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Improving Preparedness and Risk Management for flash floods and debris flow events (IMPRINTS)

The aim of IMPRINTS is to contribute to reduce loss of life and economic damage through the improvement of the preparedness and the operational risk management for Flash Flood and Debris Flow (FF/DF) generating events, as well as to contribute to sustainable development through reducing damages to the environment. To achieve this ultimate objective the project is oriented to produce methods and tools to be used by emergency agencies and utility companies responsible for the management of FF/DF risks and associated effects. Impacts of future changes, including climatic, land use and socioeconomic will be analyzed in order to provide guidelines for mitigation and adaptation measures. Specifically, the consortium will develop an integrated probabilistic forecasting FF/ DF system as well as a probabilistic early warning and a rule-based probabilistic forecasting system adapted to the operational use by practitioners. These systems will be tested on five selected flash flood prone areas, two located in mountainous catchments in the Alps, and three in Mediterranean catchments. The IMPRINTS practitioner partners, risk management authorities and utility company managers in duty of emergency management in these areas, will supervise these tests. The development of such systems will be carried out using and capitalizing the results of previous and ongoing research on FF/DF forecasting and warning systems, in which several of the partners have played a prominent role. One major result of the project will be a operational prototype including the tools and methodologies developed under the project. This prototype will be designed under the premise of its ultimate commercialization and use worldwide. The consortium, covering all the actors involved in the complex chain of FF & DF forecasting, has been carefully selected to ensure the achievement of this. Specific actions to exploit and protect the results and the intellectual property of the partners have been also defined.

Grundlagen für die Prognose, Überwachung und nachhaltige Regulierung von Schädlingen im Obst- und Freilandgemüsebau

Die hohen Ansprüche an die Qualität von Obst und Gemüse führen zu einer besonders geringen Tole-ranz für Beeinträchtigungen durch Schädlinge. Deshalb muss deren wirkungsvolle und umweltschonende Regulierung auch in Zukunft garantiert sein, selbst unter dem Einfluss des Klimawandels und beim Auftreten neuer invasiver Arten. Als Grundlage für die Überwachung und für neue Integrierte Bekämpfungsstrategien liefert das Tätigkeitsfeld Kenntnisse über die Biologie von Schädlingen (Insekten, Milben) und Nützlingen in den Agrarökosystemen des Obstbaus und des Freilandgemüsebaus. Es stellt Phänologiemodelle und Entscheidungshilfesysteme (Decision support systems DSS) für die Praxis und für die vorausschauende Beurteilung von Folgen des Klimawandels bereit, entwickelt biologische und biotechnische Pflanzenschutzmassnahmen und stellt die Diagnostik von Quarantäneschädlingen sicher. Dies Arbeiten leisten signifikante Beiträge zu den thematischen Schwerpunkten 'Ökologische Intensivierung' sowie 'Klimaschutz und Anpassung an Klimawandel'. Die Leistungen erfolgen schwerpunktmässig im Bereich des Kernthemas 'Verbesserung der Pflanzenproduktion, insbesondere unter Einbezug von Pflanzenschutz, Sorten und Saat- und Pflanzgut'. In diesem Projekt werden Leistungen bei der Diagnostik von Quarantäneschädlingen zur Verfügung gestellt (in Zusammenarbeit mit FB 12 Diagnostik und Risikobeurteilung Pflanzenschutz) und wissenschaftliche Unterstützung für die kantonalen Fachstellen geboten.

