Das Projekt "Grundlagen für die Prognose, Überwachung und nachhaltige Regulierung von Schädlingen im Obst- und Freilandgemüsebau" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Agroscope, Institut für Pflanzenbauwissenschaften IPB durchgeführt. Die hohen Ansprüche an die Qualität von Obst und Gemüse führen zu einer besonders geringen Tole-ranz für Beeinträchtigungen durch Schädlinge. Deshalb muss deren wirkungsvolle und umweltschonende Regulierung auch in Zukunft garantiert sein, selbst unter dem Einfluss des Klimawandels und beim Auftreten neuer invasiver Arten. Als Grundlage für die Überwachung und für neue Integrierte Bekämpfungsstrategien liefert das Tätigkeitsfeld Kenntnisse über die Biologie von Schädlingen (Insekten, Milben) und Nützlingen in den Agrarökosystemen des Obstbaus und des Freilandgemüsebaus. Es stellt Phänologiemodelle und Entscheidungshilfesysteme (Decision support systems DSS) für die Praxis und für die vorausschauende Beurteilung von Folgen des Klimawandels bereit, entwickelt biologische und biotechnische Pflanzenschutzmassnahmen und stellt die Diagnostik von Quarantäneschädlingen sicher. Dies Arbeiten leisten signifikante Beiträge zu den thematischen Schwerpunkten 'Ökologische Intensivierung' sowie 'Klimaschutz und Anpassung an Klimawandel'. Die Leistungen erfolgen schwerpunktmässig im Bereich des Kernthemas 'Verbesserung der Pflanzenproduktion, insbesondere unter Einbezug von Pflanzenschutz, Sorten und Saat- und Pflanzgut'. In diesem Projekt werden Leistungen bei der Diagnostik von Quarantäneschädlingen zur Verfügung gestellt (in Zusammenarbeit mit FB 12 Diagnostik und Risikobeurteilung Pflanzenschutz) und wissenschaftliche Unterstützung für die kantonalen Fachstellen geboten.
Das Projekt "Grundlagen für Prognose und Überwachung von Schädlingen im Obst- und Gemüsebau unter aktuellen und zukünftigen klimatischen Bedingungen" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Forschungsanstalt Agroscope, Changins-Wädenswil ACW Changins durchgeführt. 1. Schnelle und zuverlässige Informationen über potenzielle Risiken sind für die Entscheidungsfindung im Pflanzenschutz essenziell, weshalb die verwendeten Prognose- und Überwachungswerkzeuge auf Grundlage der Biologie der betreffenden Schadorganismen ausgebaut und kontinuierlich weiterentwickelt werden müssen. 2. Zudem ergeben sich, mit der als Fakt anerkannten Klimaänderung, massive Änderungen im Schadenspotenzial durch modifizierte Lebenszyklen vorhandener Arten oder durch invasive Arten. Das Prognosesystem SOPRA bietet die Möglichkeit für eine kontinuierliche Weiterentwicklung und Ergänzung an Bedeutung gewinnender Arten. 3. Die entwickelten Artmodelle können weiterhin genutzt werden, um zukünftige klimatische Szenarien zu analysieren. Durch die umfassende Verfügbarkeit und Zuverlässigkeit von SOPRA sind positive Verhaltensänderungen der Praxis zu erwarten. 4. Durch das optimale Timing von Pflanzenschutzmaßnahmen können unnötige PSM-Applikationen vermieden, das Risiko für die Entwicklung von Resistenzen gesenkt und PSM-Rückstände reduziert werden. Gleichzeitig werden Ressourcen sowie Arbeitszeit eingespart und damit die Konkurrenzfähigkeit der Schweizer Spezialkulturen erhöht. 5. Dabei werden mit Einbindung der klimatischen Szenarien zukünftige Probleme frühzeitig identifiziert und bewertet, um entsprechende Maßnahmen zur Erhaltung der Nachhaltigkeit im Pflanzenschutz einzuleiten.
