest distance gradient, which is hypothesized to affect bee community structure and diversity. We will assess pollination services and interactions with environmental variables limiting fruit maturation, based on pollination experiments in a split-plot design of the following factors: drought, nutrient deficiency, weed pressure, and herbivory. The overall goal of this project is the development of 'biodiversity-friendly' land-use management, balancing human and ecological needs for local smallholders.

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