Quantitative Sektoranalyse - Quantitative Analyse und Prognose des Agrarsektors

Ziele: 1. Das System SILAS zur Analyse und Prognose des Agrarsektors verfügt über aktuelle Datengrundlagen und Methoden (BTS, RAUS, Biologischer Landbau, Sömmerungsgebiet). Für das System sind Tests zur Messung der Prognosegüte des Systems entwickelt. 2. Ein Modul zur Darstellung der Umweltwirkungen von politischen Maßnahmen ist verfügbar. 3. Die Produktivitätsentwicklung der Schweizer Landwirtschaft in der Vergangenheit ist bekannt. 4. Grundlagen für die Finanzierungsbotschaft 2008-2011 sind bereitgestellt. 5. Kurzfristige Anfragen des BLW können im Rahmen der verfügbaren Ressourcen beantwortet werden. Problemstellung: Die Agrarpolitik verlangt quantitative, modellgestützte Prognosen über die Entwicklung des landwirtschaftlichen Sektors. Dazu bedarf es des Einsatzes von Modellsystemen, die auf aktualisierte Datengrundlagen und Methoden zurückgreifen und an die wechselnden Bedürfnisse der Politikberatung angepasst sind. Bisher können mit den vorhandenen sektoralen Systemen nur Produktions- und Einkommenseffekte prognostiziert werden. Über die ökologischen Auswirkungen können keine Aussagen gemacht werden. Diese sind allerdings für eine umfassende Beurteilung von agrarpolitischen Maßnahmen notwendig. Auch sind keine Angaben über die Prognosegüte des Modells möglich, welche die Transparenz und Akzeptanz der Modellergebnisse fördern. Im Bereich Analyse der Vergangenheitsentwicklung hat sich gezeigt, dass unzureichende Informationen über die Produktivitätsentwicklung der Landwirtschaft vorliegen. Aussagen über die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit des Agrarsektors werden jedoch zunehmend wichtiger zur Beurteilung der ökonomischen Nachhaltigkeit des schweizerischen Agrarsektors. Im Bereich Prognose gibt es bisher keine Informationen über die sektorale Einkommensentwicklung für den Zeitraum 2008-2011. Diese sind allerdings für die Ausgestaltung des Zahlungsrahmens von 2008-2011 von großer Bedeutung.

FP5-EESD, Interhemispheric Differences in Cirrus Properties from Anthropogenic Emissions

Objective/Problems to be solved: Recent assessments on environmental impacts from changes in atmospheric composition stress the importance of natural and anthropogenic changes in aerosols, which may influence ozone depletion and climate forcing. One topic of growing concern is the expected increase in use of aviation fuel, which may have substantial effects on coverage, thickness, and frequency of occurrence of cirrus clouds. High water vapour contents in combination with low temperatures make cirrus clouds potentially very important in converting reservoir species to active chlorine in the midlatitude tropopause region. These high ice clouds also play an important role to the Earth's climate system. In fact, the IPCC-Aviation report of 1999 states that the key uncertainty, which has to be overcome in the future for better assessing the climate impact from aviation, is the knowledge of contrail and aerosol impact on cirrus cloudiness. Scientific objectives and approach: Anthropogenic emissions predominantly occur in the Northern Hemisphere, which may result in a geographical difference in the effect by aerosols. Therefore, the objectives of the INCA project are to: I) Determine the difference in cirrus properties, which are of importance for climate and ozone distribution in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, in air masses with low and high aerosol loading. II) Provide a first set of data of the michrophysical and morphological properties of young cirrus clouds at southern and northern mid-latitudes, in relatively clean and polluted air masses, under otherwise comparable conditions. To meet the objectives, the INCA project conducts the first measurements ever performed of cirrus and aerosol properties in the Southern Hemisphere and compares these observations with comparable measurements performed in the Northern Hemisphere. The aircraft measurements provide information about aerosol and cirrus properties in regions with high and low aerosol loading and remote from localized sources at southern and northern mid-latitudes: at equal relative latitudes, in equivalent seasons, using the same set of instrumentation, using the same observation strategy, within the same year Expected impacts: The INCA project determines the background composition of the atmosphere in one of the cleanest and in one of the most polluted tropopause regions of the world. By contrasting these results a better insight about the influence of anthropogenic emissions on the change of atmospheric composition is achieved. Exploring new airspace in the Southern Hemisphere provides the necessary data to confirm an already present modulation of cirrus properties caused by anthropogenic emissions as well as the fix-points required to asses the impact from future changes in emission patterns. Prime Contractor: Stockholms Universitet, Institut of Applied Environmental Research Air Pollution Laboratory; Stockholm/Sweden.