Das Projekt "Quantifying Weather and Climate Impacts on Health in Developing Countries (QWECI)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von University Liverpool durchgeführt. Objective: One of the most dramatic and immediate impacts of climate variation is that on disease, especially the vector-borne diseases that disproportionally affect the poorest people in Africa. Although we can clearly see that, for example, an El Nino event triggers Rift Valley Fever epidemics, we remain poor at understanding why particular areas are vulnerable and how this will change in coming decades, since climate change is likely to cause entirely new global disease distributions. This applies to most vector borne disease. At the same time, we do not know currently the limit of predictability of the specific climate drivers for vector-borne disease using state-of-the-art seasonal forecast models, and how best to use these to produce skilful infection-rate predictions on seasonal timescales. The QWeCI project thus aims to understand at a more fundamental level the climate drivers of the vector-borne diseases of malaria, Rift Valley Fever, and certain tick-borne diseases, which all have major human and livestock health and economic implications in Africa, in order to assist with their short-term management and make projections of their future likely impacts. QWeCI will develop and test the methods and technology required for an integrated decision support framework for health impacts of climate and weather. Uniquely, QWeCl will bring together the best in world integrated weather/climate forecasting systems with heath impacts modelling and climate change research groups in order to build an end-to-end seamless integration of climate and weather information for the quantification and prediction of climate and weather on health impacts in Africa.
Das Projekt "Improving Preparedness and Risk Management for flash floods and debris flow events (IMPRINTS)" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universidad Politecnica Barcelona durchgeführt. The aim of IMPRINTS is to contribute to reduce loss of life and economic damage through the improvement of the preparedness and the operational risk management for Flash Flood and Debris Flow (FF/DF) generating events, as well as to contribute to sustainable development through reducing damages to the environment. To achieve this ultimate objective the project is oriented to produce methods and tools to be used by emergency agencies and utility companies responsible for the management of FF/DF risks and associated effects. Impacts of future changes, including climatic, land use and socioeconomic will be analyzed in order to provide guidelines for mitigation and adaptation measures. Specifically, the consortium will develop an integrated probabilistic forecasting FF/ DF system as well as a probabilistic early warning and a rule-based probabilistic forecasting system adapted to the operational use by practitioners. These systems will be tested on five selected flash flood prone areas, two located in mountainous catchments in the Alps, and three in Mediterranean catchments. The IMPRINTS practitioner partners, risk management authorities and utility company managers in duty of emergency management in these areas, will supervise these tests. The development of such systems will be carried out using and capitalizing the results of previous and ongoing research on FF/DF forecasting and warning systems, in which several of the partners have played a prominent role. One major result of the project will be a operational prototype including the tools and methodologies developed under the project. This prototype will be designed under the premise of its ultimate commercialization and use worldwide. The consortium, covering all the actors involved in the complex chain of FF & DF forecasting, has been carefully selected to ensure the achievement of this. Specific actions to exploit and protect the results and the intellectual property of the partners have been also defined.
Das Projekt "Models for Assessing and Forecasting the Impact of Environmental Key Pollutants on Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems and Biodiversity - MODELKEY" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung GmbH durchgeführt. MODELKEY comprises a mulitdisciplinary approach aiming at developing interlinked and verified predictive modelling tools as well as state-of-the-art effect-assessment and analytical methods generally applicable to European freshwater and marine ecosystems: 1) to assess, forecast, and mitigate the risks of traditional and recently evolving pollutants on fresh water and marine ecosystems and their biodiversity at a river basin and adjacent marine environment scale, 2) to provide early warning strategies on the basis of sub-lethal effects in vitro and in vivo, 3) to provide a better understanding of cause-effect-relationships between changes in biodiversity and the ecological status, as addressed by the Water Framework Directive, and the impact of environmental pollution as causative factor, 4) to provide methods for state-of-the-art risk assessment and decision support systems for the selection of the most efficient management options to prevent effects on biodiversity and to prioritise contamination sources and contaminated sites, 5) to strengthen the scientific knowledge on an European level in the field of impact assessment of environmental pollution on aquatic eco-systems and their biodiversity by extensive training activities and knowledge dissemination to stakeholders and the scientific community. This goal shall be achieved by combining innovative predictive tools for modelling exposure on a river basin scale including the estuary and the coastal zone, for modelling effects on higher levels of biological organisation with powerful assessment tools for the identification of key modes of action, key toxicants and key parameters determining exposure. The developed tools will be verified in case studies representing European key areas including Mediterranean, Western and Central European river basins. An end-user-directed decision support system will be provided for cost-effective tool selection and appropriate risk and site prioritisation.
Das Projekt "Extinction Risks and the Re-Introduction of Plant Species in a Fragmented Europe" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Marburg, Fachbereich Biologie durchgeführt. Objective/Problems to be solved: It is every day experience in many European countries that the landscape is changing rapidly because of the multiplicity of demands on space made by e.g. agriculture, transport, recreation, city expansion. These human activities often develop at the expense of the habitats of wild plants and animals and their chances for survival resulting in a world wide decline in biodiversity. These conflicting demands on space require national but also European measures for the conservation of wildlife as detailed in the EU Habitats Directive and the Flora and Fauna Directive. A lot of conservation effort goes into restoring habitat quality, but we are now beginning to see that this is not enough to save rare and threatened species. This is simply because threatened species have dispersal problems in fragmented habitats. The remnant populations have become too small and too widely dispersed and these species therefore are unable to re-colonise the improved habitats. This is especially true for sessile long-lived organisms such as most plants. As a consequence an alarming, steadily increasing number of plant species appear on national red-data lists. What is lacking however, is an evaluation of the status of endangered plants on a European scale, considering their area of distribution as a whole, as plants have no nationality, in combination with an assessment of the chances for re-introduction as a conservation measure. Such a combination can help to make better environmental impact assessments and to reconcile conflicting demands on space. Scientific objectives and approach: The scientific objectives of the TRANSPLANT program are twofold: to investigate the extinction risks of plant species in fragmenting landscapes across Europe and secondly to develop scientifically sound re-introduction schemes and test their effectiveness. To achieve these goals, we will use a selected number of plant species that differ in their capacity to move across landscapes. This depends on two crucial traits: the longevity of adults and the dispersal capacity of seeds. The first trait determines the capacity to hold territory and function as a source of seeds in the landscape. The second trait affects the capacity to colonise new territory and settle elsewhere. Using these species as our guinea pigs we will built our expertise in a hierarchical, step-like fashion. First we need to know how isolation and small population size in remnants of these species have affected their genetic variation or in other words their capacity to adapt to changing environments. Than we will go on and measure longevity and dispersal capacity in the field in populations that differ in size and degree of isolation across their area of distribution. Prime Contractor: Katholieke Universiteit Nijmegen, Department of ecology and environment - Faculty of science; Nijmegen.