FP5-EESD, Biodiversity and Human Impact in Shallow Lakes

Objective/Problems to be solved: If sustainable management and restoration of biodiversity is to be successful, it is important to have cost-effective methods for reliable large-scale monitoring of biodiversity, to be able to assess the current state of biodiversity, determine trends and patterns and to evaluate the effectiveness of restoration measures. In addition, there is an urgent need for tools to predict the effects of human activity and restoration measures on the biodiversity of target ecosystems. The proposed project aims at providing the necessary methodologies and tools (indices, indicator species lists, predictive mathematical models) for monitoring biodiversity and assessing human impact on biodiversity in a specific type of habitat that is important in many areas of Europe: mesotrophic to eutrophic shallow lakes that are subject to natural or cultural eutrophication. Shallow lakes are abundant in Europe, are ecologically and economically very important, and are subject to many threats. Scientific objectives and approach: The objectives of BIOMAN are (1) to develop reliable and cost-effective indices for measuring overall biodiversity in the water column of shallow water bodies; (2) to develop mathematical tools that allow prediction of the effects of human impact on biodiversity in shallow waters, including the prediction of the response to restoration measures; (3) to compile a database on the current state of biodiversity in a representative sample of European shallow bodies, covering the classical food web (fish, zooplankton, phytoplankton) as well as the microbial loop (bacterioplankton and heterotrophic protists), and also covering genetic diversity of zooplankton and diversity as measured through the egg bank; and (4) to develop a reliable method to evaluate the success of restoration measures. In a large-scale field survey covering 96 shallow standing waters along a north-south gradient in Europe, we focus on organisms occurring in the water column, belonging to the microbial loop (bacteria, heterotrophic nanoflagellates, ciliates) and the classical food web (phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish). The ponds and lakes studied differ widely in the degree of human impact (relatively pristine and successfully restored habitats versus heavily impacted ones), degree of isolation, structural diversity, nutrient loading and size. We compare different measures of biodiversity in terms of the indices used (e.g. Hill numbers), the functional resolution (trophic level), the type of biodiversity measured (taxon diversity, genetic diversity within taxa) and the approach used for taxon delimitation (morphological or genetic criteria)... Prime Contractor: Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Departement Biologie, Faculteit Wetenschappen, Laboratory of Aquatic Ecology; Leuven/Belgium.

Study and Monitoring of Insect Pests in Horticulture and Expertise in Registration of Insecticides

1. Fournir a la pratique les outils necessaires pour a. Diminuer l'emploi des insecticides en horticulture en appliquant les principes de la protection integree. Favoriser les associations de plantes capables de renforcer l'action des auxiliaires. b. Diminuer les couts de production. c. Ameliorer la qualite des produits agricoles. 2. Traiter les demandes d'homologation des insecticides en horticulture et realiser des essais biologiques si necessaire. 3. Faire une detection precoce par la surveillance de nouveaux ravageurs en horticulture. 4. Repondre aux besoins de l'inspectorat phytosanitaire federal, des offices techniques et de vulgarisation, et aux professionnels sur le plan de l'entomologie en horticulture. (FRA)

Grundlagen für Prognose und Überwachung von Schädlingen im Obst- und Gemüsebau unter aktuellen und zukünftigen klimatischen Bedingungen

1. Schnelle und zuverlässige Informationen über potenzielle Risiken sind für die Entscheidungsfindung im Pflanzenschutz essenziell, weshalb die verwendeten Prognose- und Überwachungswerkzeuge auf Grundlage der Biologie der betreffenden Schadorganismen ausgebaut und kontinuierlich weiterentwickelt werden müssen. 2. Zudem ergeben sich, mit der als Fakt anerkannten Klimaänderung, massive Änderungen im Schadenspotenzial durch modifizierte Lebenszyklen vorhandener Arten oder durch invasive Arten. Das Prognosesystem SOPRA bietet die Möglichkeit für eine kontinuierliche Weiterentwicklung und Ergänzung an Bedeutung gewinnender Arten. 3. Die entwickelten Artmodelle können weiterhin genutzt werden, um zukünftige klimatische Szenarien zu analysieren. Durch die umfassende Verfügbarkeit und Zuverlässigkeit von SOPRA sind positive Verhaltensänderungen der Praxis zu erwarten. 4. Durch das optimale Timing von Pflanzenschutzmaßnahmen können unnötige PSM-Applikationen vermieden, das Risiko für die Entwicklung von Resistenzen gesenkt und PSM-Rückstände reduziert werden. Gleichzeitig werden Ressourcen sowie Arbeitszeit eingespart und damit die Konkurrenzfähigkeit der Schweizer Spezialkulturen erhöht. 5. Dabei werden mit Einbindung der klimatischen Szenarien zukünftige Probleme frühzeitig identifiziert und bewertet, um entsprechende Maßnahmen zur Erhaltung der Nachhaltigkeit im Pflanzenschutz einzuleiten.