Das Projekt "European Project on Cloud Systems in Climate Models" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie durchgeführt. Objective/Problems to be solved: Current climate models contain important deficiencies in the representation of cloud systems. Well known symptoms, when comparing model simulation of the present climate with observations, are the lack of stratocumulus over the ocean, of incorrect diurnal cycle of cumulus and precipitating deep convection over continents, and lack of sensitivity of deep convection development to the moisture profile. Clouds remain one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate change predictions. Scientific objectives and approach: The strategy to address these issues is based on the use of the hierarchy of models and observations to integrate cloud studies across the full range of scales. Numerical models range from General Circulation Models (GCM) through Single Column models (SCM) to Cloud Resolving Models (CRM) and Large Eddy Simulations (LES). Observations, which will be used, vary from global satellite measurements to local observations of individual clouds through lidar and millimetric radar. A comprehensive 4-D database will be established using several LES models and CRMs of specific cases. These cases relate to the critical problems noted above associated with the prediction of clouds in regional and global climate and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The LES/CRM datasets will be used to investigate deficiencies in climate and NWP models using 9 different SCMs as a test bed. Specific issues to be addressed will be the general failure of regional and global models to predict stratocumulus amounts, the diurnal triggering of boundary layer convection and deep precipitating convection over land, and the lack of sensitivity of deep convection development on moisture profile in these models. Once reasons for deficiencies have been identified, physically based corrections will be introduced in SCMs and GCMs. The project will aim to improve climate and NWP models ability to represent both the mean structure (horizontally and vertically) and time variability of cloud water and amount for the critical cases defined above. Six different European climate models will participate. Expected impacts: The results will help narrowing the uncertainties in global and regional climate models and climate predictions. The results will also be important for weather prediction and may contribute to better forecast of severe precipitation events and flooding. Prime Contractor: Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques; Toulouse.
Das Projekt "Effects of the oxidation of aromatic compounds in the troposphere - EXACT" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Universität Wuppertal, Physikalische Chemie durchgeführt. Objective: Problems to be solved: Aromatic compounds are emitted to the atmosphere from transport and industrial sources and oxidised in the troposphere. This process has a substantial impact on the formation of ozone and of photochemical smog on a European scale, and on the oxidising capacity of the atmosphere and hence on global warming. The oxidation of aromatic compounds also leads to the formation of secondary aerosols, with impacts on health and on climate. A quantitative understanding of the chemical mechanisms for oxidation of the major aromatic compounds is needed for the construction of models for both predictive and legislative applications and for the assessment of environmental impact. Recent laboratory studies have demonstrated considerable uncertainties in our present understanding of the atmospheric oxidation of aromatics and have seriously questioned our ability to assess the atmospheric impact of aromatic compounds. The major aim of the project is a detailed laboratory investigation of the mechanism and the construction and application of a model, based on the experimental results, to assess the atmospheric impact of aromatic emissions on European and global scales. Scientific objectives and approach. The project consists of four main components: In the laboratory experiments, laser flash photolysis is used to probe the chemistry of the early stages of the oxidation process, using absorption spectroscopy. A key element is the behaviour of adducts formed by the addition of the hydroxyl radical to the aromatic compounds. The subsequent chemistry is probed using photochemical reactor studies, coupled with a range of analytical techniques, such as Fourier transform infra red spectroscopy and gas chromatography. A key component of the strategy is the synthesis of important intermediates to test the hypotheses that are developed. The overall description of the oxidation of the major volatile organic compounds emitted to the atmosphere is contained in a master chemical mechanisms (MCM). The experimental results allow revision of the aromatic component of the MCM, which is then used to design experiments to test the proposed mechanisms. These experiments are conducted in the European Photochemical Reactor (EUPHORE) at Valencia in Spain. The EUPHORE experiments are conducted under conditions close to those pertaining in the atmosphere and provide a credible test of the MCM and hence of the laboratory experiments. Crucial experiments include the yield of ozone in aromatic oxidation, but the extensive instrumentation in EUPHORE permits a wide range of detailed experimental checks on the MCM. In addition, other experiments allow investigation of the formation of secondary organic aerosol. Prime Contractor: University of Leeds, School of Chemistry; Leeds.