Quantifying Weather and Climate Impacts on Health in Developing Countries (QWECI)

Objective: One of the most dramatic and immediate impacts of climate variation is that on disease, especially the vector-borne diseases that disproportionally affect the poorest people in Africa. Although we can clearly see that, for example, an El Nino event triggers Rift Valley Fever epidemics, we remain poor at understanding why particular areas are vulnerable and how this will change in coming decades, since climate change is likely to cause entirely new global disease distributions. This applies to most vector borne disease. At the same time, we do not know currently the limit of predictability of the specific climate drivers for vector-borne disease using state-of-the-art seasonal forecast models, and how best to use these to produce skilful infection-rate predictions on seasonal timescales. The QWeCI project thus aims to understand at a more fundamental level the climate drivers of the vector-borne diseases of malaria, Rift Valley Fever, and certain tick-borne diseases, which all have major human and livestock health and economic implications in Africa, in order to assist with their short-term management and make projections of their future likely impacts. QWeCI will develop and test the methods and technology required for an integrated decision support framework for health impacts of climate and weather. Uniquely, QWeCl will bring together the best in world integrated weather/climate forecasting systems with heath impacts modelling and climate change research groups in order to build an end-to-end seamless integration of climate and weather information for the quantification and prediction of climate and weather on health impacts in Africa.

Models for Assessing and Forecasting the Impact of Environmental Key Pollutants on Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems and Biodiversity - MODELKEY

MODELKEY comprises a mulitdisciplinary approach aiming at developing interlinked and verified predictive modelling tools as well as state-of-the-art effect-assessment and analytical methods generally applicable to European freshwater and marine ecosystems: 1) to assess, forecast, and mitigate the risks of traditional and recently evolving pollutants on fresh water and marine ecosystems and their biodiversity at a river basin and adjacent marine environment scale, 2) to provide early warning strategies on the basis of sub-lethal effects in vitro and in vivo, 3) to provide a better understanding of cause-effect-relationships between changes in biodiversity and the ecological status, as addressed by the Water Framework Directive, and the impact of environmental pollution as causative factor, 4) to provide methods for state-of-the-art risk assessment and decision support systems for the selection of the most efficient management options to prevent effects on biodiversity and to prioritise contamination sources and contaminated sites, 5) to strengthen the scientific knowledge on an European level in the field of impact assessment of environmental pollution on aquatic eco-systems and their biodiversity by extensive training activities and knowledge dissemination to stakeholders and the scientific community. This goal shall be achieved by combining innovative predictive tools for modelling exposure on a river basin scale including the estuary and the coastal zone, for modelling effects on higher levels of biological organisation with powerful assessment tools for the identification of key modes of action, key toxicants and key parameters determining exposure. The developed tools will be verified in case studies representing European key areas including Mediterranean, Western and Central European river basins. An end-user-directed decision support system will be provided for cost-effective tool selection and appropriate risk and site prioritisation.

FP5-EESD, Extinction Risks and the Re-Introduction of Plant Species in a Fragmented Europe

Objective/Problems to be solved: It is every day experience in many European countries that the landscape is changing rapidly because of the multiplicity of demands on space made by e.g. agriculture, transport, recreation, city expansion. These human activities often develop at the expense of the habitats of wild plants and animals and their chances for survival resulting in a world wide decline in biodiversity. These conflicting demands on space require national but also European measures for the conservation of wildlife as detailed in the EU Habitats Directive and the Flora and Fauna Directive. A lot of conservation effort goes into restoring habitat quality, but we are now beginning to see that this is not enough to save rare and threatened species. This is simply because threatened species have dispersal problems in fragmented habitats. The remnant populations have become too small and too widely dispersed and these species therefore are unable to re-colonise the improved habitats. This is especially true for sessile long-lived organisms such as most plants. As a consequence an alarming, steadily increasing number of plant species appear on national red-data lists. What is lacking however, is an evaluation of the status of endangered plants on a European scale, considering their area of distribution as a whole, as plants have no nationality, in combination with an assessment of the chances for re-introduction as a conservation measure. Such a combination can help to make better environmental impact assessments and to reconcile conflicting demands on space. Scientific objectives and approach: The scientific objectives of the TRANSPLANT program are twofold: to investigate the extinction risks of plant species in fragmenting landscapes across Europe and secondly to develop scientifically sound re-introduction schemes and test their effectiveness. To achieve these goals, we will use a selected number of plant species that differ in their capacity to move across landscapes. This depends on two crucial traits: the longevity of adults and the dispersal capacity of seeds. The first trait determines the capacity to hold territory and function as a source of seeds in the landscape. The second trait affects the capacity to colonise new territory and settle elsewhere. Using these species as our guinea pigs we will built our expertise in a hierarchical, step-like fashion. First we need to know how isolation and small population size in remnants of these species have affected their genetic variation or in other words their capacity to adapt to changing environments. Than we will go on and measure longevity and dispersal capacity in the field in populations that differ in size and degree of isolation across their area of distribution. Prime Contractor: Katholieke Universiteit Nijmegen, Department of ecology and environment - Faculty of science; Nijmegen.

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