Das Projekt "Metrics of Climate Change" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Oberpfaffenhofen durchgeführt. Objective/Problems to be solved: In order to quantify the potential climate impact of changing atmospheric constituents such as 'greenhouse gases' two simple measures have been used, namely 'Global Warming Potential' (GWP) and 'Radiative Forcing' (RF). These measures are convenient 'metrics' allowing estimation of potential climate change in terms of e.g. global mean temperatures from an emission into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases. It has recently been found, however, that these metrics have shortcomings, in particular when considering short lived, chemically active and not well mixed chemical species. Scientific objectives and approach: The objectives are to assess current metrics of climate change e.g. Radiative Forcing and Global Warming Potential as used in the Kyoto Protocol, to refine metrics of climate change suitable for climate forcing agents arising from inhomogeneously distributed perturbations of the atmosphere e.g. aerosols, ozone, contrails and from gases with different levels of thermal infrared optical thickness and different atmospheric adjustment times e.g. CO2 versus CH4 and to evaluate the refined metrics with respect to their usefulness for policy makers. Several cases of localised emission perturbations of ozone precursors will be defined. Using two different chemical transport models, the indirect impact on ozone and other greenhouse gases (e.g., methane) will be calculated and radiative forcing will be determined. Idealised and realistic cases of perturbations of climate change agents will be defined. The equilibrium climate responses to these forcings will be compared using three different general circulation models, and the causes of disagreement will be analysed. A review of available metrics of climate change will be made. Available metrics (like radiative forcing and global warming potential) will be applied to the simulations. Finally, on this basis it will be assessed in which cases the current metrics are sufficiently good predictors of climate change. Refined metrics will be developed and it will be assessed under which circumstances metrics are good predictors of climate change. The requirements of policy makers for metrics of climate change will be discussed and formulated. Current and refined metrics will be assessed with respect to their applicability as tools for decision making. Expected impacts: The project will contribute to a further development of environmentally effective policy measures under e.g. the UNFCCC and to better control and regulation of anthropogenic impact on the atmosphere and climate.
Das Projekt "Measurement of Ozone, Water Vapour, Carbon Monoxide and Nitrogen Oxides by Airbus In-Service Aircraft (MOZAIC-III) - 03 and H2O Budgets in the UT/LS" wird vom Umweltbundesamt gefördert und von Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Institut für Chemie und Dynamik der Geosphäre durchgeführt. Objective/Problems to be solved: The project proposes actions to detect, understand, assess and predict global change processes and to contribute to the European component of the global observing systems. It answers to interrogations of the origin, budget and evolution in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) of chemical species (ozone, water vapour) which have impact on air quality and climate, with special attention to the impact of aircraft emissions. Scientific objectives and approach: The MOZAIC-III project is designed for the evaluation of ozone and water vapour budgets in the tropopause region. It takes full advantage of the measuring capabilities of the in-service aircraft already equipped and of the database (O3, H2O) built up since August 1994. The purpose is to improve the current understanding on the processes active in this region of the atmosphere (UT/LS), and particularly on the aircraft impact. MOZAIC-III corresponds to installation, on the aircraft measuring units, of new CO and NOy devices and to the extension of the existing database of O3 and H2O measurements below 12 km altitude with simultaneous measurements of CO and NOy, in order to better characterise the origin of the air parcels sampled and the combined effects of transport and chemistry. The database is opened to the European research community. Data are analysed using statistical correlation, modelling of chemistry and dynamics, satellite data (ENVISAT, METEOSAT, TOVS) and assimilation methods. The duration of the series over almost 9 years allows to analyse trends, interannual variability, and correlations between species. The numerous data collected at a quasi global scale are used to improve current understanding of tropospheric chemical and dynamical processes and to quantify the ozone budget in the UT/LS region: stratospheric contribution, transport of pollution from PBL, free tropospheric formation, productions from NOx emitted by aircraft and NOx induced by lightning, surface deposition, chemical losses. The relation between upper tropospheric water vapour and sea surface temperature over tropical, sub-tropical and mid-latitude regions is investigated. Expected impacts: From the whole set of data collected since 1994, it is expected to assess the budget and trends of ozone and water vapour in the UT/LS, to reduce uncertainties on stratosphere/troposphere exchanges, to improve existing 3D CTM models and to better quantify the impact of subsonic aircraft. These results are of major concern for the evaluation of climate change. Prime Contractor: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UMR 5560, Laboratoire d'Aerologie; Toulouse/France.
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